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How big is Saturday's game at UNLV? If BYU wins, you can pencil the Cougars in for an outright conference title and the #1 seed at the MWC Tournament.

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If BYU were to beat UNLV, the Cougars would be 8-1 in league play, own the tiebreak with the Rebels, and be favored to win every remaining game on their schedule. The Rebels and six other MWC teams would have at least three league losses. Two-loss New Mexico still has to play at UNLV and at BYU; a third league loss is all but inevitable. A BYU win in Las Vegas would essentially give the Cougars at least a one-loss buffer in its quest for a conference crown.

While slip-ups sometimes happen, and conference play is often unpredictable, BYU is as predictable a team as you will find in the MWC. I have mentioned the fact that Dave Rose has gone 9-1 in his final ten regular season conference games in each of his four previous seasons; a similar finish this season will clinch a fourth straight conference championship. Rose's conference home record is now 36-1, so counting on BYU winning its remaining three home games is a relatively safe bet.

As for BYU's road schedule, four away games will remain after Saturday--at CSU (4-4), Wyoming (2-6), Utah (3-5) and TCU (2-6):

Rose's record at:

CSU: 3-1

Wyoming: 4-0

Utah: 2-2

TCU: 4-0

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As for UNLV, well, Dave Rose is due. He and his teams are 0-6 against the Rebels in Las Vegas.

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While the 20-win Lobos are nationally-ranked, it is UNLV and not New Mexico that poses the most serious threat to the Cougars' four-peat hopes. Yes, the Runnin' Rebels inexplicably lost at home to Utah (and that loss looks worse every day), but UNLV negated that loss with a more important win at The Pit--a place at which BYU lost.

So, New Mexico lost at home to UNLV, while BYU won its home game with UNLV. The Lobos also lost at SDSU; BYU won in San Diego. Those should be two significant difference-makers.

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While BYU remains in the MWC driver's seat even with a loss to UNLV, the Rebels would be boosted by a Saturday win and hopeful of a number one seed on their home floor next month.

If UNLV can beat BYU, UNLV's presumed sweep of the Lobos would trump BYU's presumed split with the Lobos, if and when it comes to tiebreakers at the top of the standings. The Utes will almost certainly finish too far down in the standings for their upset over UNLV to factor into any tiebreaking.

Also consider that UNLV has already played five conference road games and won four, with the lone loss coming in Provo. Of the Rebels' three remaining road games, two are at Utah (3-5) and Air Force (1-7). If UNLV can defeat the Cougars on Saturday, the Rebels' chances for a conference crown may come down to winning a road game at San Diego State a week from Saturday--something easier said than done. Within a week and a half, we should know if either UNLV or New Mexico remain in the title chase.

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UNLV's 78-50 dismantling of Wyoming last night (worst loss in Arena-Auditorium history) has nudged the Rebels to the front of the MWC "Plus-Minus" standings:

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Plus-Minus Standings

A point is gained for a road win, and a point lost for a home loss--no points awarded for home wins or road losses:

1. UNLV +3

2. BYU +2

2. UNM +2

4. SDSU +1

5. CSU 0

6. Utah -1

7. TCU -2

7. Air Force -2

8. Wyoming -3

Note: Since league expansion for the 2006 MWC season, every league champion has been at least +4. Since the league's inception in 1999, every +5 team has won the conference championship.

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BYU is the only team in the league without at least one "slip-up." My current definition of a slip-up is any home loss in league play, or any road loss to a team in the bottom five of the league standings (CSU, Utah, TCU, Wyoming and Air Force).

These are my "Slip-up Standings" at the halfway point of the MWC season, with points scored as follows:

Road Loss (v. opponents in MWC top four): 0

Road Loss (v. opponents in MWC bottom five): -1

Home Win (top four): +1

Home Win (bottom five): 0

Road Win: (top four): +2

Road Win (bottom five): +1

Home Loss (top four): -1

Home Loss (bottom five): -2

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2010 Slip-up Standings:

1. BYU +4

1. UNLV +4

3. UNM +3

4. SDSU +1

5. CSU 0

6. Utah -2

7. TCU -3

8. Wyoming -5

8. Air Force -5

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Note: every MWC team except BYU has at least one home conference loss.

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Utah's defense of its 2009 MWC regular season tri-championship ended with a whimper and not a bang last night at the Huntsman Center. A lethargic Ute squad lost by 15 at home to a CSU team BYU blized by 44 in Provo, and the Utes are now 6th in the MWC at 3-5.

The Huntsman Center has gone from practically impenetrable to eminently hospitable; the Utes are 7-6 at home this season. Another way of putting it is Utah has lost twice as many home games this season as BYU has lost in almost five full seasons under Dave Rose, who is now 74-3 at the Marriott Center. And that is why the "big name schools" will play in Salt Lake City, but won't make the trip down I-15.

When Rose took over at BYU, these were the top four teams in the MWC:

Conference wins only:

1. Utah 63-21 (.750)

2. UNLV 48-36 (.571)

2. BYU 48-36 (.571)

2. Wyoming 48-36 (.571)

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Overall wins:

1. Utah 141-53 (.727)

2. UNLV 116-70 (.624)

3. BYU 117-71 (.622)

4. Wyoming 108-72 (.600)

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Today, these are the top four teams:

Conference wins only:

1. BYU 106-50 (.679)

2. UNLV 97-59 (.621)

2. Utah 97-59 (.621)

4. New Mexico 81-75 (.519)

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Overall wins:

1. BYU 236-107 (.688)

2. UNLV 229-113 (.670)

3. Utah 218-124 (.637)

4. New Mexico 203-134 (.602)

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During Dave Rose's tenure, BYU is a full 24 games better than its instate rival in league play and 38.5 games better overall, and that is extremely significant. Whether considering the effect on recruiting (instate, particularly), marketing, attendance, postseason participation or whatever your chosen metric, BYU's current dominance in the rivalry cannot be overstated.

Since taking over a 9-21 program, Rose has fewer conference and overall losses in five seasons than Jim Boylen has in three seasons, and no one will argue that Rose's recovery job was any easier than the one Boylen inherited on the hill:

Rose (Fifth season)

Overall: 119-36

MWC: 58-14

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Boylen (Third season)

Overall: 52-37

MWC: 22-18

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