Previewing the NBA's Western Conference


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SALT LAKE CITY — "It's the wild, wild West."

That's Jazz newcomer Joe Johnson's chosen term for his new competition, and indeed the NBA's Western Conference is pretty spicy, with a lot of interesting battles for playoff positioning.

"I feel like everybody's gotten better, better from already pretty good. It's still extremely competitive," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder said. "We're a little bit of a fashionable pick."

With that in mind, let's preview the Western Conference. All record predictions are my own.

1. Golden State Warriors 73-9

The team that set a new record last season with 73 wins has said they don't want to chase that record again, but even if they're not going at 100 percent all season long, who do they lose to? How do you defend Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant on the floor together at the same time? Imagine the Warriors' death lineup (which, oh by the way, outscored opponents by a ridiculous 47 points per 100 possessions last season) with Durant instead of Harrison Barnes? Yes, there are going to be chemistry issues, on and off the court. But when you have this much talent, the Warriors can underperform and still win by 15 points per game. That's how good they are.

2. San Antonio Spurs 59-23

The Spurs were one of the best teams of all-time last season, with arguably the best defense ever. Naturally, they finished second in their conference. They come back with Pau Gasol replacing the retired Tim Duncan. I don't think people realize how impactful Duncan was in his final season last year: the 12th highest RPM in the league thanks to his still game-changing defense. Gasol's below average defensively, so that will really hurt. But they're still the Spurs, they still have Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, and they're still going to be smarter than any team out there. An 8-win drop from last season's total seems fair.

3. Los Angeles Clippers 55-27

The Clippers still don't really have depth beyond their top four, and it seems unbelievable that GM Doc Rivers can't find coach Doc Rivers a reasonable starting SF option. But, for the fourth straight season, here we are. But Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick are still incredible players. Griffin's the closest thing we've had to Karl Malone since Karl Malone. Paul's still savviest point guard in the league with an unstoppable mid-range shot. Jordan's become nearly as good as a defender as Rivers thought he was two years ago. And Redick is maybe the most underrated player in the NBA, scoring 16.3 points per game and leading the league in 3-point percentage. That's going to get them 55 wins and a top playoff spot once again.

4. Utah Jazz 50-32

Whoa, the Utah Jazz are all the way up here after missing out of the playoffs after last season. But this isn't homerism: CBSSports said the Jazz have the best bench in the league, and the NBA's fifth best starting lineup. That depth is being immediately tested, as the Jazz figure to start the season without Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, and Alec Burks. But George Hill and Dante Exum immediately turn the point guard position from a crippling weakness into a strength, and Rudy Gobert has started to figure out how to use his teammates to get easy points while still being the best rim protector in the world.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder 47-35

Without Kevin Durant, the Thunder are going to be significantly worse, there's no doubt about that. But the 2014-15 Thunder, which played 55 games without Durant and finished with 45 wins, gives us a template for how this team will perform: Russell Westbrook will lead the league in possessions used, put up incredible triple-doubles, and just generally be the league's most exciting player for an entire season. This team also has more depth than the Thunder of old: they're starting Victor Oladipo instead of Perry Jones. They're going to dominate the glass, which makes up for some of the lack of outside shooting.

6. Portland Trail Blazers 45-37

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are still fantastic, and I believe in Mason Plumlee. Allen Crabbe (24) and Mo Harkless (23) could still take steps forward, after signing big contracts this offseason. But this team took a lot of weird steps, too. Evan Turner can't shoot beyond about 18 feet: I watched him go 1-10 from the corner three with no defender in warmups Wednesday. Shabazz Napier is playing a weirdly big role: he shot 33 percent last season. And what happens if Al-Farouq Aminu's 3-point shooting heads back down to 27 percent, where it's been his whole career, instead of 36 percent last year? This team will be about as good as it was last season, but I don't foresee any big steps forward.

7. Memphis Grizzlies 44-38

I'm somewhat concerned about the mesh between David Fizdale and the Grizzlies' roster, though most of those worries have to do with Fizdale going away from Zach Randolph. Mike Conley's legitimately excellent, and will probably take on a bigger role, as Marc Gasol slightly declines and Zach Randolph likely moves to the bench. JaMychal Green, Randolph's starting replacement, is having a good preseason, and may prove himself a reasonable starter still. Chandler Parsons' knee issues are very troubling, though, and beyond him, there's way too much reliance on trick-or-treat Tony Allen and Vince Carter for me to feel good about.

8. Dallas Mavericks 42-40

I just can't pick a Rick Carlisle-coached team to miss the playoffs. Once again, the roster doesn't really seem good enough: Harrison Barnes isn't much of an upgrade over Chandler Parsons, if one at all, and Dirk Nowitzki probably won't be a better defender this year after being unplayable at times last year. And yet, Carlisle continues to figure out thing that work that trick the rest of the league. Lineups with three point guards (with new signing Seth Curry replacing Ray Felton), weird zone and switching schemes, and more. Wesley Matthews might be better than last year with more time since his Achilles tear, and Andrew Bogut will play a bigger role than he did in Golden State.

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Andy Larsen

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