Breaking down Utah's bowl opportunities


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SALT LAKE CITY — A loss on Saturday kept Utah out of its first-ever Pac-12 Championship appearance after giving up a two-game division lead. With one game left in the regular season, Utah is now playing for a better bowl opportunity.

The following is a look at the various bowl game opportunities available to Utah should it win or lose this Saturday against Colorado.

Pac-12 bowl-affiliated games

The Pac-12 is affiliated with seven bowl games this year, including the Rose Bowl, which is sometimes a part of the College Football Playoff system (it is not this year). While there is no hard rule that the conference affiliates are required to stick to conference standings when selecting teams, the order of the bowl game selection is as follows: Rose Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Foster Farms Bowl, Sun Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl and the Cactus Bowl.

This year, nine teams are bowl eligible with the possibility of one more if Washington beats Washington State this weekend. Here's a look at some possibilities for Utah:

Rose Bowl (Pac-12 No. 1 vs. Big Ten)

Location: Rose Bowl — Pasadena, California
Date: Friday, Jan. 1, at 3 p.m.

Outlook: The Rose Bowl is simply not an option for Utah given its loss last week. Had Utah beat UCLA, the possibility would have been within reach, but alas.

Stanford is the favorite here, but if it loses in the Pac-12 Championship game, either UCLA or USC would represent the conference in the Rose Bowl. Oregon has an outside shot at the Rose Bowl if Stanford makes it into the College Football Playoff, but the probability is low.

Valero Alamo Bowl (Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12)

Location: Alamodome — San Antonio
Date: Saturday, Jan. 2, at 4:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Outlook: The Alamo Bowl has a wide range of teams to select from after the Rose Bowl makes its selection. Officials selecting for the Alamo Bowl are required to choose the next highest-ranked team in Pac-12 standings, but may pick a team within one loss of the highest-ranked team. So a Pac-12 team with a 7-2 or 6-3 conference record is in play here, providing Stanford is not available.

Should Stanford represent the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl, the Alamo Bowl would likely choose from five Pac-12 teams, including Oregon, Washington State, UCLA, USC and Utah. Of the five teams, Oregon, Washington State and Utah would have the best overall record. But Rick Hill of the Alamo Bowl committee told KSL.com national rankings and potential matchups have equal importance in its selection.

"We do want to position ourselves as the game having the top ranked (teams) over the course of our ranked teams. We had 11 vs. 15 last year, so that was attractive to us," Hill said. "We usually look for the Big 12 to be more of our ticket driver. The Pac-12, we like to have exciting offenses and excited fan bases. But it really depends on who we have."

Hill said Utah would be of interest to the bowl simply because it's never appeared in the Alamo Bowl before and would have a strong overall record. Transportation, too, becomes a factor as it would be easy for Utah fans to travel to San Antonio, whereas Washington State fans would have a harder time traveling to the bowl based on its location.

Oregon would seem to be the favorite for this bowl, but the Ducks have spent the last two postseasons in the state of Texas, which would give the Alamo Bowl pause, Hill said. However, it's all about matchups and who would play well against either Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor or TCU.

"We're just hoping that everybody finishes strong and then we'll see how the Big 12 ends up and what's the most compelling matchup we can put together," Hill said.

Holiday Bowl (Pac-12 No. 3 vs. Big Ten)

Location: Qualcomm Stadium — San Diego
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 30, at 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Outlook: The Holiday Bowl, too, has a wide range of teams to select from, including the five teams above in consideration for the Alamo Bowl. The selection process for the Holiday Bowl is similar in that they choose from the best team available and from those within one loss of that team.

Utah appears to have a higher probability to end up in the Holiday Bowl as opposed to the Alamo Bowl, simply based on the teams it's linked with in the pool of consideration. As long as Utah wins, it will have a strong conference and overall record and will remain a Top 25 team in the national rankings. Travel from Utah to San Diego would also not pose a problem for a Utah fan base.

USC represented the Pac-12 last season, which would seem to suggest the bowl committee would be willing to accept a different program. However, a program like UCLA would likely be a good fit in this bowl based on proximity should it win its last game of the regular season and then lose in the Pac-12 Championship to Stanford. But there are too many variables in play still to know whether a California school would be the best option for the Holiday Bowl.

Foster Farms Bowl (Pac-12 No. 4 vs. Big Ten)

Location: Levi's Stadium — Santa Clara, California
Date: Saturday, Dec. 26, at 7:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Outlook: The Foster Farms Bowl selects a team in similar fashion to that of the Alamo Bowl and the Holiday Bowl. They will get the best team available from the pool of consideration — those five teams mentioned above.

