Runnin’ Utes trending in the wrong direction


Save Story
Leer en español

Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes

This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.

SALT LAKE CITY — It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Although the start to a classic novel, that also sums up Utah’s season in near perfect form.

The 2016-17 basketball season was projected to be a season of progress and building, with the Utes expected to finish eighth in the Pac-12. For much of the season, Utah seemingly over-achieved with a young team, playing well and taking some of the top teams in the country down to the wire.

However, the highs of beating USC by 22 points and keeping it close against Arizona, Oregon and UCLA in the first half of conference play weren’t enough to sustain Utah’s growth and potential NCAA Tournament bid chances. Utah dropped back-to-back games to Cal and Stanford, struggled to put away Washington State at home and got blown out by a dominant Oregon team.

The recent slide by the Utes, however, pales in comparison to its performance Sunday against the worst team in the Pac-12, Oregon State, who was winless in conference play and had only won four games all season before beating the Utes, 68-67.

In fact, Oregon State is one of the worst teams in the country, coming into the game with an RPI of 298. That low RPI is slightly better than only five opponents the Utes faced in non-conference play this season — Hawaii (299), Prairie View A&M (311), UC Riverside (318), Coppin State (334) and Southern Utah (344) — which was part of the early argument against Utah securing a tournament bid with a weak resume.

Although a loss to Oregon State shouldn’t happen to a team in contention for a top-four finish in the conference late in the season, the groundwork was laid in the weeks leading up to Sunday’s game. The following are some of the indicators leading to Utah’s decline in recent weeks:

A drop in efficiency

Utah started conference play as a team many believed had passed the “eye test.” Had it not been for its weak resume, it would be a no-brainer to see the team receive an NCAA Tournament bid. Utah was shooting an impressive 59.6 percent effective field goal percentage in the first eight games of conference play and could go toe-to-toe with the high-powered offenses of the Pac-12. However, 3-point shooting, in addition to the overall shooting, went down and Utah’s ability to contend became more difficult.

In the last seven games, Utah’s effective field goal percentage dropped to 54 percent, but that's not the full story. Not only has shooting percentage dropped, but Utah makes less in its possessions and allows more on defense. In the first eight games of conference play, Utah averaged 116.1 offensive efficiency, which is points scored per 100 possessions, and had a 99.9 defensive efficiency for a difference of +16.2.

In the last seven games, Utah’s offensive efficiency dropped to 107.4 and defensive efficiency has increased to 105.4 for a difference of +2, which means an increased chance of close games and an increased risk of losing.

That holds true when looking at points scored per possession, too. In the first eight games of conference play, Utah averaged 1.163 O-PPP while allowing 0.999 D-PPP for a difference of 0.164. In the last seven games, however, Utah's O-PPP has dropped to 1.072 and its D-PPP has increased to 1.058 for a difference of 0.014, which is essentially even.

Turnovers and defense stifling progress =======================================

Turnovers have been a consistent theme for much of the season; however, in the first half of conference play, Utah did a decent job at eliminating mistakes, averaging 10.4 per game. Of all Utah possessions, only 15.2 percent ended in a turnover in that stretch. In the last seven games, though, Utah averaged 14.9 turnovers per game, with 21.3 percent of all possessions ending in a turnover.

That 4.5 average turnover difference per game could give the opponent anything from 1 to about 13.5 more points, which goes to the above stats showing the gap between offensive and defensive efficiencies closing. In the last seven games, Utah’s increase in turnovers led to an average of 15.8 points for the opponent, compared to the 11.4 points allowed in the previous eight.

Although not a huge difference in terms of points scored for the opponent, with the games closer as a result of making less points per possession, every turnover matters, particularly late in the game. Compound that with Utah’s lackluster defense as of late, and the program has little room for error.

Against Oregon State, Utah allowed Stephen Thompson Jr. to score 31 points, including 14 points in the final 5 minutes of the game. Thompson had a wide-open 3-pointer and easy back-to-back layups in the final minutes that allowed the Beavers to erase a 13-point lead and win the game.

“As you can imagine, we’re a dejected locker room and feel pretty badly about this one,” Utah assistant coach Tommy Connor told ESPN700.

Most recent Sports stories

Related topics

SportsUtah Utes
Josh Furlong

    ARE YOU GAME?

    From first downs to buzzer beaters, get KSL.com’s top sports stories delivered to your inbox weekly.
    By subscribing, you acknowledge and agree to KSL.com's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

    KSL Weather Forecast