Prediction time for BYU, Utah and USU


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SALT LAKE CITY — Here we go again, the college football season is upon us. As such, it is time to peer into the future and come up with annual predictions for BYU, Utah and Utah State.

BYU

Quarterback Taysom Hill hands the ball off during a drill on the opening day of Brigham Young University football fall camp at the school's outdoor practice field in Provo on Friday, Aug. 5, 2016. (Photo: Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)
Quarterback Taysom Hill hands the ball off during a drill on the opening day of Brigham Young University football fall camp at the school's outdoor practice field in Provo on Friday, Aug. 5, 2016. (Photo: Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)

The buzz around the football program is practically tangible, generating incredible excitement going into the season. Certainly, the fan base has not been this energized since BYU became an independent before the 2011 season.

Credit the new coaching staff, directed by Kalani Sitake and offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, for breathing “fresh air” into the program, as legendary coach LaVell Edwards has said. Soon enough we will learn if the good guys can coach.

Not that it will be easy. At least going into the season, this schedule looks like the toughest in program history.

Sitake and Detmer have gone to great lengths in spinning the positives of proven quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum on the roster. As long as Hill plays well as the starter, there will be no problems. But it could get sticky if Hill struggles, with an impatient fan base calling for the backup.

For decades, BYU has wanted to belong to the conference now known as the Pac-12. Whether it is good or bad news, the Cougars will get a chance to feel like a partial member by opening with three Pac-12 foes in Arizona, Utah and UCLA.

To avoid disaster and doubt, BYU needs to win one of the three games. With Arizona considered a pick ‘em game and with UCLA at home, the Cougars have a realistic shot at going 2-1. It’s probably not wise to expect BYU to break its current five-game losing streak to the dreaded Utes.

Concluding the first half of the season, expect BYU to lose to West Virginia after a cross-country trip and beat Toledo at home. Most teams don’t beat Michigan State in East Lansing, meaning BYU starts 3-3.

The next three games (at home to Mississippi State and at Boise State and Cincinnati) will determine the success of the season, assuming BYU closes with home wins over Southern Utah, Massachusetts and Utah State.

My guess is BYU goes 1-2 to the critical midseason stretch. Adding it up, the Cougars finish Sitake’s rookie season at 7-5.

Utah

Troy Williams passes the ball during University of Utah football practice in Salt Lake City on Friday, Aug. 19, 2016. (Photo: Ravell Call, Deseret News)
Troy Williams passes the ball during University of Utah football practice in Salt Lake City on Friday, Aug. 19, 2016. (Photo: Ravell Call, Deseret News)

For all the excitement surrounding BYU, it pales in comparison to the hype with the Utes. Many media members around the Pac 12 and locally have picked Utah to win the South Division for the first time. The lofty expectations could mean disappointment for anything less than playing in the Pac-12 championship game.

To turn back highly regarded UCLA and tradition-rich USC, the Utes are counting on an unproven quarterback and to-date subpar receivers. Everything else is in place to justify a championship run.

Continuing a Pac-12 tradition, Utah has lousy depth at quarterback. And to make it worse, neither scholarship quarterback Troy Williams nor Tyler Huntley were in the program last year. For that reason, it is hard to pick Utah to win the South.

Williams came out of high school in Southern California with all the stars and credentials. His stint at Washington didn’t pan out, leading to a transfer near home to Santa Monica College, where Williams put up impressive numbers last season.

But the leap from junior college to the Pac-12 is akin to moving from Double A baseball to the big leagues. And forget about winning the division with a first-year freshman at quarterback.

The good news is Williams doesn’t have to match UCLA’s Josh Rosen or Washington State’s Luke Falk. With the Utes loaded on defense, Williams only has to be better than last season’s version of Travis Wilson.

As usual, the Utes should go into the conference season on a roll. In the Pac-12, they’ve lost only one non-conference game in five years. Except for Oregon State and possibly one of the two Arizona schools, every conference game has a chance to go down to the end.

As a Utah assistant coach said during training camp, one or two plays in the fourth quarter could determine the season. The same coach said Utah’s offense has improved but still isn’t stellar, meaning if Williams can do the expected, then first place is a decent possibility.

With not much separating many Pac-12 teams, it seems pointless to predict individual outcomes of games. Taking a big-picture approach, the Utes won’t win the division if going 9-0 or 8-1 is required.

My pick is Utah finishing the conference at 6-3, which could be good enough to win a tiebreaker. Overall, they should go 9-3.

Utah State

USU quarterback Kent Myers drops back to pass as assistant head coach Michael Canales looks on during an Aggie practice in Logan. (Photo: Jeff Hunter)
USU quarterback Kent Myers drops back to pass as assistant head coach Michael Canales looks on during an Aggie practice in Logan. (Photo: Jeff Hunter)

Finishing 6-7 last season, the shine is somewhat off the Aggies, who went 1-4 after October.

With the oft-injured Chuckie Keeton now gone, the offense belongs to quarterback Kent Myers. The mobile junior will complement a deep stable of running backs, who should be able to gain sizable chunks of yards behind an experienced offensive line.

The question marks are at defensive line and linebackers. BYU transfer Dallin Leavitt joins veterans Jalen Davis and Devin Centers to give the Aggies a strong defensive backfield.

In recent seasons, Utah State has become linebacker U., sending several at the position into the NFL. The Aggies need a new group there to contend in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division.

Assuming the Aggies go 2-1 in the early non-conference, winning at home against Weber State and Arkansas State and losing at USC, the first two conference games could determine their fate. Beating Air Force and Boise State to open the conference slate makes USU a strong contender, while 0-2 probably makes the deficit too steep.

If the Aggies are respectable on defense, 8-4 is a decent possibility, with 7-5 more likely.

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