Once again, matchups and perceived value become a strength in this bowl game. If a ranked team is still available when the Foster Farms Bowl comes around to selecting, it's likely they'll be targeted to represent the Pac-12 against a Big Ten opponent.

The probability of Utah ending up in the Foster Farms Bowl is about as likely as that of the Holiday Bowl. The California teams would be an easy target here, too, but so would a team like Washington State. In fact, the Foster Farms Bowl would likely be the easiest bowl game for fans of Washington State to attend based on proximity. But transportation is not the only factor. Should the Cougars lose their final game to Washington, they'll likely drop from the national rankings and will be less of an attractive team, even though overall record would still be a solid 8-4.

Sun Bowl (Pac-12 No. 5 vs. ACC/Notre Dame)

Location: Sun Bowl Stadium — El Paso, Texas
Date: Saturday, Dec. 26, at 12 p.m. (CBS)

Outlook: Win or lose this weekend, Utah is a very attractive team to the Sun Bowl officials, particularly if Utah has a 9-3 record at the end of the season.

"Who doesn't want a 9-3 team that's not playing in one of the (New Year's Six) bowls?" Sun Bowl Executive Director Bernie Olivas told KSL.com. "Utah is very much in our picture if they're available. Having a 9-3 football team here is pretty good."

The Sun Bowl, though, is obligated to take the fifth best team from the Pac-12 in terms of conference standings. So even if Utah may have a higher overall season record than maybe another Pac-12 team in consideration, the Sun Bowl would be obligated to take the fifth-best team.

Olivas said the three teams they expect to consider from the ACC would be Pittsburgh, Miami and Louisville. Given Notre Dame's standing and position in the College Football Playoff rankings, the Irish will more than likely not fall to the Sun Bowl. Officials with the Sun Bowl will select an ACC opponent in conjunction with other ACC-affiliate bowls based on a pool of teams.

"We're looking for the best team available and somebody that attracts fans and attracts TV viewers," Olivas said. "We're going to get a good matchup. With the teams that are available to us so far, none of them are bad teams. We're going to have a pretty good matchup from both sides. So we're kinda excited."

Las Vegas Bowl (Pac-12 No. 6 vs. MWC No. 1/BYU)

Location: Sam Boyd Stadium — Las Vegas
Date: Saturday, Dec. 19, at 1:30 p.m. (ABC)

Outlook: The Las Vegas Bowl is required to select the sixth-best program from the Pac-12. The only flexibility the bowl committee would have is if two teams have the same conference record, and then the committee would choose its favorite.

Should Utah be available, the Las Vegas Bowl would welcome the Utes with open arms, particularly if Utah stays in the Top 25. Based on conference record leading up to the last game of the regular season, Utah would be the favorite for this bowl considering it's currently ranked sixth in conference standings. But USC and UCLA are ahead of Utah in the standings and one of them will lose this weekend, which would move Utah up to at least fifth should Utah win.

Utah made an appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl last year. Should Utah be the sixth-best team from the Pac-12, there's some wiggle room to move Utah out of the bowl game if the bowl officials or Utah doesn't want to have the same bowl again, according to Las Vegas Bowl Executive Director John Saccenti. But Saccenti said the bowl would have "zero issues" with Utah coming back.

"Anybody that was at that game last year saw it was a Utah home game; it was unbelievable. They showed up. They were at the stadium. They were loud. And they put on a great game," Saccenti told KSL.com. "It's not one of those situations where we go, ‘oh, wow, if we have Utah again we're screwed.' We're not even close to that. We'll be in a good position."

The potential matchup up of BYU vs. Utah would be a strong driver for the Las Vegas Bowl, but the stars would have to align perfectly for both teams to be available. This bowl seems to be the last resort for Utah and may not be the matchup Saccenti believes people will want to see.

"Utah could potentially be one of our teams. But does anybody want to see the BYU-Utah matchup? I'm not sure; I haven't had that conversation with Utah or BYU," he said. "There's that whole factor, too, where it becomes a regionalized game. We've kinda taken a wait and see approach to find out what it's going to look like and try to come up with the best matchup possible for the game."

Saccenti said the bowl will wait to determine whether BYU is the best fit in the Las Vegas Bowl. He said they know what they're going to get from the BYU fanbase, so it's a matter of potential matchups.

Cactus Bowl (Pac-12 No. 7 vs. Big 12)

Location: Chase Field — Phoenix
Date: Friday, Jan. 2, at 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Outlook: The Cactus Bowl is required to select the seventh-best team in the Pac-12, which is outside of Utah's realm of possibility given its strong conference record. Even with a loss to Colorado this weekend, Utah should only be the sixth-best team in relation to conference standings.

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