SALT LAKE CITY — On Tuesday, July 19, Bob Bowlsby, the commissioner of the Big 12, told the media over a teleconference that that the conference’s presidents had universally agreed to allow him to explore expansion opportunities. Immediately, the ears of every college football team looking to grab a bigger piece of the college football TV revenue pie began to burn, including BYU.

Most national pundits, when ranking contenders for expansion, ranked BYU at or near the top.

In typical Big 12 fashion, when the first endorsement came down, it landed with Houston, from the University of Texas, which had been rumored to be the voice of opposition to adding another team from the Texas area. An endorsement followed from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, then fellow Big 12 member Texas Tech.

Texas and Oklahoma are the bellwethers of the Big 12 and will likely have a large say in which teams are and aren’t included in conference expansion. When TCU joined the Big 12 in the last round of conference expansion, it was a meeting between the Horned Frogs' athletic director Chris Del Conte and Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds that sealed the deal. Del Conte reportedly met with Dodds over libations, and sealed TCU’s fate.

With Texas now endorsing Houston as a primary candidate for expansion, the Houston Cougars' hopes of getting into the Big 12 increased dramatically.

But what does the endorsement of the Cougars of Houston say about Big 12 expansion, and what does it say about the hopes of the Cougars from BYU?

First and foremost, including Houston means any previous predictions about who the top candidates were can be thrown out the window. Houston appeared to be the team most frequently mentioned as a Big 12 expansion candidate that couldn’t secure the backing of the decision-makers at Texas. As another team in Texas, with potential to become as competitive as both TCU and Baylor, that could poach recruits from the Longhorns grasp, Houston Cougars seemed like a long shot for conference expansion. Low and behold, they are the leaders out of the gate.

Second, it means the Big 12 may be willing to stay west.

In an article from Brent Sobleski at NBC Sports, Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said, “We have one member in West Virginia that’s on the East Coast, we have to be mindful of their situation. If we took somebody in that was on the far West Coast it would certainly do a disservice to our member in West Virginia.”

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If Houston makes the grade, concerns over a travel partner for West Virginia may have been overstated. While there will be more spaces available in expansion for teams nearer to the East Coast, it wouldn’t appear the Big 12 is solely looking to infiltrate Eastern TV markets.

Unfortunately, it appears that fears of underhandedness may influence the Big 12’s direction in expansion. USA Today’s Dan Wolken reported that Houston booster Tilman Fertitta contributed $150,000 to Greg Abbott’s gubernatorial campaign. Two years later, Abbott is backing Houston's bid for the Big 12. For those hoping to ramp up their campaign to join the conference, the race for expansion may have begun years ago in arenas that don’t include football or basketball.

Additionally, current conference alignment may not mean much to the Big 12 when finding future conference members. Houston is in the American Athletic Conference, and according to Brett McMurphy of ESPN, the exit requirements for the AAC are a 27-month notice of leave, and a $10 million buyout. If the Big 12 is either comfortable waiting more than two years to expand, or is confident a more rapid buyout could be agreed upon, previous perceived roadblocks may be nothing more than minor inconveniences.

What does this mean for BYU? Some of it is good and some of it is bad.

Primarily, if the Big 12 is truly considering Houston, after rumors to the contrary, it means anybody in college football might be considered. While Houston was certainly frequently mentioned among the candidates, it seemed to have the most glaring red flag, competing for recruits in Texas. As goes for Houston, anyone who had written off BYU as a candidate likely needs to rethink their logic.

Potentially staying west is a huge positive for BYU also. If the conference was dead set on expanding east, BYU would be the first team eliminated from contention. Focusing on more than playing in the Eastern time zone means BYU’s geography won’t be what keeps it from playing among college football’s best.

If political donors are in fact influencing the Big 12’s expansion decisions, BYU may be at a major disadvantage. In addition to hundreds of thousands of dollars exchanging hands in political campaigns, Houston officials may be willing to agree to future expansion of a University of Texas satellite campus in the Houston area, if they are invited to join the conference. BYU simply can’t offer those types of perks.

Finally, and potentially most devastating for BYU would be the Big 12’s willingness to wait on expansion to include AAC members. If the Big 12 can wait for Houston, what stops them from waiting for Cincinnati, Memphis, UConn, South Florida or Central Florida to clear their exit hurdles before expanding? BYU’s move to independence was largely influenced by the ability to join an expanding conference at a moment's notice. If Houston can join the conference, one of BYU’s biggest bargaining chips may fall by the wayside.

Make no mistake, when looking at tradition, recent history, athletic success, facilities, audience and potential for growth, BYU fits the bill as the perfect candidate for conference expansion. But remember, this is the Big 12, where logical decision-making usually gives way to the more dramatic storyline.

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