PROVO — Now that we've examined the best-case and worst-case scenarios for BYU football in the first year under head coach Kalani Sitake, let's take a look at a more realistic approach to how the season will play out.

Last year, I went on record saying that BYU would win 10 games. It turns out, that was a pretty close estimate.

In a two-part piece, I will again go on record with my predictions for the 2016 season. Look for the second half of the season early next week.

BYU vs. Arizona, Sept. 3

This game looks to be a very intriguing matchup for a variety of reasons. The Cougars and Wildcats are both bringing back a good deal of players with starting experience from last season. BYU has nine starters returning on offense, including starter Taysom Hill and backup Tanner Mangum, along with Jamaal Williams at tailback and Algie Brown moving to fullback. The Cougars were a strong offense in 2015, averaging just under 34 points a game. Arizona was even better with the ball, scoring a whopping 42.3 points a contest. They return seven starters on offense.

Defensively, the Cougars return eight starters from a squad that gave up 22.8 points a game. Arizona has eight starters coming back, as well, though it lost its best defender, Scooby Wright, to the NFL and the Wildcats couldn’t stop anyone last year, giving up 30.5 points a night.

While both teams have familiar faces on the field, there will be lots of new faces on the sidelines. Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez let go of his defensive coordinator, defensive backs coach and defensive line coach after an abysmal year defensively. Rodriguez hired former Boise State defensive coordinator Marcel Yates to take over the defense and is hoping for better results.

On the opposing sideline, BYU has even more fresh faces after former head coach Bronco Mendenhall unexpectedly took a job at Virginia and took most of his staff with him. Only one coach from last year, Steve Kaufusi, returns as a Cougar coach. New head coach Sitake has never been the guy in charge and neither his offensive nor defensive coordinator have experience in their positions at a college level. Both coordinators are implementing brand new systems that will look quite different than what has been run in Provo for the last 11 years.

BYU arguably has better players than Arizona. The Wildcats are coming off a mediocre season in which they went 7-6 and only got to that record by preying off of weak teams in and non-conference play. Still, this contest will be the new coaching staff at the Y’s first time together (or ever) managing and calling a game. For that reason, I have to go with Arizona in a close one.

Prediction: Arizona 35, BYU 28

BYU at Utah, Sept. 10

No doubt about it, the Cougars need this one. They have not beaten the Utes since Max Hall’s famous “I hate Utah” speech after the 2009 contest. The losing streak is now at five games, with four of those coming since Utah was selected to play in the Pac-12. Most of the games have been close, with the Utes winning four of the five meetings by a touchdown or less. The 4-0 record in close games seems to suggest that Utah has had a mental edge over the Cougs in these matchups.

While Bronco Mendenhall did a lot of really good things in Provo, not least of which was turning a program coming off three straight losing seasons into one that would play in 11 straight bowls, he was deservedly criticized for his failures in rivalry games. Against the Utes, Mendenhall was just 3-7. Part of the explanation for why he struggled against the U. was the fact that he refused to acknowledge it as being inherently different than other games. Sitake has made it clear that this will change under his guidance.

In terms of player personnel, the Utes should field another strong team after coming off of a 10-win season last year. They have six returning starters on offense and seven on defense. The U. will be looking to find its quarterback when it opens fall camp. As always with the squad, it will be interesting to see how well they do offensively and how much turnover there will be at signal-caller as they have struggled in these areas for several years, now.

This should be a great college football game. Both teams are bringing back a lot of talent, and Rice-Eccles Stadium should be electric. I give the Cougs the nod in this one for a few reasons. First, the Utes will still be breaking in a new quarterback. More importantly, however, is the change in attitude about the rivalry from the coaching staff and the fact that it’s super seniors Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams’ last go at the Utes.

Prediction: BYU 28, Utah 21

UCLA at BYU, Sept. 17

Last year’s loss to the Bruins is still a sore subject with many Cougar fans. BYU was leading the majority of the contest and let the lead slip away in the fourth quarter. Tanner Mangum couldn’t orchestrate one more last-minute miracle and the Cougs fell to 10th-ranked UCLA 24-23 in Los Angeles. In that game, BYU’s defense did a number on the Bruins’ star freshman quarterback, Josh Rosen. The young gunslinger completed under 50 percent of his passes and threw three picks for a paltry 5.8 adjusted QBR in the contest.

