Estimated read time: 16-17 minutes
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ATLANTA — The Utah Jazz defeated the soaring Atlanta Hawks Sunday night, 97-96. Here are three thoughts about the wild finish, Gordon Hayward's slow start, and the road trip overall from Utah Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Crazy finish to the game
The Jazz being unable to jump the final hurdle in clutch comebacks has been a theme this season, but in tonight's game, the tables turned. This time, it was Atlanta's turn to stage a rally, only to be stymied in the end.
Let's go reverse-chronologically through the biggest plays in the final minute.
- Paul Millsap's miss on a wide-open 16-foot jump shot was a lucky moment for the Jazz, a win-or-lose shot that determined the outcome of the game. It's worth noting, though, that players make wide open jump shots less frequently than you'd think. So far this season, NBA players are shooting 45 percent on wide-open jump shots between 15 and 17 feet away from the basket with the closest defender at least 8 feet away. Last season, they shot 48 percent on those shots. And Paul Millsap is now 2-7 in the last three seasons (the only years for which we have data) on those type of shots. In other words, it was actually more likely that Millsap missed the look, which he did.
- The last two Jazz offensive possessions ended in exactly the same way: the Hawks blitzed the pick and roll, trying to force turnovers or confusion, just as they had successfully done all night. But both times in the end, the Jazz found Derrick Favors for an open 18-19 foot jump shot. He made one and missed one. Again, that's about what you would expect for NBA players shooting wide-open shots.
- With 38 seconds left, the Hawks ran a beautiful play to get Al Horford a wide-open look from the corner three. Watch:
The Jazz were very worried about Korver receiving the handoff and getting an open look, so Gobert hedged that way when Millsap received the ball. Millsap knew this, so he faked it, then took an easy roll to the basket, forcing the rotation from Derrick Favors. Horford, meanwhile, had been moving to the corner three spot. He got the pass and hit the shot. Awesome work.
2. Hayward's struggles
It might be time to be worried about Gordon Hayward. Hayward again struggled for the Jazz tonight, scoring just seven points on nine shots, his worst output of the season. On this road trip, he never shot above 45 percent from the field, and shot just 2-15 from the 3-point line.
On the aggregate, Hayward been much less effective this season. On a per-minute basis, his stats are worse across the board.
| Season | G | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [2014-15](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2015/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 76 | .445 | .364 | .812 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 20.1 |
| [2015-16](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2016/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 9 | .398 | .303 | .776 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 17.8 |
| Career | 372 | .438 | .363 | .811 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 16.4 |
This probably doesn't mean anything, but Hayward's also had an interesting habit of being a good 3-point shooter only every other year.
| Season | 3P | 3PA | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|
| [2010-11](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2011/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 1.5 | 3.2 | .473 |
| [2011-12](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2012/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 1.4 | 4.1 | .346 |
| [2012-13](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2013/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 2.6 | 6.2 | .415 |
| [2013-14](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2014/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 1.6 | 5.3 | .304 |
| [2014-15](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2015/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 2.4 | 6.7 | .364 |
| [2015-16](http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01/gamelog/2016/?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool) | 1.7 | 5.6 | .303 |
| Career | 1.9 | 5.3 | .363 |
I don't know what it is about every other season that seems to mess with Hayward's shot. I'll try to ask him at the next media availability.
3. Road trip thoughts
Yes, the Jazz finished just 1-3 on the road trip, but I thought that for 3 of the 4 games, they played really quite well. In every game but the back-to-back against Orlando, the Jazz beat the spread, losing by just four points to Cleveland and by just one to Miami.
For the most part, coach Quin Snyder evaluates his team by how his team played, not whether or not they got the result. I think, in the end, he won't be overly concerned with how the Jazz lost to Cleveland or Miami.
We also learned a few important items about the roster:
- When injuries hit, the ripple effects are huge: the Jazz simply don't have backups for Gobert or Favors who are capable of playing big minutes.
- But Jeff Withey should probably be getting more of the backup center minutes. Tibor Pleiss hasn't looked like he belongs, and Trey Lyles can't really figure it out on defense yet. The Jazz's defense relies so much on a shot-blocker in the middle, and Withey fits that mold.
- Raul Neto's starting, yes, but in a pretty perfunctory way. He's averaging 17 minutes per game so far this year. By the way, did you know that the Utah Jazz hold the record for playing a majority-of-the-season starter the fewest minutes per game? Future coach Marc Iavaroni set the record in the 1988-89 season, averaging just 10.3 MPG while starting 50 games for the Jazz.
- The Jazz's most effective lineup so far this season? The Triple Wing (Burks/Hood/Hayward/Favors/Gobert) leads. It's +17 through 26 minutes of play.
