SALT LAKE CITY — The Utah Jazz finished the 2014-15 NBA season on a 21-13 pace, good for a 61 percent winning percentage.

Spread over an 82-game season, the Jazz would finish with 50-win season. That's the goal in 2015, as the Jazz so far through the young offseason have opted to keep the young roster together rather than drastically alter the team by spending big dollars in free agency.

Had the Jazz finished the season with 50 wins, they would have qualified for the seventh seed in the playoffs this past season. In 2014, 50 wins again would have qualified the Jazz for the seventh seed, and in 2013 would have given the Jazz the sixth seed.

Over the past three seasons, the team qualifying for the eighth seed in the Western Conference has averaged 46 wins, giving the Jazz a buffer space of four wins from last year's pace to qualify for the postseason if these averages hold true.

But if the Jazz are to get into the playoffs, at least one team must fall out, and that would be assuming no other teams on the outside looking in of this years playoffs improve their final standings next season.

In order of standings, Golden State, Houston, the Los Angeles Clippers, Portland, Memphis, San Antonio, Dallas and New Orleans all made the playoffs this past season.

Golden State, Houston, Los Angeles, Memphis and San Antonio are near locks to make the playoffs next season, as they've retained most of, if not their entire roster from last season. The Spurs improved their roster by beefing up their frontcourt with LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. Golden State re-signed versatile big man Draymond Green, while Los Angeles and Memphis brought starting centers DeAndre Jordan and Marc Gasol.

That leaves Portland, Dallas and New Orleans as potential playoff teams that could fail to qualify for the postseason in 2016.

Portland has had arguably the worst offseason of any team in the NBA, losing 280 starts from last season between the departure of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo. While the Blazers have tried to address the gaps with minor trades, the Trail Blazers will almost certainly be on the outside looking in on next year's playoffs.

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Dallas signed Matthews away from Portland, in an attempt to surround aging superstar Dirk Nowitzki with young talent. The Mavericks had a handshake agreement with free agent center DeAndre Jordan during the NBA's free agent moratorium, but Jordan backed out of the deal and re-signed with the Clippers. The Mavericks then upped their offer sheet to Matthews, coming off an Achilles tendon tear, in what looked like a desperate attempt to keep Matthews from leaving the team in the fall out of the Jordan fiasco.

Nowitzki is 37 years old, and appears to be declining physically, and will be asked to shoulder more of the burden now starting center Tyson Chandler has left the team for the Phoenix Suns. Former Jazz guard Deron Williams should aid the Mavericks in the backcourt, taking over for an unhappy Rajon Rondo, but has seen a serious decline in his play during his time in Brooklyn. While Dallas has the experience edge over the Jazz to make the playoffs, the roster may simply lack enough young talent.

New Orleans, like the Jazz is a young team on the rise, and has a new head coach in Alvin Gentry who was an assistant with the Finals winning Golden State Warriors. Anthony Davis is the NBA's best young superstar, and is more than capable of shouldering an enormous load to carry the Pelicans to the playoffs. But the roster around him is imperfect, with several high-paid players playing similar positions, and key players with injury-filled histories. If the Pelicans can stay healthy, they should find themselves again in the postseason, having qualified for the playoffs by way of a tie-breaker this past year. Any slip in play could have them on the outside looking in.

Other non-playoff teams have improved their roster this season and could be threats to jump the Jazz on their way to the playoffs. Phoenix, which finished one game ahead of the Jazz last season, added the aforementioned Tyson Chandler, while Oklahoma City is bound to improve with a healthy Kevin Durant.

With Portland likely finding itself on the outside looking in, and Oklahoma City making its way back to the playoffs, the Jazz are likely going to have to outperform Dallas, New Orleans and Phoenix to qualify for the playoffs. If the Jazz can maintain their winning pace from the second half of the 2014-15 NBA season, a playoff birth is likely, but it will take wins over other prospective teams competing for a postseason spot to make it.

Ben Anderson is the co-host of Gunther in the Afternoon with Kyle Gunther on 1320 KFAN from 3-7, Monday through Friday. Read Ben's Utah Jazz blog at 1320kfan.com, and follow him on Twitter @BenKFAN.

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