SALT LAKE CITY — The Trump administration's proposed changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement could have a significant impact on Utah's economy, a local analyst says.

Last week, the Trump administration officially notified Congress of its plans to renegotiate NAFTA, but it offered only vague hints about any potential changes the president would pursue to the agreement. Trump has described the 23-year-old trade deal as “the worst trade deal ever.”

At the time of its implementation, the goal of NAFTA was to eliminate barriers to trade and investment between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. But, Trump has long said he wanted to scrap NAFTA and has begun the process to making at least some of the changes he promised on the campaign trail. However, what changes are still unknown, Derek Miller, CEO of World Trade Center Utah, said.

"We don't know any of the details, any of the particular things that this administration wants to renegotiate," he said. "They didn't mention any of those things or specifics in their letter (to Congress)."

He said that when it's comes down to it, the administration would probably make "some tweaks on the edges" of the deal in a way that may make minor differences rather than sweeping changes.

"I would be surprised if we saw significant changes to NAFTA primarily because there just isn't time," he said. Trade deals are complicated by the realities of politics, including elections in both America and Mexico, so any changes would be made with those issues in mind, he noted.

Broadly, Miller said forging a mutually beneficial trade relationship is something that will serve Utah well for decades to come. He also said revising NAFTA would likely be less time-consuming than scrapping the whole thing and starting from scratch — which would take much longer.

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Trade deals like NAFTA have been instrumental in helping the state’s economy flourish over the past decade, he said.

Utah currently exports $12 billion to $13 billion worth of goods and services, with a trade surplus of approximately $4 billion, he explained. The state stands to lose millions of dollars if Trump decides to reduce trade with our southern border neighbor, he added.

The administration has said it wants to support economic growth and well-paying jobs, however, no concrete plan has been laid out. But Miller said there may be some advantages to making some perceived improvements to the agreement.

"Trump has every reason to claim a political victory if in renegotiating NAFTA he is able to tweak some of the big outstanding things," he said. "(Such as) adding some language that deals with e-commerce, which didn't exist at the time over 20 years ago."

He was unconvinced that Trump would make a major overhaul of the deal like he said during his run for the presidency. For Utah, trade with Mexico has increased nearly 10-fold since NAFTA took effect in January 1994, Miller noted, and the state stands to lose a lot with major changes.

"I support a Trump policy that puts America first, but not in a way that would put Utah last," Miller said. "Where there are elements of NAFTA, particularly in the transportation industry, we don't want to see anything where we have a center of excellence be hurt."

But he acknowledged that some changes could benefit the Beehive State in the long term, like e-commerce. He also noted that members of the state's congressional delegation support appropriate changes that could help Utah businesses continue prospering.

"NAFTA is a 23-year-old trade deal that needs to be updated," Miller said. "We just want to make sure that do it in a way that doesn't put Utah companies at a disadvantage."

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