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For a BYU record-extending fourth consecutive year, the Cougars head into the offseason coming off a bowl victory. Bronco Mendenhall's team has finished with a winning record for the seventh consecutive season--the longest such run since LaVell Edwards put together a string of 17 straight winning seasons from 1976 through 1992.
But despite the relative consistency of success, all is not well with the Cougars, and there is work to be done--specifically on the offensive side of the ball.
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Since the departures of quarterback Max Hall, running back Harvey Unga and tight end Dennis Pitta after the 2009 season, BYU has suffered through its worst three-season stretch of offensive football since the final three years of the Gary Crowton era, from 2002 through 2004. The interceding five years end up as a period of productivity book-ended by three-year dips.
Presented that way, over the last 11 campaigns, there have been more poor offensive seasons than prolific ones. At BYU, that won't do.
Under Mendenhall's oversight (he has served as defensive play-caller for six and a half of his eight seasons as head coach), BYU's defensive performance has been generally steady and often outstanding, with very few deviations from a norm that ranks BYU in the top quartile of FBS teams on an annual basis.
In 2012, the BYU defense was the best of the Mendenhall era, and arguably the best defense in the modern era of Cougar football. The defense was so good that the resulting 8-5 record feels like more of a disappointment than an accomplishment.
What could BYU have achieved in 2012 with a proficient offense, instead of one that ranked in the bottom half of the FBS in most pertinent statistics? The speculative answer to that question may help determine to what extent the offensive staff and the offense itself undergo changes before the 2013 season kicks off at Virginia a little more than eight months from now.
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Bronco-era metrics may be easier to assess on one side of the ball than the other, since Mendenhall has essentially been the wagon master for the defense since the get-go in 2005, while the offense has seen two coordinators in Robert Anae (2005 through 2010) and Brandon Doman (2011-2012).
Notably, of BYU's seven NFL draft picks during Mendenhall's tenure, only one--LB Bryan Kehl--came from the defensive side of the ball, while six offensive players were picked. It could be argued that Mendenhall's defense has done a lot with a little, with the offense taking clear advantage of pro talent that included players at or near the top of BYU's career lists for their respective positions.
Considering the performance of the 2012 defense, it is not coincidental that BYU's current team features at least two projected NFL draft picks on defense, underscoring the equation that is: sound scheme + pro personnel = statistical success/dominance.
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The 2012 BYU offense showcased one potential NFL draftee in wide receiver Cody Hoffman, but the inconsistency at quarterback and relative lack of productivity in the run game gave Hoffman's numbers a parenthetical feel, despite his importance to an offense that had little else on which it relied.
Certainly, the caliber of players has a great deal to do with the performance on either side of the ball, and from 2005 through 2009, BYU put on the field some of the best offensive performers ever to play for the Cougars in John Beck, Hall, Curtis Brown, Austin Collie, Pitta and Unga. In the last three seasons, only Hoffman has truly stood out as a would-be career stat leader, with freshman running back Jamaal Williams having shown considerable promise in 2012.
In Jake Heaps, BYU coaches presumed they had the next great quarterback to fill the shoes of Beck and Hall, but the early weeks of 2011 set the table for his departure, and the ensuing philosophical and tactical shift at that position--from pocket to mobile QB--has had far-reaching consequences, inviting a debate that will likely be re-visited in the current offseason of assessment.
From multiple skill positions to offensive line, BYU has struggled over the last three seasons, but while injuries have hit the O-line particularly hard--and the front five cannot be overlooked as a significant area of concern--the reasons for that struggle appear to have as much to do with personnel deployment/scheme/identity as with the personnel situation itself.
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2010 is an interesting case, since the offensive coordinator responsible for the good years from 2005 through 2009 was also calling plays for a down offensive year in '10. Of course, that season was not only the first without Hall, Pitta and Unga, but also represented the debut of a doomed two-QB system platooning Heaps and Riley Nelson.
Nelson's season-ending injury saw BYU and Anae turn to a just-out-high-school freshman to run the team for the majority of the season, which was essentially an unprecedented situation. Heaps struggled early, ended strongly, but a new coordinator gave him five games in 2011 before pulling the trigger on a switch and ushering in a new way of play under center.
