3 keys to beating the Broncos


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BOISE, Idaho — The BYU football team, riding a three-game winning streak, heads up to Boise to take on the Boise State Broncos on the smurf turf in a Thursday night showcase on ESPN. Here are three keys for a Cougar victory.

Keep the Broncos’ offense off the field

It’s arguable that Boise State has the best offense the Cougars will face this year (Toledo and West Virginia would also be in the running). No doubt the Broncos will be a stiff test for BYU's defense, which has proven to be vulnerable at times, particularly with the pass. It is highly unlikely that the Y will shut down Boise State’s offense, but the team can do things to slow it.

One of the ways the Cougars can slow down BSU's offensive attack is by simply keeping it off the field. This tactic was extremely effective in BYU's opening win against Arizona. In that contest, the Cougar offense held onto the ball for nearly 38 minutes, which seriously limited the amount of possessions the Wildcats had and was a major factor in why Arizona was held to just 16 points.

Against Arizona, BYU controlled the time of possession by using up most of the play clock on each play, running the ball 47 times and completing easy short passes that kept the game clock rolling. Similar techniques should be employed against the Broncos to give the Cougar D fresh legs and less time on the field.

Give Jamaal Williams 24 carries or more and have Taysom Hill pass 26 times or less

The 2016 BYU offense has come up with a formula that has proven to be very effective: run, run some more and then run some more. In the Cougars’ four wins, they averaged a whopping 47 rushes compared to 26 passes a game. In wins, BYU is scoring 33 points against opponents. In contrast, in the Y's three losses, the offense has averaged just 31 runs and thrown the ball 41 times a contest. In losses, the Cougars are averaging 21.67 points a game.

In this case, the numbers don’t lie: BYU's offense is much better when it commits to the run. Specifically, the Cougars are strongest when they have Jamaal Williams touting the rock. The fifth-year senior has been a beast for the team out of Happy Valley this season. His production also seems to go up with the more carries he gets. In the five contests Williams has rushed the ball at least 24 times, he has gained a minimum of 162 yards in all but one of them. Simply put, the Y needs to give the speedster the ball out of the backfield as much as possible.

On the flip side, the Cougars' offense has been downright bad when it has had to rely solely on Taysom Hill’s arm. In BYU's three losses, Hill has thrown for just three touchdowns and six interceptions while posting a measly average QB efficiency rating of 103. He has been most effective this year when the ground game is rolling to set up the play action pass or run the ball himself. To set up either of those threats, the Cougars need to establish Williams’ presence.

The secondary needs to force some turnovers

To put it gently, BYU's defense has stunk at intervals against the pass this season. The Cougars rank 115th out of 128 teams in passing yards allowed per game. While the Y has played some decent to good college quarterbacks, this year’s D has made a few of them look like potential first-round NFL draft picks. The Cougars particularly struggled during a three-game stretch against UCLA, West Virginia and Toledo in which the secondary was torched for over 300 yards each contest. Against the Rockets, the passing defense gave up 505 yards.

In the last two games, BYU's pass defense has looked better. The Cougars held a hapless Michigan State offense to just 121 passing yards and then forced Mississippi State into two interceptions and a below 50 percent completion percentage on the game. Still, neither of those teams boasts a quarterback anywhere close to the Broncos’ Brett Rypien. The sophomore has thrown for 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions in six games. He is accurate and throws on time. He has also only been sacked six times, thus far, in 2016.

On paper, this contest very much looks like it has the feel of a “bend but don’t break” game for the Cougar secondary. It seems almost inevitable that they are going to give up a bunch of yards through the air by Rypien. However, if the Y's offense can keep him off the field for long stretches of time and the secondary can force Rypien into a few errant throws for interceptions, it may just well be enough to be the difference in a close game.

Prediction: BYU 28, Boise State 21


Dylan Cannon is a regular KSL.com contributor and can be reached at DylanCannon86@gmail.com or via Twitter @DylanCannon11.

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