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The most anticipated Pac-12 game of the season didn't produce the most impactful result of the week.
UCLA's double-digit victory over Arizona on Tuesday night didn't materially alter the trajectory of either team. Both are on course for high seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
But up in Eugene, the postseason landscape shifted.
Bold pronouncement time: Colorado's win at Oregon stands as the most important result for any team this season to date because of the resume rocket fuel it provides a team in desperate need.
The Buffaloes were winless in Quadrant I games and on the far outskirts of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Essentially, CU was living in the bubble exurbs.
Now, the Buffs have a signature win — one that propelled them nine spots in the NET rankings, to No. 76. That's only a small winning streak from the bubble's metropolitan area.
Sure, their non-conference schedule is soft (No. 312 in the Pomeroy ratings), they have a bad loss (Southern Illinois), and their list of conquests is stocked with teams that have no chance to reach the NCAAs.
But for the first time all season, it's possible to envision the Buffaloes sneaking into March Madness — and you don't need hallucinogenic drugs to do it.
We're not suggesting the Buffs are a smart bet for the NCAAs, or even that they're more likely than Oregon to snatch an at-large bid.
But we're saying that finally, after three-and-a-half months, there's a chance …
Welcome to the Hotline's updated NCAA projections.
— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.
(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed in order of NET ranking (through Tuesday) …
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 2
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0
NCAA projection: No. 2 seed
Comment: For their resume to blossom, the Wildcats need Illinois to fare well in Big Ten play. The one-point victory over Michigan State earlier this week certainly qualifies.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 13
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-0
NCAA projection: No. 2 seed
Comment: Big wins often result in detours through Letdown City. Are the Bruins the exception?
USC
NET Ranking: No. 22
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-0
NCAA projection: No. 4 seed
Comment: The Trojans have four games left against UCLA, Arizona and Oregon. Only the Bruins visit the Galen Center.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 58
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Simply beating the teams they're supposed to beat won't be enough for the Cougars. They need an A-level win to reach the NCAAs — and probably more than one.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 59
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2
NCAA projection: No. 11 seed
Comment: We'll reference Newton's Third Law here: The equal and opposite reaction to Colorado beating Oregon in Eugene is Oregon losing to Colorado in Eugene. And those are precisely the games the Ducks must win given their fragile resume.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 76
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Now that the Buffs have given themselves a chance, we have one piece of advice: Don't blow it. (Losing in Seattle on Thursday night would be the very definition of blowing it.)
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 98
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 6-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Major opportunity for the Cardinal this week in Los Angeles as time runs short for them to make the push necessary to climb onto the bubble.
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 123
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Utes haven't won since before Christmas. Yet they occupy the same spot in the NET — exactly the same spot — that they did two weeks ago.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 130
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Bears are smack in the middle of the toughest stretch of their season, and it's smacking them around.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 143
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Huskies aren't going anywhere without winning the Pac-12 tournament. But to our way of thinking, not going anywhere is slightly better than going nowhere. And we assumed they would be going nowhere.
Arizona State
NET ranking: No. 154
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 4-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: There are 208 Division I teams ranked below the No. 150 mark in the NET, but only one of them can claim two Quad I victories. That would be ASU.
Oregon State
NET ranking: No. 228
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-5
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The ugliest aspect of OSU's resume — and the most damaging for any opponent that loses to the Beavers — isn't the lack of Quad I and II victories; it's the five Quad III and IV defeats.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
