Previewing the tougher-than-ever NBA Western Conference


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SALT LAKE CITY — The NBA regular season is just four days away, and so now seems like a good time to preview the Western Conference. It's tougher than ever, with Eastern Conference All-Stars moving over to the West.

Jazz guard Rodney Hood was asked about the challenge of the West. "Being a basketball fan, it looks exciting," Hood said. "You see different teams you might put up there, but we never get caught up in preseason rankings."

For fans, though, with all of the changes, it's not a bad idea to give a survey of all that has changed. Who's getting in the playoffs, and who's coming up just short? Let's take a look.

1. Golden State

Spoiler alert: They're going to win this year's championship too. If all you care about in sports is seeing who wins the trophy at the end of the year, then now is a reasonable time to check out of the NBA season.

But if you care about the journey along the way, seeing fun sportsball action, greatness, and timeframes beyond the immediate future, there's still a lot of reason to watch. And actually, the Warriors are a really good example of this: They're still one of the most beautiful examples of basketball we've ever seen. If they win 60-65 games this year, which seems low, they'll be on the greatest four-year run of regular season dominance we'll have ever seen.

And there's no reason to think they got worse, either. New additions Omri Casspi and Nick Young should only help their bench out. The only thing that will bring this team down is massive injury woes or massive infighting, and even then, they'd still be favorites.

2. Houston

This year's team is all about how well Chris Paul and James Harden fit together. Remember, James Harden had one of the best offensive seasons ever last year when head coach Mike D'Antoni moved him to the point, and now the man some call the "Point God" is joining Houston.

But both guys are so radically efficient and smart that their offense is going to be elite, either first or second in the league. Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, and Clint Capela make for a nice supporting cast. The defense is a question mark (especially in the playoffs), but not so much more so than last year, thanks to adding Paul.

3. Oklahoma City

The second/third seed race in the West is going to be a battle, and most are predicting the Thunder to come out on top. I get it: Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony are legit stars, and Steven Adams is probably still underrated. But all three of their stars are good-but-not-great-efficiency scorers, and all but George have defensive questions. They're going to be better than last year, but I think the skills overlap and will put a ceiling on their potential.

4. San Antonio

Gregg Popovich is a sorcerer and will probably get 55 to 60 wins out of this team. But their offseason was really weird. They added Rudy Gay (has he ever made a team better?) coming off an Achilles tear and Joffrey Lauvergne. DeWayne Dedmon, Jonathon Simmons and David Lee are all gone. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Pau Gasol are all getting older in very noticeable ways. And Kawhi Leonard is still dealing with a quad injury and will probably take his fair share of games this year to rest.

Leonard is still amazing, and LaMarcus Aldridge and Danny Green still are good players. Keeping Patty Mills was critical. But interior defense is going to be a large concern. The Spurs will still be good, but they have to find ways to be better in the future to truly compete.

5. Minnesota

They added Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague, and still have Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. That's very promising! The biggest question mark: Can Tom Thibodeau turn the defense (last year: 27th) around? Butler will help a lot, but the biggest spot of improvement needs to come from Towns, who was very up-and-down with his defensive effort and positioning last year. I'm somewhat skeptical about a jump into the league's top half on defense, but still think they should end up here because of their talent.

6. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers lost Chris Paul, one of the biggest difference-making stars of this generation. That will hurt. But adding Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic will help make up that loss, and Danilo Gallinari is talented too if he can stay healthy and get another year away from his ACL surgery.

But I think I believe in this team most because of Blake Griffin and how talented he is. When Paul was off the floor and Griffin was on last season, Griffin played the role of playmaker really well. He's a good jump shooter, finisher at the rim, rebounder, and even can be a solid defender when focused. His traditional power forward role might be disappearing, but Griffin is so multi-dimensional that I think he'll be okay.

7. Utah

Yes, they lost Gordon Hayward and George Hill, their two top scorers from last year. They're going to be iffy offensively, and the spacing is going to look bogged down for big stretches of games. But Quin Snyder's system in the half court is difficult enough to defend for all 24 seconds that teams will fall asleep and allow for some open looks, and they might have the game's biggest offensive rebound putback threat in Rudy Gobert. They also might get a few more points in transition, though I'm very skeptical that this will be an above-average team from a pace perspective.

The defense, though, will be elite. Last year, the Jazz were third on that end of the floor, and they should be better this year. George Hill walked through some defensive possessions after his injury last year, but Ricky Rubio is a ball-pressuring, steals-gathering force on that end. Joe Ingles moves into the starting lineup, and he's proven to be a huge problem for the other team's guards. And the Jazz should get more minutes out of the Derrick Favors/Rudy Gobert combo, which is probably the best defensive frontcourt in basketball. All in all, it'll be enough to get them 45 wins and into the playoffs.

8. Denver

This Denver team will be fun to watch, thanks to the brilliance of Nikola Jokic, the league's best playmaking center, and new addition Paul Millsap. The Nuggets were second in the league last year offensively after the All-Star break, and while I don't think they'll be that good for a whole year, a top-five finish isn't crazy.

The problem for them last season was on the defensive end, and it will still be an issue. But Millsap will help a lot. Millsap will play his role as Draymond Green-lite, forcing a surprising number of steals and generally giving defensive structure to a loose unit. Overall, they'll be leaky enough on this end to keep them at the bottom of the playoff picture. In the Western Conference this year, though, that's a big accomplishment.

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