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SALT LAKE CITY — So close, yet so far away. As the saying goes, "almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades."
The Utes (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12) have come oh so close to picking up conference wins in their first two attempts, only to come up short, losing both games by a combined ten points.
Next up for the Utes is No. 5 Stanford that is coming off a 31-28 win over a ranked Washington team.
Kickoff for the Utes and Cardinal is 4:00 pm in Rice-Eccles Stadium. The game will be televised on the Pac-12 Network.
Can the Utes shock Stanford and pick up their first signature win in the Pac-12, let alone their first conference win of 2013? Here are five keys for the Utes to come away victorious:
In Utah's three nonconference games, the Utes turned the ball over just once. In two Pac-12 games, the Utes have turned it over a whopping nine times.
It is brutally tough to overcome any deficit in the turnover margin, let alone ones of -3 and -5. The most discouraging fact comes in that the Utes lost both games by a combined 10 points, leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what might have been.
How can the Utes be relatively turnover free against nonconference foes, yet the flood gates open up when they play in Pac-12 games? You can't affix it to just one aspect of the game, but rather each position group as a whole on offense.
To me, it starts up front on the line. Oregon State and UCLA were able to get pressure on Travis Wilson, hurrying his reads, hitting him while he threw and creating overall havoc for the Utes offensively. For the Utes to have a shot against Stanford, the line needs to step up. Utah has the largest offensive line that Stanford will face in Pac-12 play, and its time the Utes live up to their potential up front. Give Wilson time to throw and good things will happen.
After a pass is thrown, its up to the receiver to haul it in. On four of Utah's six interceptions against UCLA, the wide receiver wasn't able to haul in the pass, knocking it up in the air for an easy interception by the Bruin defense. The general rule - if you can get your hands on it, its up to you to catch it.
Lastly, quarterback play needs to be more consistent. Don't force the ball into triple coverage, make sure to go through your progression and don't be afraid to check the ball down if your receiver isn't open.
Being only 11% proficient at something generally isn't a good indication that you will be successful. Yet that is right where the Utes find themselves on third down conversions over their last two games.
3-27. 24 out of 27 times you've faced a third down conversion, you have failed. Breaking down the stats, Utah's three conversions were 8, 3, and 6 yards (5.67 avg). Utah's 24 failures came on 3rd and an average of 8.33, indicating that the problem may be on first and second down production. But that's not necessarily the case. Four times in the last two games the Utes have faced a seemingly manageable down and distance - two yards or less. And all four times the Utes have been unsuccessful.
The Utes have ran the football on only four out of the last 27 third downs - twice with QB Travis Wilson, and twice with a running back. The runs came on third downs of 1, 2, 1 and 13 yards, and none were successful.
The passing numbers aren't much better, granted the three conversions the Utes picked up came through the air. On conversions, Wilson was 3-3 for 48 yards. On ones the Utes didn't pick up, Wilson was 3-19 for just 14 yards, also getting sacked once.
What does it all mean? First off, you need better production from the running backs (see Key #4). And secondly, avoiding third and longs will be crucial against an aggressive Cardinal defense.
The Utes are 105th in the country in third down conversions this season (31.3%), something that will have to improve for the Utes to have a chance to shock Stanford.
The Utes are no strangers to a dangerous return specialist. Stanford's Ty Montgomery fits right into that category. Montgomery had 290 all-purpose yards in Stanford's 31-28 win over Washington, including a 99-yard kickoff return to start the game.
Montgomery is averaging 33.5 yards on 13 kickoff returns in 2013, enough to improve Stanford's starting field position to the 38.4 yard line, good for second in the country.
Huge underdogs already, the Utes can't spot the Cardinal another 13 yards every drive. Kick the ball out of the end zone and make them start at the 25.
Utah has opted to have a running back by committee approach because one of the three backs has yet to separate themselves from the pack. The result? While the backs are averaging between 4-6 yards per carry, the end result has been inconsistent at best. 3rd and 1 and you can't get that yard?
Pick a starter, build his confidence, and be pleased with the production when he gets into a rhythm. And by rhythm I don't mean consecutive carries - I am looking more into the 25-30 carries over the course of 60 minutes for a running back to get a feel for the game.
Coach Whitt had this to say, "We're trying to find out if one of the three will separate themselves, and right now they're all giving us good production... It's not a situation where we're searching for someone to give us some production because we're getting production. It's we're searching to see if anyone's going to separate themselves, and if not, then they'll all continue to get carries."
The Utes have lost their first two conference games by a combined 10 points. Utah had its chances in both games - one play made here or there might have proved the difference between sitting at 2-0 in conference rather than trying to avoid a third consecutive 0-4 Pac-12 start.
So far in 2013 it has been the opposition that has stepped up to the table and pushed their weight around.
"We've had two close games that we lost," Whittingham said. "I think we're knocking at the door. We've got to make a few more plays -- that's the short version. When you're close like that, it usually comes down to a play or two or three plays that's the difference, which has been the case in those two games. The opponents have made those plays, and we haven't. We've got to find a way to make those plays."