Rosen will be another year older and wiser and have more experience under his belt when he strolls into Provo this go round. Plus, BYU defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki has acknowledged that his defense will not be as complicated as Mendenhall’s. This game may come down to whether or not the Cougs can slow Rosen down enough to win in an old-fashioned shootout. That will not be easy to do as the Bruins return 10 starters on a defense that was particularly stout against the pass.

Rosen is a stud, and it’s going to be a real challenge to slow him down. However, BYU has some real advantages. The first is that the game will be at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The elevation works in the Cougs’ favor and it should be a sell-out as well, as fans will finally get to see some Power 5 teams come to Provo. The other advantage they have is that the Bruins struggled against the run last season. BYU looks to be stacked with talent at running back with Williams returning for his senior year and young dynamic players like Riley Burt and Squally Canada filling in to give Williams a breather.

Prediction: BYU 42, UCLA 35

BYU vs. West Virginia, Sept. 24

In another neutral game, the Cougars will fly out to Maryland to take on the Mountaineers at the Washington Redskins’ home venue, FedEx Field. The game may act as a preview for future in-conference games should BYU be included in Big 12 expansion. West Virginia, as has been its norm for the last several campaigns, was decent last season. The Mountaineers finished with a solid 8-5 record but their win total was helped out by beating an FCS school, a Sun Belt squad and a 3-9 Maryland team in non-conference play. WVU finished 4-5 in conference and only beat one team with a winning record (Texas Tech) in 2015.

West Virginia does have some talent returning, particularly on offense. The Mountaineers return nine starters on that side of the ball after averaging 33.4 points a contest last season. The defense will take a big hit, however, with only four returning starters. It should be noted that WVU will be coming off a bye week before playing BYU and will play against FCS foe Youngstown State the week before the bye. Look for the Mountaineers to be well-rested heading into their matchup with the Cougars.

I think on paper BYU is a better team than West Virginia is. The Mountaineers have been a middle-of-the-pack squad in the Big 12 since joining the conference after the 2011 season. However, three tough games and a long road trip took its toll on the Cougars last season when they started with Nebraska, Boise State and UCLA then had to travel out to Michigan. I see this scenario playing out again this year with the Y running out of gas in its fourth contest.

Prediction: West Virginia 21, BYU 14

Toledo at BYU, Sept. 30

After four tough games against Power 5 teams, the Cougs return to LaVell Edwards Stadium to play against an upstart Toledo team. The Rockets had a very good season in 2015, knocking off two Power 5 teams and beating a ranked Temple in a bowl game to finish 10-2 on the season. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain that success after losing head coach Matt Campbell, who was lured away by Iowa State prior to the bowl game.

Former offensive coordinator Jason Candle is the new guy in charge and has some pieces to work with on offense. The Rockets will need to find a replacement for quarterback Phillip Ely, but the new guy’s job will be made easier by having two returning running backs who both ran for over 900 yards in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson. The real key for Candle will be whether or not he can field a competitive defense. Toledo only has three returning starters from a stout D in 2015 that finished 18th in the country in points allowed per game.

BYU fans who are expecting a blowout may be surprised by the outcome of this one. The Rockets will not be a pushover. They have a good deal of talent on the offensive side of the ball and are coming off of a good year in which they beat an SEC and Big 12 school en route to double-digit victories. While the Cougars cannot let their guard down during this one, they have more talent and depth than Toledo and should come away with a W in this one.

Prediction: BYU 35, Toledo 21

BYU at Michigan State, Oct. 8

Michigan State has somewhat quietly become one of the biggest powerhouse programs in college football. The Spartans have won at least 11 games in five of their last six campaigns. Last year, they earned a berth to the College Football Playoff though it didn’t end well with them being shut out by Alabama 38-0. MSU has been especially tough at home, pitching unblemished records in East Lansing in 2010-11 and 2013-15.

The Spartans may be in for a rebuilding year, however. They only have four starters returning on offense and are losing three-year starting quarterback Connor Cook, who is now in the NFL. On defense, MSU is returning six starters from a unit that gave up under 22 points a game last year. Even with losing some star players, the team should still be loaded with talent as the Spartans’ 2016 recruiting class was ranked the 18th best in the nation by 247sports.com.

This could be a good year for the Cougs to take on Michigan State. There’s a good chance MSU will not be quite as dominant as it has been in recent history due to losing a lot of players to graduation and the NFL draft. However, the team’s success has led to some very good recruiting classes coming into East Lansing the last several years, and almost no opponents win at Spartan Stadium.

Prediction: Michigan State 24, BYU 17

Through the first six games, I predict BYU will be 3-3. Stay tuned for my predictions of the second half of the season.

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