Bronco's boys v. the big boys: a case study


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As noted in my article ranking the games on BYU's 2014 football schedule, BYU is slated to face only three teams from the "power" conferences during the upcoming season. Yet, as an independent, BYU is playing more power teams on an annual basis than ever before.

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During the 29 seasons of the LaVell Edwards era, during which BYU played as a member of the WAC or MWC, the Cougars played a total of 80 games v. power teams, or an average of 2.8 such games per year.

During Gary Crowton's four seasons, as a member of the MWC, BYU faced 11 power teams; again, an average of 2.8 per year.

During the Bronco Mendenhall era's six MWC seasons, BYU faced 17 power teams; once again, 2.8 per year.

In the three completed seasons of football independence, however, with more opportunities to face higher-profile programs, the average jumps to 5.7 power games per season, with 17 of the Mendenhall era's 34 power games being played in just the last three years.

Note: In this article, power teams are those which, at the time of the meeting with BYU, belonged to one of the BCS/Power 5 conferences, inclusive of Notre Dame and former independents Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston College, Penn State, Florida State; also former members of the Southwest Conference and Big 8.

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While not part of the FBS power structure, BYU has maintained a remarkably steady—-and admittedly average—-level of performance against teams from the country's best conferences.

One could surmise that membership in one of those leagues might lead to an improved level of performance, considering a leveling of the playing field relative to the advantages maintained by most of those programs, but leaving that point aside, BYU has rarely been outclassed by the country's best programs over the last four decades.

Indeed, from start of the Edwards era through the first nine years of the Mendenhall era, BYU has put up numbers, that while not overwhelming, demonstrate and adequate level of competition on the field.

When considering additional factors such home attendance, TV ratings, national supporter reach, athletics facilities and general cachet within the college football world, BYU is on a very firm footing with the most powerful programs in the game.

Today, we'll examine BYU's competitive profile from a pure performance standpoint, with an emphasis on games played in the Mendenhall era, as recent outings are most relevant, considering the current landscape.

BYU v. Power teams, 1972 through 2013

Head CoachSeasonsRecordWin %Avg. points/game forAvg. points/game againstAvg. point differential
LaVell Edwards1972-200034-45-143.123.426.9-3.5 ppg
Gary Crowton2001-20045-645.523.227.1-3.9 ppg
Bronco Mendenhall2005-201315-1944.124.024.4-0.4 ppg

So, averaging 125 games played over more than 40 years, under three different coaching staffs, you get point productivity and win percentage numbers that have remained remarkably consistent.

The offensive standard has remained relatively static, while defensively, the Mendenhall era has been the stingiest by a decent margin, but without a notable uptick in win percentage. Mendenhall's 15-19 record against power teams could quite easily be flipped, but for a finishing touch that has been somewhat lacking of late; the Cougars are only 1-5 in their last six power-team games decided by seven points or fewer.

Of course, not all power teams are created equal. Here is a look at how BYU has performed against power teams that were ranked in either the AP or Coaches polls (or both) at the time of their meeting with BYU.

BYU v. ranked Power teams, 1972 through 2013

Head CoachSeasonsRecordWin %Avg. points/game forAvg. points/game againstAvg. point differential
LaVell Edwards1972-200014-22-139.220.929.4-8.5 ppg
Gary Crowton2001-20040-20.014.038.5-24.5 ppg
Bronco Mendenhall2005-20133-827.321.425.7-4.3 ppg

Discounting the small sample size of the Crowton era, here again we see the last nine seasons closely approximating the Edwards era in terms of offensive productivity, with again a better recent defensive profile, indicating more closely-contested games. But despite a saltier defensive performance, the Mendenhall-era results haven't been as favorable as those in the Edwards era.

Interestingly, two of Mendenhall's three wins over ranked power teams were by 19 points or more, while only one of his eight such losses matched the same margin the other way. BYU is having a tough time of late turning manageable games into victories, and much the of the responsibility lies with the offense; of the Mendenhall era's 11 games against ranked power teams, BYU has failed to score more than 17 points in six of the 11, and has scored more than 24 points only twice.

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Nevertheless, Mendenhall's power-team performance exceeds that of Edwards' teams, relative to win percentage, if ever so slightly (44.1% to 43.1%).

