Consumer index down slightly in July

(Kristin Murphy, Deseret News))


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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah consumers are still pretty confident about the local economy, a new survey shows.

The Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index fell 1.2 points to 110.3 in July, driven primarily by a drop in confidence in both the present and future economic situation indicators. The overall index currently registered five points higher than its level a year ago. In comparison, the national Consumer Confidence Index decreased 0.1 points from June to July to register at 97.3.

Despite the slight decrease, the index remained just above the 110 mark, which indicates that consumers believe the local economy is "running on all cylinders," explained Zions Bank economic adviser Randy Shumway.

"We've been above 100 for all of the last 12 months," Shumway said, "… and 110 is where we want to be in terms of overall consumer confidence. We've been above (the 110 mark) in six of the past 12 months."

The Zions Bank overall index is based on a representative sample of 500 Utah households from a monthly survey conducted by Cicero Group with a confidence interval of plus or minus 4.38 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The overall index data is measured against local and U.S. data from previous months to identify key consumer sentiment trends.

The Present Situation Index, a subindex that gauges how consumers feel about current economic conditions, declined slightly by 1.6 points since last month but remains 4.5 points higher than it was at this time last year, the survey indicated.

Expectations for the next six months decreased 0.9 points in July due to a slightly more negative outlook on employment opportunities, Shumway said.

Speaking Tuesday at a monthly news conference, Shumway said the outlook for the labor market is slightly more negative, as 13 percent of Utahns think there will be fewer jobs available in their area six months from now, a 2 percent increase since last month.

Photo Credit: Aaron Thorup, Zions Bank
Zions Bank (Photo: Aaron Thorup, Zions Bank)
Photo Credit: Aaron Thorup, Zions Bank Zions Bank (Photo: Aaron Thorup, Zions Bank)

Additionally, gasoline prices have continued to fall this month, reaching a 12-year low for July due to abundant fuel supplies and declining crude oil costs, Shumway said. U.S. crude oil supplies are about 13 percent higher than a year ago, while gasoline stocks have climbed to record-high marks in July, he added.

Average gasoline prices are approximately 56 cents less than they were a year ago, which has motivated many Americans to take long road trips this summer to take advantage of the low prices, he said. The average gas price in Utah is $2.32 per gallon, while the national average sits at $2.15.

On the national front, consumer spending remains one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy, said IHS Global Insight economist Chris Christopher.

"The positive forces affecting consumer spending are low energy prices, modest consumer price inflation, appreciating home values, and rising real disposable incomes," Christopher said. "Consumer confidence is likely to assist consumer spending and back-to-school retail sales in the third quarter."

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