Close calls have BYU on the NCAA tourney bubble


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BYU is inching back onto the NCAA tournament bubble with three games remaining in the regular season, and as ESPN recently noted during its latest Bubble Watch, "it's kind of crazy they're in this position to begin with," referencing the fact that BYU features two of the country's best players in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth.

So, how did BYU end up in this position? Frontcourt challenges and defensive lapses will be targeted as responsible explanations, but those issues notwithstanding, BYU's bubble status is arguably as much about a simple albeit crucial failure to finish, in just a handful of games. The Cougars' average margin of defeat in its eight losses is 4.7 points, and no game has been lost by more than seven points.

How unusual is it that BYU has the résumé it does without a single blowout loss? Fairly unusual. There are 17 NCAA Div. I teams this season with at least 20 wins and at least five losses—-in other words, teams good enough to have won a lot, yet with enough losses to put a dent in their postseason portfolio. All teams but one are in the RPI top 100. BYU is the only one of the 17 without a single double-digit setback, and the Cougars' average margin of defeat is the smallest of all teams listed.

Statistical analyst Ken Pomeroy assigns a rating called "Luck," described by Pomeroy as "a measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies." BYU's Luck rating is 329th of 351 Div I teams--far and away the worst ranking of the teams listed below. In short, BYU would be expected to have won more games than it has this season.

NCAA Div. I teams with 20+ wins and 5+ losses this season

TeamRecordRPILuck rankNo. of losses by 10+ points (margins)Avg. margin of defeat (points)
Arkansas20-5201302 (14, 18)8.2
<b>BYU</b><b>20-8</b><b>57</b><b>329</><b>0</b><b>4.7</b>
Colorado St.21-528242 (13, 11)8.6
Green Bay20-648623 (24, 14, 14)11.8
Iona21-6461122 (13, 17)7.8
Kansas21-51122 (32, 25)13.6
Louisiana Tech20-6752241 (20)8.7
Louisville20-5161461 (11)6.8
Maryland21-51054 (11, 19, 24, 16)15.4
NC Central20-6116564 (16, 20, 11, 34)15.3
Sam Houston St.21-5922502 (11, 11)7.2
San Diego St.21-6181392 (13, 15)7.8
SMU21-5231941 (16)8.4
VCU20-612852 (24, 17)10.5
Wofford21-64024 (15, 33, 29, 10)15.7
West Virginia20-626434 (27, 19, 18, 20)14.5
Wyoming21-678134 (13, 12, 23, 26)14.2

As noted, BYU has the most losses of any 20-win team, and has yet to suffer the fate of every other team on the list: at least one big loss on a bad night.

Furthermore, in six of BYU's eight losses, the Cougars held second-half and/or overtime leads; BYU had multiple-possession leads in all but one of the eight setbacks. A closer-look breakdown at the late-game scenarios that all went the opponents' way in BYU's eight losses this season:

No. 15 SDSU 92 BYU 87 (2OT); Maui Invitational

Large BYU lead: 5 points, 1:35 remaining in OT

Large BYU deficit: 11 points, 17:12 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 6

Lead changes: 4

Despite trailing 11-0 to start the game and failing to hold a single regulation lead, BYU opened up a five-point lead with 90 seconds to play in the first overtime. With BYU leading by five and 1:15 to play in OT, the Aztecs' Aqeel Quinn missed a three-pointer, but J.J. O'Brien rebounded the miss for a putback. Seconds later, with BYU leading by three, Chase Fischer turned the ball over against a trap at halfcourt. On the ensuing SDSU possession, another Aztecs missed three-pointer was rebounded by Fischer, but he was stripped by Skylar Spencer, who handed the ball to Quinn. Quinn blatantly traveled (missed by all three officials) to position himself at the arc, and he nailed a game-tying three-pointer with 10 seconds to play. On the following BYU trip down the floor, referee Randy McCall ignored an Aztec foul of Tyler Haws that would have put BYU's leading scorer at the line for go-ahead free throws. BYU missed a final shot and would go on to lose the game in a double-overtime session during which the Cougars never led.

--

Purdue 87 BYU 85 (OT); Maui Invitational

Large BYU lead: 4 points, 12:47 remaining in 1st half

Large BYU deficit: 8 points, 7:17 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 12

Lead changes: 11

With BYU leading by one point and under a minute to play, Purdue grabbed offensive rebounds off of two missed shots in the same possession, ending the possession with a game-tying free throw following a BYU foul, with 47 seconds to play. With 26 seconds remaining in a tie game, BYU had a chance to take the lead when Isaac Neilson drove to the rim. He missed the shot right at the basket, but got his own rebound. BYU called time out and set up a final shot. Haws missed that shot at the horn, and the game went to overtime. In OT, BYU never led; the Boilermakers made the game-winning shot with a second to play.

