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Last week, I wrote a piece predicting BYU's first six games and promised I would give my thoughts on the next six and bowl game later. Without further ado, here are my picks for games 7-13.
BYU vs. Mississippi State, Oct. 14
The Mississippi State game presents a real opportunity for the Cougs. It is the only school they will square off against from the undisputedly best conference in college football, the SEC. A win over the Bulldogs would be a solid win to build his resume for BYUs first-year head coach, Kalani Sitake.
The Bulldogs have been a solid, if not spectacular, program under their head coach, Dan Mullen. The team has ended the season ranked twice since Mullen took over in 2009 and has won at least eight games four times in that time frame. MSU finished 9-4 in 2015 but must replace its sensational quarterback, Dak Prescott, who now plays for the Dallas Cowboys. Going into the season, Mullen is going to use a dual quarterback system as none of his signal callers have separated themselves in practice. This is good news for BYU as using multiple QBs almost never produces good results. With a rocking crowd for homecoming, BYU notches a big win.
Prediction: BYU 27, Mississippi State 24 | Record: 4-3
BYU at Boise State, Oct. 20
The Cougars and Broncos have developed quite the rivalry over the past four seasons. Long regarded as two of the premier college programs outside of Power 5 conferences, the teams have each notched two wins in their four matchups with the home team taking each game. BYU earned a hard-fought come-from-behind victory in last year’s contest at LaVell Edwards Stadium behind Tanner Mangum’s desperation heave into the end zone late in the fourth quarter.
The last time the Y was in Boise, things got ugly quickly. BSU shellacked an injury-riddled Cougs squad 55-30. The Broncos would finish the year 12-2 and win a New Year’s Six bowl. Boise State is coming off of a rebuilding year in which it still won nine games. On the offensive side of the ball, the team has a whopping nine starters returning, including quarterback Brett Rypien, who is coming off a strong freshman campaign.
Defensively, there is a lot of turnover for Boise, including losing all four starters on the D-line. Still, the team has been known for formidable defenses, and there is a good chance that by this point in the season, the new players will understand the scheme and play at their best. The firepower on offense mingled with the Broncos’ dominance at home (92-4 since 2000) is too much for BYU to overcome in this one.
Prediction: Boise State 31, BYU 21 | Record: 4-4
BYU at Cincinnati, Nov. 5
The Cougars really could have used a bye week prior to the game on the smurf turf after a brutal September and October stretch in which they played six Power 5 schools. Instead, the Cougs get one after meeting up with the Broncos and prior to their contest against the Bearcats.
BYU and Cincinnati are two schools that have come up in almost every national pundit’s prediction regarding Big 12 expansion. The Y is almost unanimously seen as the most deserving of a bid based on merit alone but is likewise universally deemed the most controversial potential addition. In contrast, Cincinnati is generally regarded as a very safe, if not overwhelming, prospect. The school has had decent recent success in football and is not divisive politically.
On the field, the Bearcats will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator after Eddie Gran took the same position at Kentucky. This transition will be made more difficult by the fact that UC lost its top five receivers from last season. Cincy is banking on two-year starting quarterback Gunner Kiel upping his game this year. The team also has a new defensive coordinator for the fourth consecutive campaign. The Bearcats struggled on that side of the ball in 2015, ranking just 78th in total defense.
It will be interesting to see how Big 12 expansion has all played out by the time these two teams meet. This matchup may be a preview of future in-conference contests. It is also very possible given BYU's stances on hot-button issues and Cincinnati’s unflinching resolve to be inoffensive that the Cougs will be left out of expansion and the Bearcats will be in. In either case, the Y will roll in this one.
Prediction: BYU 42, Cincinnati 21 | Record: 5-4
BYU vs. Southern Utah, Nov. 12
The Thunderbirds had a very strong 2015 season in FCS play. Under the direction of current BYU coach Ed Lamb, SUU went 8-4, won the Big Sky Conference championship and made the FCS playoffs. As their school's website was proud to point out, the Thunderbirds had more players invited to the 2016 NFL Combine than Texas and Michigan combined, with two SUU players ending up being selected in the NFL draft. 2015 was a magical year on the gridiron in Cedar City.
While all that is great and good, the Cougars are not going to have any problems putting Southern Utah away early.
Prediction: BYU 56, Southern Utah 14 | Record: 6-4
BYU vs. UMass, Nov. 19
The Minutemen went just 3-9 in 2015 in the MAC. While that record is nothing to write home about, the team was competitive in most of its losses. Things are not looking up for the program, however. UMass has lost its affiliation with the MAC and is now independent like the Cougs. It will be tough sledding for the team as it faces a difficult schedule in which it will square off against three SEC schools and an ACC squad before heading to Provo. The altitude, the grind of a tough schedule and being purely overmatched against the Y will have UMass out of this game before halftime. Look for Tanner Mangum to get lots of reps.
Prediction: BYU 49, UMass 7 | Record: 7-4
BYU vs. Utah State, Nov. 26
After two straight games that should be blowout wins for the Cougars, the team faces its final real test in the regular season as it welcome the Aggies to LaVell Edwards Stadium. Utah State figures to be in the MWC championship picture at this point, and a win in Provo would be a terrific way to cap off another solid season for the program.
Offensively, USU returns 10 starters. That number sounds good, but those starters were only able to help the team muster up the 93rd best total offense in 2015. Much of that mediocrity can be explained by the inconsistency at the quarterback position with oft-injured Chuckie Keeton bouncing in and out of the lineup. The Aggies should have a more constant presence with junior Kent Myers taking over the position in 2016.
On defense, Utah State is taking a big hit. Gone are six of last year’s front seven that guided the team to the 17th best total defensive unit. Perhaps the biggest loss is linebacker Nick Vigil, who did a little bit of everything for last year’s D and was the heart and soul of the team.
Coming off of two straight light weeks, the Cougs will be well rested and will bring home “The Wagon Wheel” in the annual rivalry game.
Prediction: BYU 35, Utah State 21 | Record: 8-4
Bowl game: Poinsettia Bowl, BYU vs. San Diego State, Dec. 21
The Aztecs come into 2016 with a lot of momentum. They finished 2015 with 10 straight wins, won the Mountain West championship and slaughtered Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl for a final record of 11-3. With a favorable schedule this season (they will not face Boise State in the regular season), there are rumblings that SDSU could be a dark horse New Year’s Six team.
Besides the schedule, there are good reasons for optimism in San Diego. The Aztecs return the Mountain West’s offensive, defensive and special teams players of the year in 2016. While they will be breaking in a new quarterback, SDSU is primarily a run-oriented team and has a stud running back in Donnel Pumphrey. The senior needs just 318 rushing yards to beat out legendary Aztec Marshall Faulk as the school’s all-time leading rusher.
This should be a great game. It seems fitting that Ty Detmer will be on BYU's sidelines as this could be an epic shootout. If Taysom Hill is still upright by this contest, I like the Cougs to win in a game that will remind spectators of the crazy 1991 game that ended in a 52-52 tie between the former conference rivals.
