Rudy Gobert scouting report: will he get an extension?


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SALT LAKE CITY — Next up, thanks to your votes, in our Jazz scouting report series is the Stifle Tower himself, Rudy Gobert.

Offense

No, Gobert's not an offensive superstar. But he has explicitly said that getting the ball on the offensive end makes him a better defensive player.

"Every player, when you have fun, it's always easier to play and when you get rewarded it's always more motivating on defense," Gobert said.

So given the rewards of having Gobert engaged defensively, Snyder makes an effort to get the ball in Gobert's hands on offense. He's actually third on the team in touches, just behind Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors. The problem is that Gobert struggles in the low-post, and only really flashes one move with any repeated success: a baseline spin move that defenses have learned by now. He only scored 16 points on his 24 post-up possessions all season long.

That means that keeping Gobert engaged requires you to play him at the top of the arc or at the elbows. There, though, he's not an offensive threat either. Yes, he made the first two jump shots of his career this year, but no defense is going to be worried about that at this point. We just finished a playoff series in which the Blazers consistently sagged 15 feet off of Andrew Bogut, he's made about 165 jumpers in his career.

The other thing Gobert could do when opponents give him that much space is to simply take advantage by driving the ball, and convert from within the paint. But Gobert hasn't shown efficiency at doing that yet either, shooting under 30 percent on his shots after drives.

Portland used that same sagging tactic against Gobert to pretty good success in the regular season. The only game the Jazz won against the Blazers this season was with Gobert injured, and finished as a -44 combined in the three games he did play.

During the regular season, not many teams use this tactic, and so you can maintain some semblance of spacing with Gobert on the floor. But in the playoffs, teams will copy the strategy and force Gobert to the bench unless he can figure out a way to make them pay for leaving him alone on offense.

Gobert does have a talent for rim runs: he's good at finishing at the rim with his size and length, often just vertically over people. He's stopped saluting this season after his big dunks, I don't know why. He's also a very good offensive rebounder, and gets a lot of his points on simple putbacks with his height.

Gobert's a skilled passer and sees the floor well from his perch, and makes some of the flashiest passes you'll ever see from a big man. Sometimes, he'll try to do too much and throw the ball away, but honestly, for a young player, you like to see the attempts, anyway.

He does pick up more turnovers than he should. He has a real problem in corralling passes: anything at chest level or below seems to be an adventure. Some of this, to be sure, is on his teammates, who could do a better job of delivering the ball in a better spot, but he's dropping balls too frequently everywhere else. He'll also often have the ball dislodged too easily, then complain about a foul after. Sure, a foul may have occurred, but stronger players probably would have retained possession of the ball anyway.

It'd be nice if Gobert was a better foul shooter. He shot only 56.9 percent this year from the stripe, a small drop in his percentage, and teams started to intentionally hack him at times.

Defense

Those offensive liabilities are usually worth it because Gobert is the very best rim protector in the league. His 9'9'' standing reach is unfathomably tall, and Gobert's fantastic at using it well. He dissuades opponents from taking shots anywhere close to the rim, and if they do, they rarely go in: opponents only shoot 41% near the basket when Gobert's around.

That's incredibly valuable: Nylon Calculus' rim protection stats estimate that Gobert saves the Jazz about 7 points per game as a result of his defensive prowess. ESPN's RPM gives him credit for about 4 points per game, top 10 in the league.

For most teams who play against the Jazz, running their offense against Gobert and Favors down low is the first priority on the scouting report, and teams run a lot of sets to get Gobert out of his comfort zone, bringing him out high in pick and rolls, playing only jump-shooting bigs, or making him switch onto smaller, quicker players. He doesn't foul too often either, a massive improvement from his rookie year.

Unlike most big centers, though, Gobert's pretty talented in space. Because of his ridiculous length, he can stay a few more inches away from guards, and still contest shots. He's good in defending the pick and roll, and usually stays pretty balanced in corralling guards coming off the screen. He's also a very good defender against straight spot-up shooters: when he's closing out, opponents get legitimately scared.

He's probably a top 10 defensive rebounder overall in the league, though he struggles with bigger, stronger centers who can push him out of position.

Outlook

Gobert's eligible for a contract extension this summer, and will be a restricted free agent next summer if an extension agreement isn't reached. Gobert's an incredibly valuable player: if he were on the open market this offseason, he'd get a max contract easily.

It's an interesting decision for both parties to see if they want to chase an extension now. From Gobert's point of view, waiting would mean a chance to get a max deal at a much higher cap next season, and might mean an extra $10-$15 million in his pocket over the course of the deal. On the other hand, a potential injury might ruin his big payday.

From the Jazz's point of view, waiting to sign Gobert until he's a restricted free agent has the additional advantage of keeping Gobert's cap hold ($5.3 million) low in the summer of 2017. That means they'd have lots of extra money to sign free agents that year. The downside, though, is that they'd have to pay more money later, and they may not get to negotiate the terms to their liking. See Gordon Hayward's option to opt-out next summer as an example of what can go wrong when other teams negotiate with the Jazz's restricted free agents.

In the end, my uninformed guess is that the Jazz will try to sign an extension, but Gobert will wait it out, and so an extension won't get done this summer. Gobert likes it here, even to the point of recruiting free agents to come to Utah, but Wesley Matthews' contract with Dallas last season proved that even players with devastating injuries can get huge dollars. In other words, Gobert's downside for waiting is pretty low.

Either way, because the Jazz can match, Gobert's going to be a part of the Jazz's future long-term. Beyond Quin Snyder, no other person in the organization sets the Jazz's identity more. A great deal of rest, plus some skill development this summer, would do Gobert well as he moves to the fourth year of his career.

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Andy Larsen

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