Both Trump, Clinton 'have a lot to prove' to Utah voters in first debate


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SALT LAKE CITY — The first presidential debate isn't likely to affect Republican Donald Trump's lead in Utah over Democrat Hillary Clinton, but it may finally generate some enthusiasm about the race.

Neither Trump nor Clinton have been particularly popular with Utah voters, but seeing them side-by-side on the debate stage at Hofstra University in New York on Monday evening could change that.

"The candidates, in the state of Utah, have not had a tremendous amount of support," said Jason Perry, head of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics. "People are just not out proselytizing. … It's just not happening."

Perry said the 90-minute debate that begins at 7 p.m. MST and will be broadcast live on KSL-TV gives both Trump and Clinton a chance to win over Utah voters who have been reluctant to publicly back either candidate.

Polls have put Trump ahead of Clinton in Utah, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, but both candidates finished far behind the other contenders in March's presidential preference caucus voting.

"I think both of them have a lot to prove," Perry said.

For Trump, that means avoiding coming across as a bully and instead appearing presidential — "calm and competent," Perry said, able to discuss policy issues without giving critics of his temperament more ammunition.

Clinton, however, needs to be seen as "credible, open and honest" to counter concerns in Utah and elsewhere about her trustworthiness, he said, by connecting personally with the audience rather than touting her more extensive experience.

"They each need to adopt a little more of the other's persona," said LaVarr Webb, publisher of UtahPolicy.com and a Deseret News columnist, but Trump has the most to gain.

"Things aren't going to change that much for her," Webb said of the former first lady, senator and secretary of state. "Trump still has some upside with traditional Republicans trying to decide whether to vote for him or not."

If the billionaire businessman can show in the debate that he's presidential, "maybe he could reassure some traditional Republicans he's reasonable enough to vote for," Webb said.

Chuck Todd, NBC News political director and moderator of "Meet the Press," told KSL-TV that Trump has an opportunity in the debate to gain ground in Utah — or reinforce what may or may not be an accurate caricature from his opponent.

If the Trump who shows up on the debate stage is the same one Hillary Clinton has been portraying as saying "hateful and mean things about people," Todd said "the same issues that many Utahns have had with Trump's demeanor will continue."

But if the Republican nominee "instead presents himself as a steadier, calmer, temperamentally fit person for the job, I could see his numbers improving in Utah," Todd said.

Clinton has less ability to get a boost in Utah from the debate, "only because of the ideological leaning of many Utah voters, obviously being predisposed to wanting to support a Republican," Todd said.

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who was in Salt Lake City on Friday to rally support for Clinton including among U. students, told the Deseret News that his party's nominee can use the debate to reach Utah voters on an emotional level.

"Utah is the brain with the heart," the Democratic governor said, a state whose residents make decisions based on the facts but also have big hearts when it comes to immigration and other issues.

"That heart and mind, that's what Hillary is. She just has to let that come through. She's got to express her emotion and her passion but also show she's got the real facts and the figures," he said.

"Donald Trump really hasn't thought about any of this stuff in any depth. You should see that contrast," Hickenlooper said.

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He said he advised the Clinton campaign that she should just laugh if Trump tries to attack her on the debate stage.

Donald Trump Jr., Trump's son and one of his top surrogates, told the Deseret News and KSL-TV that his father is "going to be himself. He's going to speak and use common sense, which has been totally lacking in government."

Although Trump himself has said he has a "tremendous problem" in Utah, his son said voters here will see he's running on values Mormons and other Utahns share, including the importance of family.

But Trump Jr. wasn't ready to talk about his father's approach to the debate.

"We'll see where it goes. That's my father. I think he'll take each scenario as it's presented to him. There's not a 'I'm going to go in there and do this.' He isn't a robot," Trump Jr. said.

None of the third-party presidential candidates met the national support threshold to be included in what will be the first of four debates through October, including one between the vice presidential candidates.

Evan McMullin, a Republican from Utah running as an independent presidential candidate, said there's an effort underway to organize an "undercard" debate that would include Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein.

"I will debate anyone who wants to debate," McMullin said.

He said he plans to be in New York for the debate to try to make the case that voters have alternatives because "the two major party candidates are just so terrible."

The former CIA officer and adviser to U.S. House Republicans said being excluded from the debate makes it harder to reach voters. "The American people, in this of all elections, deserve better options."

Todd said the presidential debates are more likely than not "the end of the road for the third-party candidates," with voters seeing their only choice as between the candidates on stage.

Still, he said if both Trump and Clinton turn in performances viewed as negative on Monday, "then it could actually jump-start the third-party candidates" and strengthen the "none-of-the-above movement."

No matter what happens in the debate, though, Todd said Utahns are probably not going to be that excited about their major party choices.

"I don't think you're ever going to have an enthusiastic groundswell for either candidate in Utah," he said. "But you could see some Republicans quote-unquote 'coming home' to Trump if he has a subdued debate."

The University of Michigan's director of debate, Aaron Kall, said Utah voters are not likely to have forgotten a decision by Trump earlier this year to skip a scheduled GOP primary debate in Salt Lake City.

Trump's announcement that he would not debate Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in March resulted in the cancellation of the high-profile event that would have brought national and international media coverage to Utah.

"I think there were some hard feelings when he pulled out of the March debate in Salt Lake City," Kall said, likely part of the reason Trump got just 14 percent of the GOP caucus vote in Utah. "Voters held that against him."

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