Power teams faced by BYU in the Mendenhall Era

TeamConferenceNumber of gamesBYU recordResults
ArizonaPac-1231-2L 13-16, W 20-7, L 21-31
Boston CollegeACC20-2L 3-20, L 23-30 (OT)
CaliforniaPac-1210-1L 28-35
Florida StateACC20-2L 28-54, L 10-34
Georgia TechACC22-0W 41-17, W 38-20
HoustonAAC (BCS-conf in 2013)11-0W 47-46
Notre DameIndependent30-3L 23-49, L 14-17, L 13-23
OklahomaBig 1211-0W 14-13
Ole MissSEC11-0W 14-13
OregonPac-1211-0W 38-8
Oregon StatePac-1232-1W 44-20, W 38-28, L 24-42
TexasBig 1221-1L 16-17, W 40-21
UCLAPac-1232-1L 17-27, W 17-16, W 59-0
UtahPac-1230-3L 10-54, L 21-24, L 13-20
VirginiaACC10-1L 16-19
WashingtonPac-1232-1W 28-27, W 23-17, L 16-31
Washington StatePac-1211-0W 30-6
WisconsinBig Ten10-1L 17-27
<b>CUMULATIVE RECORD</b><b>34</b><b>15-19 (44.1%)</b>

A closer examination of the Mendenhall era shows just how competitive BYU has been in its 34 games against programs from the country's top leagues. The numbers show some striking similarities in multiple key categories, as noted below (numbers that are identical or practically identical are shown in bold).

BYU v. Power teams, Mendenhall Era (2005 through 2013)

CategoryBYUPower opponents
Total games3434
Wins1519
BYU home W-L74
BYU away W-L511
BYU neutral W-L34
Avg. points for<b>24.0</b><b>24.4</b>
Total offense yards408.8 ypg353.1 ypg
Yards/play<b>5.3</b><b>5.3</b>
Rush yards<b>133.3 ypg</b><b>133.8 ypg</b>
Rush attempts/game36.334.2
Yards/rush<b>3.4</b><b>3.6</b>
Pass yards275.5 ypg219.3 ypg
Pass attempts/game41.132.5
Yards/attempt<b>6.7</b><b>6.7</b>
Pass completions/game24.519.4
Yards/completion<b>11.3</b><b>11.4</b>
Completion %<b>59.6</b><b>59.1</b>
Avg. pass efficiency rating125.73123.93
Avg. 3rd down conversion %43.834.7
Turnovers/game1.91.5
Red zone scoring %82.174.8
Red zone TD %<b>54.4</b><b>54.4</b>

In analyzing 34 games contested over nine seasons, BYU essentially plays the opposition to a statistical stalemate in some rather important areas, and has a notable advantage in others--3rd down conversion and red-zone scoring percentage, most significantly.

BYU averages about 11 more plays per game than the opposition, leading to a 55 yards per game edge in total offense, but more yards are not necessarily equating to more points. The chief culprit? Turnovers, of which BYU averages about two per game.

An average difference of only 0.4 turnovers per game in the opponents' favor may not seem like a significant factor, but when considered in plus/minus terms, BYU is minus-15 over 34 games. As shown above, turnovers represent the only category in which BYU is at a distinct disadvantage.

Broken down game-by-game, BYU won won the turnover battle in 10 games (plus-15), has been even in the turnover margin 10 times, and has lost the turnover battle in 14 games (minus-30). Included in that minus-30 number are a pair of minus-5 performances in home losses to Utah (2011) and Florida State (2009).

Note that in the Mendenhall era, BYU has a 45% win percentage when losing the turnover battle. Not coincidentally, BYU has won 44% of its 34 games against power teams, while carrying a negative overall margin. In all Mendenhall-coached games with a positive turnover margin, BYU is 45-5; that's a tidy 90% win rate, and basically twice the win percentage when compared to negative-margin performances.

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It may be over-generalizing, but when analyzing the above data and the similarities in performance between BYU and the nation's better programs, it's reasonable to infer that the Mendenhall-era record of 15-19 versus power teams could be closer to 19-15 with just a little better ball security.

Furthermore, if BYU had gone plus-15 instead of minus-15 in power games over the last nine seasons, we might instead be talking about how Mendenhall's Cougars had indeed reversed a so-so trend against top teams.

In the quest to take an average history and forge an impressive independence, turning the tables on the turnover margin may be the most reliable way to do it. Clearly, many other important pieces have been in place.

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Greg Wrubell

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