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SALT LAKE CITY — Three thoughts on the Jazz's 101-92 loss to the Dallas Mavericks from KSL.com's Utah Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Jazz just can't make shots when they need it most
I've writtenforweeksabouthow critical a game this was. And in the most critical moments, the Jazz just couldn't make outside shots. In the second half, the Jazz were 2-18 from 3-point land, including 0-9 in the third quarter. That the Jazz went on a 10-0 run without the benefit of the 3-ball, or a healthy Rudy Gobert or Derrick Favors is actually a little bit incredible. Had they made some of those open looks, they would have been in a completely different situation going down the stretch.
Blame goes around on this one. Gordon Hayward was terrific inside the arc, shooting 10-12, but then went only 1-9 from outside the arc. (This, by the way, should help dissuade you of any notions that getting easier baskets inside helps a player shoot better from the outside.) Rodney Hood, on the other hand, just couldn't make a shot from anywhere: he finished 1-11 overall, and made only one of his seven threes.
A bunch of explanations are possible here. The simplest is variance: sometimes you make shots, sometimes you don't. The Jazz made a lot of 3-point shots in the first half (7-15, to be precise), and missed a lot of the same looks in the second half. That's life.
One other possible one is pressure. In the 2012 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Matt Goldman and Justin Rao presented a paper that showed that teams actually shoot a slightly lower percentage at the free-throw line in pressure situations at home. They didn't look at shots from the field, but I wonder if home teams are similarly negatively affected by pressure on open outside shots. One might even surmise that youth and inexperience might be a factor.
Now, yeah, this is a lot of grasping at straws to explain away a bad loss. And who knows if coming up short in this environment is a teachable moment psychologically or an entrenching one, where the team feels that they can't succeed in pressure situations due to numerous failures.
But whatever the reason, the poor second half shooting was a big factor in the loss.
2. Defense struggles without a healthy Derrick Favors or Rudy Gobert
The offense was killed by the missed outside shots, but the defense was killed by injuries to the Jazz's best two defensive players.
Derrick Favors came off the bench tonight for the third time this season. Interestingly, rookie Trey Lyles told me that he learned he was starting at this morning's shootaround, so this was a largely planned move, a combination of Favors' injury and Lyles' effectiveness against the Mavericks in the last matchup between the two teams.
Favors, when he did play, was clearly not at 100 percent throughout the game. He didn't have his trademark explosiveness on rolls to the rim, making it hard to finish. Despite this, he made a few jump shots, so credit Favors to adding to that part of his game.
Rudy Gobert injured his ankle with 7:33 left in the second quarter. To that point, the Jazz were allowing 96.3 points per 100 possessions with Gobert in the game. Without Gobert, the Jazz allowed 118 points per 100 possessions. That gives you an idea of how important Gobert is defensively to the Utah Jazz.
Gobert left the arena with crutches in both arms and a walking boot on his right foot. I'd be stunned if he played Wednesday.
3. Now what?
Well, the Jazz have a very small chance of making the playoffs, still. If Houston loses to Sacramento and the Jazz are able to beat the Lakers, then they'd be the 8th seed.
The problem is that that's exceptionally unlikely. Houston knows that if they win, they'll be in. They'll be playing at home, and Sacramento's best player, DeMarcus Cousins, won't be playing. Sacramento probably wants to lose, too, given the current standings of the Tankathon.
Houston has blown remarkably easy games all season, and Sacramento did pull out a win against Phoenix tonight on the back of Seth Curry, Steph's brother. But, I mean, if the Rockets lose this one, it will be one of the worst losses by any team in NBA history.
I suppose that it's merciful that the Jazz's game against the Lakers starts two and a half hours after Houston's game. The Jazz should know if their game matters before they tip off in Kobe Bryant's final appearance ever.
