Trump, Clinton appeals speak to Utah concerns


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SALT LAKE CITY — Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are making appeals that seem tailor-made for usually reliably Republican Utah voters uncertain about Trump's tone toward immigration and minority faiths.

Trump, who has called for a ban on Muslims entering the country and deporting the millions of people living in the country illegally, is seemingly softening his stance on immigration by suggesting it would be tough to break up families.

At the same time, the billionaire businessman and GOP nominee is being accused by Clinton of "taking hate groups mainstream" and using racist rhetoric.

Neither candidate is popular with Utah voters, although Trump leads in recent polls. In March, Trump finished a distant third in Utah's GOP presidential preference caucus, while Clinton barely won 20 percent in the state's Democratic caucus.

That's led to Utah being seen nationally as no longer a sure thing for the GOP. Trump and Clinton, who both have campaign staff in the state, recently wrote op-eds for the Deseret News courting Utah voters.

"This is a new situation for Utah to be in," said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. "The issues the campaigns are talking about right now are issues that matter to people here in Utah."

Karpowitz said immigration is high on the list for the state's voters.

"I do think the idea of a religious test for immigration turns off many Utahns, or at least raises concerns," the political science professor said, while Trump's campaign "has been defined so starkly by his hard-line stance on immigration."

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Trump's new statements on immigration could reassure moderate Republicans, Karpowitz said, although the candidate has already been seen as backing away from offering legal status to immigrants here illegally unless they leave the country first.

"It makes it very hard to figure out exactly where he is," Karpowitz said.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has gone after Trump's statements against Muslims. Lee, who has not endorsed his party's nominee, told an interviewer in June that Trump is "wildly unpopular in my state" in part because of Utah's predominant Mormon faith.

Lee called members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints "a people who were ordered exterminated by the governor of Missouri in 1838. And statements like that make them nervous.”

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton looks up to audience members as she leaves a campaign event at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno, Nev., Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton looks up to audience members as she leaves a campaign event at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno, Nev., Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Clinton also invoked the extermination order in her op-ed in the Deseret News, where she defended religious freedom and warned that "Trump’s Muslim ban would undo centuries of American tradition and values."

"She's certainly emphasizing all of the things that make many Republicans here in Utah (uncomfortable) with Donald Trump," Karpowitz said. "The challenge is those same Republican voters seem to have made up their minds, rightly or wrongly, about Hillary Clinton."

Chuck Todd, NBC News political director and moderator of "Meet the Press," said Trump's newly named campaign leaders are likely looking at polling nationally showing he is losing as many as 15 percent of regular Republican voters.

"All of them seem to be offended by some form of either the Muslim ban, his tough rhetoric on immigration or his tough rhetoric on race," Todd told KSL-TV. "If he softens up, they think it can help in a place like Utah."

Todd said a shift could also help Trump win over white, college educated voters "who were Mitt Romney voters four years ago" but now are undecided or leaning toward Clinton or Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson.

Clinton's speech Thursday condemning Trump for "helping a radical fringe take over the Republican Party” was an attempt to win over a voter "who may not like her but is so offended by Trump," that can be overlooked, Todd said.

University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said he wasn't so sure the latest efforts by Trump and Clinton would have much impact on Utah voters in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.

"My strong sense is what will likely happen is many Republicans are going to hold their noses and vote for Trump because, for a variety of reasons, he's the least objectionable choice," Burbank said.

University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said, "My strong sense is what will likely happen is many Republicans are going to hold their noses and vote for Trump because, for a variety of reasons, he's the least objectionable choice." Photo: KSL TV
University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said, "My strong sense is what will likely happen is many Republicans are going to hold their noses and vote for Trump because, for a variety of reasons, he's the least objectionable choice." Photo: KSL TV

Trump's latest statements on immigration appear only to "very superficially address the concerns" of Utah voters who worry how his policies will affect families, Burbank said.

He said Clinton's detailed denunciation of Trump reinforces what Democrats already think about the GOP nominee and can be dismissed by Republicans as an attempt to tie their candidate to a "right-wing conspiracy."

Walter Garcia, Democratic National Committee Western regional communications director, said the fact that there's discussion "about Utah potentially being in play, it speaks to how dangerous and how divisive Donald Trump really is."

Garcia, who recently met with voters in West Valley City, said he's "had my share of conversations here in Utah, and folks are really outraged by the fact that he is the Republican nominee."

Johnson, McMullin wooing Utahns

But what that means for Clinton in Utah remains to be seen. Both Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, and Utah native Evan McMullin, an independent candidate for president, are wooing Utah voters.

Todd, who has called Utah a swing state this election, said McMullin could have a "significant impact" in a few states including Utah but won't be on the ballot in many states.

What McMullin needs to become a factor, however, is money and high-profile support from someone like 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Todd said. Romney slammed Trump as a phony and a fraud and said he won't vote for him or Clinton.

Romney has talked with the Libertarian ticket, which includes a fellow former Massachusetts governor, William Weld, but has yet to make an endorsement in the presidential race.

Utah's swing-state status is likely a one-time phenomenon, Todd said, because "this just happens to be a unique campaign where Utah and many voters want to reject Donald Trump in ways no other Republican has been rejected."

Contributing: Dennis Romboy

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