SALT LAKE CITY — To make minor moves or go for broke?

The NBA's free agency market opens up beginning on Saturday at 10 p.m. MT, and that's among the questions that the Jazz's front office, led by general manager Dennis Lindsey, will be trying to answer. Past free agencies have been more player-focused, with questions like "Will Gordon Hayward choose Utah?" at the top of the lists.

But in 2018, the Jazz have set themselves up so they're largely the ones making the decisions. Sure, they'll still need agreement from the players themselves, but thanks to Utah's newfound competitiveness, long-term future, and desirable locker room culture, the Jazz's situation is near the top of the list for all but the very top free agents.

So what's on Lindsey's list this summer? Let's go some of through his decisions.

To stay over the cap or drop everything to go under it?

In order to open up enough room to have a maximum salary slot for a player like Paul George under the NBA's cap, the Jazz would have to do the following:

• Waive Thabo Sefolosha, Ekpe Udoh, and Jonas Jerebko.
• Renounce the rights to re-sign Derrick Favors, Dante Exum, and Raul Neto.
• Incentivize another team that is under the cap to take on Alec Burks' contract for nothing in return. This would likely cost the Jazz a first-round pick.

The next tier of free agents below the max guys is all restricted, meaning that their current NBA team can match whatever contract they're offered. In order for the Jazz to get Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker or Julius Randle, they probably have to offer at least $15 million to convince their current teams not to match the contract. And to open up that cap space, they'd have to waive Sefolosha, Udoh, and Jerebko and renounce the rights to Favors and Exum. It's very hard to argue doing all of that is worth it for those free agents.

Given the risk involved, I expect the Jazz to stay over the cap for the summer. That would allow them to keep all of the players currently on the roster mentioned above, and add middle-tier free agents through two different mechanisms:

• The Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, worth about $9 million per year on a long-term contract, and the
• The Bi-Annual Exception, worth about 3.5 million per year.

There will be one telling clue even before free agency begins, though: the Jazz have to decide whether or not to waive Sefolosha on or before July 1, or else his contract will be guaranteed for next season. If the Jazz keep Sefolosha, the over-the-cap plan is probably the way they're going. If they waive him, they probably have some surprisingly big plans this summer.

Will the Jazz beat other teams' offers for Derrick Favors?

Derrick Favors is the Jazz's most important free agent because of his versatility. He can play both the power forward spot next to Rudy Gobert or play the role of the league's best backup center behind him. It's easy to imagine a better conceptual fit for the first role, but losing Favors probably means signing two players to replace what he brings. That may not be feasible with the Jazz's salary exceptions named above.

But Favors does want to test the free agency market. "I’m definitely excited about being a free agent for the first time and pretty much getting a chance to control my own destiny," Favors told The Undefeated this week. "I’m just trying to find the right situation that makes sense for me as a player. Be in the right spot. Get a chance to showcase my talent. Get a chance to showcase what I can do. I’m just focused on finding the right situation that is the right fit for me."

Here's the problem for Favors. There just aren't going to be too many teams seriously interested in his services this summer. Here are the teams that can realistically make cap space for themselves: the Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls.

• The Sixers are the only good team in that group, and they have Joel Embiid and would have to dump J.J. Redick, Ersan Ilyasova, and Marco Belinelli.
• The Suns, Kings, Bulls and Magic just drafted lottery bigs and have more young big men in spades behind them. It's hard to imagine them being interested in Favors.
• The Lakers, Sixers, and Mavericks want to use their salary cap space on LeBron James, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan, probably not Favors.
• The Pacers have Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner entrenched at the big spots, and Favors would get even less playing time than he does in Utah.

So again, the Jazz have the upper hand in these negotiations, barring a surprise offer. In fact, it's probably in both parties' best interest to sign a one-year deal for Favors at around his current salary. Then, Favors will be a free agent next year when most of the league will have cap space, and the Jazz can use their salary flexibility on an All-Star if possible next year.

Should the Jazz match on Exum?

If you look at that list of teams with cap space, it's a lot easier to find homes for Dante Exum, given his youth and guard skills. But still, will teams be willing to give a player who has shown such little on-court production over the last four years a big-money contract?

I'm skeptical that it will happen, but I'd expect the Jazz will match any offer under $10 million per season or so: they invested the fifth overall pick on him in 2014, and still believe in his future. But beyond that, it starts to get dicey.

Maybe the most likely outcome is the Jazz negotiating with Exum's agent on a contract right out of the gate on July 1. That way, there won't be any surprises for either party: neither a big offer from a bad team to scare Utah, not the complete lack of offers that would crater Exum's value.

Related topics