Utah in 50 years: older, more crowded, more diverse than ever

Utah in 50 years: older, more crowded, more diverse than ever

(Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)


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SALT LAKE CITY — Last year, there were 337 people in Utah over the age of 100. In 50 years, there will be nearly 7,000.

Mary Kawakami, a Highland woman who will turn 104 in December, can't believe it.

Over 75 years of living in Utah, Kawakami has watched the sparsely populated frontier state turn into a thrumming economic role model that attracts families and businesses from around the world.

Even though the centenarian doesn’t particularly care for the internet, the crowds or the increasingly competitive job market that her great-grandchildren will face, Kawakami says she's seen enough to know that progress "has to go on whether we like it or not."

Compared with the past 50 years, Utah's progress over the next half-century will include slower growth, more diversity and urgent challenges for younger generations, according to demographic projections released Wednesday by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah.

Utah's population, which hit 3 million last year, is projected to nearly double to 5.5 million by 2065 — about the size of Minnesota today.

But that growth will decelerate over time due to declining fertility rates and longer life expectancies.

"The population's aging," said Pam Perlich, director of demographic research at the institute, noting that similar trends are being observed throughout the developed world.

According to the report, advancements in medicine will extend Utahns’ lifetimes by some four to seven years by 2065.

Meanwhile, the average number of children born to a Utah woman in her lifetime is expected to dip slightly to 2.28.

Photo: Joseph Tolman
Photo: Joseph Tolman

That means the share of retirement-age Utahns ages 65 and older will double over the next 50 years to more than 1 in 5.

Longer lifetimes. Fewer children. And a shrinking share of working-age adults to take care of them.

If policymakers don't take heed, the current generation of working-age Utahns will be “handing off a lot of very vexing problems (to the next generation)," Perlich said.

“It will benefit the community in the future and us in our lifetimes to see that the younger generation becomes very successful,” she said. "We're underinvesting in them right now, in my opinion.”

As of now, Utah still has — and is likely to have — the youngest population and highest fertility rates in the U.S.

But Rep. Robert Spendlove, R-Sandy, a senior economist for Zions Bank, said the forecasts show the state becoming more similar to the rest of the nation demographically.

“Utah has always been unique and will always be unique, but Utah is no longer an island unto itself," he said.

Utah is getting older. Photo: Joseph Tolman
Utah is getting older. Photo: Joseph Tolman

Spendlove, who sits on the Utah Legislature's Health and Human Services Committee, said lawmakers urgently need to start discussing the state's infrastructure, education, health and housing strategies with an eye toward supporting population growth.

"What it says to policymakers is that we need to be paying very close attention," Spendlove said. "We need to be planning today for the kind of growth we're going to be seeing in the near future."

Researchers estimate one-third of Utah’s population increase up to 2065 will be due to net migration, although it won’t reach the levels seen in the immigration boom of the 1990s.

That shows that Utah is still a desirable place for the young adults and families who tend to be "the movers, the shakers, the innovators, the risk takers” in communities, Perlich said.

Utah will also become increasingly ethnically diverse, although it still remains more predominantly white when compared with national averages.

According to the institute's projections, Salt Lake City will become a majority-minority city by 2040, meaning racial or ethnic minorities will make up a majority of the local population.

Mary Kawakami, 103, gets a helping hand from her longtime friend and caregiver Pat Rockling as they prepare to leave their home in Highland to go to lunch on Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016. Photo: Spenser Heaps, Deseret News
Mary Kawakami, 103, gets a helping hand from her longtime friend and caregiver Pat Rockling as they prepare to leave their home in Highland to go to lunch on Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016. Photo: Spenser Heaps, Deseret News

The fastest-growing minority group in Utah currently, Perlich said, is mixed-race individuals.

“Utah’s connection to other parts of the world through markets and transportation and tech — and through the outreach of the LDS Church — has brought people from all over the world,” she said.

This 50-year projection report is the first authored by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, which received funding from the Legislature to do the analysis. The reports are usually compiled by the Governor's Office of Management and Budget.

"The advantage is in government offices, people are going in a thousand different directions," Perlich said. "At the university, we have the capacity to get real subject area experts and not have the weight of that political pressure around us."

Other findings include:

• The number of school-age children is projected to grow by about 10,000 kids per year before slowing significantly after 2018.

• The number of retirement-age adults is expected to grow by more than 10,000 people per year into the foreseeable future.

• Strong job growth is expected in construction and professional/business services. Farming and military will see weak growth or decline.

• Employment growth is projected to be stable overall.

As for Kawakami, she insists that some things never change, despite the rapid developments set to hit Utah in the next 50 years.

When it comes to being successful in today’s world, she says, young people have to work hard and focus on school.

That's what her father taught her back in 1919, when Kawakami was 7 years old and attending school in the U.S. for the first time.

"You've got to earn it,” Kawakami said. "Just the same as before."

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