So, then, how to best assess the BYU offense during the Mendenhall era? By comparing the first five seasons to the last three, or the first six (under Robert Anae) to the last two (Brandon Doman)?
While Anae's last season in charge of the BYU offense brought the six-season averages down a bit, it is still probably best to assess his tenure as a defined era, then compare those numbers to Doman's through two seasons. Also helpful is to view the numbers in complete context, so let's do both, in addition to seeing how the defense has stacked up nationally in the Bronco Mendenhall era.
BYU Offense in the Bronco Mendenhall Era, Annual Performance and FBS Rankings
| Season, Coord. | Rush Offense | Rank | Pass Offense | Rank | Pass Efficiency Rating | Rank | Total Offense | Rank | Scoring Offense | Rank | 3rd Down Conv. | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 Anae | 152.3 ypg | 51st | 310.1 ypg | 6th | 137.1 | 32nd | 462.4 ypg | 13th | 33.0 ppg | 24th | 44.8% | 17th |
| 2006 Anae | 141.9 ypg | 53rd | 323.5 ypg | 4th | 167.1 | 2nd | 465.5 ypg | 4th | 36.8 ppg | 5th | 56.0% | 2nd |
| 2007 Anae | 144.4 ypg | 67th | 298.4 ypg | 14th | 136.3 | 28th | 442.8 ypg | 25th | 30.1 ppg | 47th | 45.1% | 21st |
| 2008 Anae | 134.4 ypg | 70th | 310.4 ypg | 6th | 155.1 | 13th | 444.8 ypg | 16th | 34.2 ppg | 20th | 55.7% | 2nd |
| 2009 Anae | 145.7 ypg | 63rd | 281.5 ypg | 17th | 160.8 | 3rd | 427.2 ypg | 21st | 35.5 ppg | 11th | 55.6% | 1st |
| 2010 Anae | 168.1 ypg | 42nd | 198.4 ypg | 76th | 115.4 | 99th | 366.5 ypg | 73rd | 26.2 ppg | 70th | 46.2% | 21st |
| 2011 Doman | 160.3 ypg | 55th | 245.4 ypg | 47th | 127.7 | 64th | 405.7 ypg | 41st | 30.1 ppg | 42nd | 51.3% | 5th |
| 2012 Doman | 153.2 ypg | 69th | 247.2 ypg | 51st | 123.4 | 85th | 400.4 ypg | 60th | 28.7 ppg | 67th | 45.8% | 29th |
Robert Anae v. Brandon Doman; BYU Offense, by Coordinator in the Mendenhall Era
| Robert Anae (six seasons, 2005-2010) | Brandon Doman (two seasons, 2011-2012) | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Rush Offense Rank | 57.7 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pass Offense Rank | 20.5 | 49.0 |
| Avg Pass Efficiency Rank | 29.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Total Offense Rank | 25.3 | 50.5 |
| Avg Scoring Offense Rank | 29.5 | 54.5 |
| Avg 3rd Down Conversion Rank | 10.7 | 17.0 |
| Top 25 Rush Offense | 0 times | 0 times |
| Top 25 Pass Offense | 5 times | 0 times |
| Top 25 Pass Efficiency | 3 times | 0 times |
| Top 25 Total Offense | 5 times | 0 times |
| Top 25 Scoring Offense | 4 times | 0 times |
| Top 25 3rd Down Conversion | 6 times | 1 time |
| Best-ranked Rush Offense | 42nd (2010) | 55th (2011) |
| Best-ranked Pass Offense | 4th (2006) | 47th (2011) |
| Best-ranked Pass Efficiency | 2nd (2006) | 64th (2011) |
| Best-ranked Total Offense | 4th (2006) | 41st (2011) |
| Best-ranked Scoring Offense | 5th (2006) | 42nd (2011) |
| Best-ranked 3rd Down Conversion | 1st (2009) | 5th (2011) |
BYU Defense in the Bronco Mendenhall Era, Annual Performance and FBS Rankings
| Season | Rush Defense | Rank | Pass Defense | Rank | Pass Efficiency Defense Rating | Rank | Total Defense | Rank | Scoring Defense | Rank | 3rd Down Conversion Defense | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 147.8 ypg | 57th | 269.3 ypg | 104th | 144.8 | 105th | 417.1 ypg | 91st | 29.3 ppg | 83rd | 42.6% | 90th |
| 2006 | 114.1 ypg | 31st | 205.1 ypg | 65th | 106.2 | 16th | 319.2 ypg | 38th | 14.7 ppg | 10th | 32.8% | 25th |
| 2007 | 97.5 ypg | 9th | 210.4 ypg | 32nd | 110.4 | 18th | 307.9 ypg | 10th | 18.5 ppg | 9th | 35.5% | 32nd |
| 2008 | 140.3 ypg | 60th | 215.6 ypg | 74th | 128.0 | 64th | 355.9 ypg | 59th | 21.9 ppg | 39th | 46.2% | 104th |