--

No. 13 Utah 65 at BYU 61

Large BYU lead: 4 points, 18:04 remaining in 1st half

Large BYU deficit: 13 points, 10:18 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 2

Lead changes: 3

Trailing by double digits early, BYU went on a late first-half run to lead by one at halftime and by four early in the second half. BYU lost the advantage, trailed by nine in the second half, but rallied to get within three points in the final minute. Haws missed a game-tying three-pointer with 32 seconds to play and would get no closer, losing by four.

--

No. 8 Gonzaga 87 at BYU 80

Large BYU lead: 6 points, 15:28 remaining in 2nd half

Large BYU deficit: 16 points, 9:06 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 6

Lead changes: 6

Trailing by 16 points halfway through the first half, BYU surged ahead and took a six-point lead with just over 15 minutes to play. Kevin Pangos then took over, scoring eight straight and 11 of the Zags' ensuing 14 points, as the visitors pushed ahead to a seven-point lead, late. Yet, in the final two minutes, BYU had three possessions in a three-point game: Haws missed a three-pointer, Anson Winder missed a two-point jumper, and Corbin Kaufusi turned the ball over. BYU would go on to lose by seven.

--

Pepperdine 67 at BYU 61

Large BYU lead: none

Large BYU deficit: 14 points, 6:03 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 0

Lead changes: 0

BYU never led, as Pepperdine got out to a 6-0 lead and didn't look back. Trailing by double-digits for much of the game, BYU did get back in the it late. Among BYU's final possessions, all with under 5:30 to play:

trailing by 3, missed layup

trailing by 3, turnover

trailing by 1, gives up offensive rebound, Pepperdine makes two free throws

trailing by 3, missed layup

trailing by 3, missed three-pointer

trailing by 1, missed jumper

trailing by 3, missed three-pointer

--

Saint Mary's 82 v. BYU 77

Large BYU lead: 6 points, 5:40 remaining in 1st half

Large BYU deficit: 11 points, 12:31 remaining in 2nd half

Ties: 5

Lead changes: 6

Leading by six late in the first half, BYU faded in the final five minutes of the half, trailing by eight at intermission. The Cougars got within three points on two occasions late in the game, the final time with under a minute to play. Seeking to defend the Gaels into a miss that would set up a game-tying possession, officials called a dubious foul on Skyler Halford that gave Saint Mary's free throws that would account for the final margin, as BYU lost by five.

--

San Diego 77 v. BYU 74

Large BYU lead: 9 points, 13:41 remaining in 2nd half

Large BYU deficit: 7 points, 11:04 remaining in 1st half

Ties: 5

Lead changes: 8

BYU led by as many as nine points in the second half, and by seven points with under seven minutes to play. That's when the wheels fell off. Previously slumping Johnny Dee hit a three, then Chase Fischer was called for a flagrant foul on the offensive end that turned the ball over, gave the Toreros two free throws and possession, which resulted in a dunk. From a seven-point lead to a tie game, in 24 seconds of clock time. Down three with 2:19 to play, BYU missed a three-pointer, and the deficit ballooned to seven points. After drawing to within one point on two occasions in the final minute, BYU was down two with three seconds to play, and missed on a Collinsworth drive to the rim.

--

Pepperdine 80 v. BYU 74

Large BYU lead: 16 points, 0:31 remaining in 1st half

Large BYU deficit: 9 points, 1:52 remaining in 2nd half

Ties: 3

Lead changes: 10

Playing without Chase Fischer (who was ruled out with concussion symptoms after taking a ball to the face in shoot-around earlier in the day), BYU led by as many as 16 points in the first half. A Pepperdine three-pointer at the halftime horn narrowed the gap to 13. After BYU opened the second half with a basket to take a 15-point lead, the Waves blitzed BYU, scoring 40 points in the first 15 minutes of the half (Pepperdine scored on 19 of 23 possessions during the stretch), to take a lead they would not relinquish. Down three with 4:20 to play, BYU missed a free throw, followed by a three-point miss with 3:45 remaining. Down four with 3:20 left, BYU missed another three-pointer and would get no closer than six points the rest of the way.

*******

If BYU makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large entrant, a win total around 25, a top 25 non-conference strength-of-schedule and top 100 overall SOS will be contributing factors. An RPI in the top 50 and a conference RPI in the top 10 will also be considered, as will other notable metrics (Pomeroy, Sagarin, BPI) which place BYU in the top 40.

BYU's current form suggests the team is playing some of its best basketball at the most important time of the year, and the Cougars are expected to be healthy in time for the postseason. In-season injury absences do play a role in committee assessments, and BYU has played multiple games without injured starters.

The fact that the West Coast Conference has been a multi-bid league since BYU joined the conference three seasons ago may be an additional anecdotal framing point, particularly since the WCC is rated higher this season than in any of the previous three seasons.

Should BYU defeat every remaining team on its schedule not named Gonzaga, not win the conference tournament and get left on the wrong side of the bubble, the difference will have been a handful of plays in a handful of games. As noted above, BYU's margin for error has been razor-thin this season—agonizingly so. If the Cougars can continue their late-season surge, there's still time to turn agony into exultation on Selection Sunday.

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Greg Wrubell

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