Looking beyond 2010 to 2012

Looking beyond 2010 to 2012


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(AP file photo)PROVO -- A busy Tuesday of midterm primaries is now in the rearview, and the 2012 general election may seem far away, but now is actually an important time for presidential hopefuls.

Kelly Patterson, political science professor and director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, says those hopefuls are busy "shadow campaigning."

"This is where individuals test messages," Patterson tells KSL Newsradio. "This is where they gather resources. This is where they assemble their own coalitions."

Mitt Romney, already a one-time presidential candidate, has been ramping up his rhetoric against President Obama's economic policies.

Most recently, Romney wrote an op-ed to the Boston Globe. In it, Romney contended the president's policies have extended the economic downtown.

Democratic critics contend Romney is flip-flopping on the issue. They point to Romney's book, "No Apology," where he said the Democrats' stimulus would accelerate the timing of the economic recovery.

Still, it's unclear whether the apparent flip-flop will have any staying power with voters in two years.

"[If] the opposing candidates can't make an issue of it, sometimes it's not seen as flip-flopping. Sometimes it's seen as wise," Patterson says. "Whether or not it plays out as a flip-flopping narrative or a wise-statesman narrative is still yet to be seen."

Looking ahead to 2012, Patterson says it is difficult to place one GOP hopeful above the other right now. Another front-runner, Sarah Palin, continues to find herself in the middle of controversy. Her most recent involves her statements on the plans for a ground zero mosque.

"This is an insensitive move on the part of those Muslims," she recently told MSNBC in a television interview.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is being seen as a GOP option with less baggage than Romney or Palin. The problem is, it doesn't appear Bush has any interest in a White House bid.

"I'm dead set -- I'm not running," Bush told reporters during a news conference on education Tuesday in Salt Lake City.

Patterson talks up Bush's potential.

"He's one of those individuals who has a great deal of power and influence. A lot of people think [he's] a wonderful candidate," Patterson says. "Everything depends on whether or not he really wants to pursue the presidency. He's seen it from his father and his brother and knows how difficult and grueling it can be."

Bush says his primary focus is on the 2010 midterms.

Former Utah governor and current U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is also seen as a 2012 possibility, though his stint in China may put him behind.

"Once again, the shadow campaigns begin now, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to throw his hat in the ring," Patterson says.

E-mail: aadams@ksl.com

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