| 2009 | 110.2 ypg | 21st | 218.9 ypg | 62nd | 118.6 | 38th | 329.1 ypg | 28th | 21.5 ppg | 29th | 38.3% | 55th |
| 2010 | 138.6 ypg | 45th | 192.2 ypg | 23rd | 116.9 | 32nd | 330.9 ypg | 24th | 21.6 ppg | 32nd | 40.3% | 66th |
| 2011 | 112.5 ypg | 19th | 200.9 ypg | 32nd | 112.6 | 15th | 313.4 ypg | 13th | 20.4 ppg | 22nd | 37.0% | 42nd |
| 2012 | 86.9 ypg | 2nd | 179.2 ypg | 13th | 112.5 | 20th | 266.1 ypg | 3rd | 14.0 ppg | 4th | 26.5% | 1st |
BYU's Average FBS Defensive Rankings, Mendenhall Era
| Category | Average Ranking (2005-2012) |
|---|---|
| Rush Defense | 30.5 |
| Pass Defense | 50.6 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 38.5 |
| Total Defense | 33.3 |
| Scoring Defense | 28.5 |
| 3rd Down Conversion Defense | 51.9 |
Notes:
2012 FBS rankings are through 12/22/2012
Number of FBS teams ranked--2005: 117, 2006-2008-: 119, 2009-2012: 120
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In short, BYU has things pretty much figured out on defense, under the guidance of a head coach who could also be considered a sort of mastermind on that side of the ball.
Offensively, BYU's identity underwent a transition in the final season of Robert Anae's tenure, and then a major modification under Brandon Doman. Though the sample size is small, and Doman may simply need a bit more time to steady his feet, the two-season results are lacking, compared to where BYU has been, and to where the program needs to be, so that results like the ones achieved by the 2012 defense produce a commensurate reward in the win-loss column.
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While BYU's punt game was among the nation's best in 2012 (2nd in net punting, with Riley Stephenson 8th in punting average) and contributed to the Cougars's consistent edge in average starting field position, BYU's placekicking woes over the last two seasons have prevented the Cougars from utilizing field goals as a consistent tactical weapon. The Cougars also missed six PAT attempts in 2012, after not missing a single point-after in 2011.
After a 6-for-12 season on field goal attempts in 2012, Justin Sorensen is now 22-for-40 on field goal attempts for his career--a 55% success rate. Outside of 40 yards, Sorensen is 5-for-15, with a career long of 46 yards. His long field goal made in the 2012 season was 35 yards (Stephenson's season-long FG was 33 yards), making the 2012 the first season since 1988 that BYU did not record a single field goal longer than 40 yards.
Having dealt with a variety of injuries since leaving Bingham High School as the nation's top-ranked placekicker, Sorensen has never regained his prep prowess. With a single season remaining in his BYU career, it's hoped Sorensen can get healthy and still make an impact. BYU has to replace Stephenson, but the Cougars did bring in a walk-on punter in Scott Arellano, who played at Foothill JC before transferring to BYU for 2012.
(Note: Thanks to reader Brandon Bitter for reminding me that K Corey Edwards is a season away from returning from is mission, and that the Cougars have Arellano in the wings. Bitter maintains an excellent website for tracking comings and goings of current Cougars: byuroster.com
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The Cougars should be applauded for finishing the season out right and heading into the winter on a positive note. BYU was in all 13 games of the 2012 season into the fourth quarter and indeed had a legitimate chance to tie or win 12 of the games in its final drive.
The fact BYU didn't squeeze out more than eight wins will mean a comprehensive examination from the top down in the days and weeks to come. It will be interesting to see which changes are already in place when spring ball gets underway.
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