Romney edging toward 'magic number' with Tuesday's primaries


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SALT LAKE CITY -- Republican presidential primaries loom in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia today, and there are still no signs of giving up from the Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich campaigns, despite a strong delegate lead for Mitt Romney and a slew of prominent GOP endorsements lining up in favor of the former Massachusetts governor.

Heading into Tuesday's primaries, Romney led in the delegate count according to various delegate tracking surveys with 572 delegates. Santorum was second with 273. Gingrich lagged in a distant third with 135.

What Romney's "magic number" is - when the other candidates drop out and acknowledge him as the nominee - remains unclear.

At the University of Utah, associate professor of political science Matthew Burbank acknowledged it's a tough question.

"I'm not sure there is a magic number," Burbank said. "Certainly 1,144 is the magic number in the sense that if he gets that many delegates, then it's clear he's going to win on the first ballot - which is ordinarily the case for nominations."

Of the delegates at stake to this point, Romney has accrued roughly 55 percent of the total. If that trend continues, he will secure the nomination ahead of the GOP convention.

On the other hand, the race could wrap up at an earlier date. Burbank observed the campaign trail increasingly favors Romney.

"We're at a point now where we've got a number of big Northeastern or Midwestern states coming up where Romney can expect to do well," Burbank said. "Many of these states are winner-take-all, and so I think the Romney campaign should be looking at this feeling very good about being able to wrap up the nomination fairly quickly."

Though the GOP primary campaign has been something of a protracted process, even some Democrats concede it may not be a bad thing for Romney.

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"I don't think this is going to hurt Mitt Romney a bit," Utah Democratic Party chair Jim Dabakis said. "The fire that he's going through now will probably be really helpful to him when he faces the president."

Dabakis pointed to 2008 as proof a lengthy primary campaign can be helpful - especially considering the significant media attention this contest has drawn.

"Look what happened with Hillary Clinton and President Obama - they went through that long, divisive battle and then everyone rallied together," Dabakis said.

Romney's challenge, Dabakis said, is "Etch-a-Sketching" back to a middle position to attract those on the fence in general election battleground states - after appealing to the extreme right in the primary process.


The fire that (Romney) is going through now will probably be really helpful to him when he faces the president.

–Jim Dabakis


Those middle-of-the-road voters, according to Dabakis -- amounting to about 4 or 5 percent of voters in four or five key states - will be key to success in the fall.

"We'll see how he can maneuver that," Dabakis said.

Ninety eight delegates are at stake in Tuesday's three primaries. Wisconsin is considered the key contest, offering up 42 delegates.

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Andrew Adams

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