It's now or never for BYU's chances at Power 5 conference


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PROVO — Sometime soon, probably before the leaves change colors and settle on the ground, BYU fans will experience one of two extreme emotions.

Jubilation or despair, with nothing in between. Those will be the only options.

All of BYU Nation is anxiously waiting to learn the future of the university’s athletic programs. Their fates rest on the decision of the 10 presidents who preside over the Big 12, which has decided to seriously consider expanding by at least two and maybe four teams.

BYU is a leading candidate to land the much coveted spot in the Power 5 conference. But in a manner of circular logic, nothing is for certain until it actually is decided.

For the Cougars, along with several other hopefuls, it could be now or never.

“This will be the last chair in the game of musical chairs,” said Chris Dufresne, the longtime college football columnist for the Los Angeles Times. “Once this final move is made, I think the door is closed for a long time. If you don’t get into one of the Power 5 (conferences) now, I think your fate is sealed for a long period of time, and that’s why so many teams are desperate to be one of these two or four teams.”

Unlike what some have reported, I refuse to say BYU is a lock to join the conference. However, based on numerous conversations, I will say the chances are good that the football team — and maybe all the other athletic programs, too — will become affiliated with the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian and all the schools that comprise the Big 12.

The case for BYU's inclusion

While no one is saying publicly which programs are in for sure, there seem to be small pieces of evidence that — if interpreted correctly — make a strong case for BYU’s inclusion. Some of the examples require a little imagination and hope, while others make it more clear cut.

Let’s look at Tom Holmoe’s recent public comments, which we could dare call posturing. For years, except for scheduled annual roundtable meetings with some media, the BYU athletic director has not answered questions on expansion. Even last spring during BYU’s appearance in the men’s volleyball final four, which was held at Penn State, Holmoe told a reporter that he wasn’t doing interviews.

Now, only days after the Big 12 announced expansion plans, Holmoe spoke about the subject to local reporters during a press conference on the new Beehive Classic in-state basketball tournament. He later talked to Berry Tramel, a sports columnist for the Daily Oklahoman and a longtime advocate of the Big 12 adding BYU.

Obviously, Holmoe is now comfortable going public on the Big 12 possibilities. With this in mind, it is not a stretch to conclude he likes BYU’s chances.

Holmoe told Tramel joining the conference “would give our kids the opportunity to shine. We will make a big difference in the Big 12. We will make the Big 12 proud.”

Two years ago, then-coach Bronco Mendenhall caught the BYU administration somewhat off guard by lobbying hard to an Austin, Texas, reporter for the football team’s inclusion into the Big 12. It marked the first time a BYU coach or administrator had openly expressed a desire to trade in being an independent for a Power 5 conference.

With an invitation possibly close to happening, Holmoe has stuff to say now.

“I live and breathe this every day,” he told Tramel. “I just so want this for our coaches, our teams. The difference between the Power 5 and the Group of Five didn't use to be as big as it is. That's what we've strived for.”

My guess is BYU knew well before the Big 12’s announcement on expansion that came on July 19. Six days before the announcement, I received a message that said expansion would be a hot topic on my morning radio show during the coming weeks.

One week later, another message indicated the process for expansion was going well for BYU. The steel trap is now leaking information.

National pundits also have jumped on board, with several writing or saying that BYU is the Big 12’s best option. Survey results have yielded the same information.

“I do think BYU is the safest bet right now,” said Dufresne, who thinks the Big 12 will add four teams, with BYU and Connecticut joining in football only.

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