Becker, Biskupski virtually tied in mayoral race, poll shows


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SALT LAKE CITY — Mayor Ralph Becker and challenger Jackie Biskupski are locked in a virtual tie in the Salt Lake City mayoral race just three weeks before Election Day, according to a UtahPolicy.com poll released Tuesday.

Dan Jones & Associates asked 588 Salt Lake City voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today. Becker nabbed a slight lead with 43 percent of votes, with Biskupski close behind at 37 percent.

Seventeen percent remain undecided, and 3 percent said they plan to vote for someone else. The poll, conducted Oct. 5-10, has a 4 percent margin of error.

"It could go either way. It really could," pollster Dan Jones said. "They're both excellent candidates."

With more than 55 years of polling experience, Jones said this Salt Lake City mayoral race is one of the closest he's ever seen.

Becker, who trailed Biskupski by 15 percent in the August primary, called the poll's results a "remarkable turnaround."

"We've got ourselves a horse race," the mayor said. "I find it encouraging that we're basically even and that it seems to reflect voters are focusing more attention on the race and looking at what we have to offer. … I look forward to building off of that momentum."

Maryann Martindale, Biskupski's campaign spokeswoman, said the campaign is not surprised by the results, considering UtahPolicy.com's poll prior to the primary election had Becker leading by 3 percent.

Poll results

Who gets your vote if the election happened today?
Becker 43%
Biskupski 37%
Undecided 17%
Other 3%

"The Becker campaign came into this race with a $300,000 advantage, money they're able to spend on television advertising," Martindale said in a prepared statement, "yet according to this poll, they're still trying to catch up to our momentum. We're launching our own television ads this week, and we are confident that coupled with the work of our dedicated volunteers, staff and supporters, undecided voters will embrace Jackie's vision for change."

Biskupski put $10,000 toward 36 KSL-TV spots Monday, while Becker has spent more than $46,000 since early September on KSL-TV ads alone. The ad buys are rare moves in local elections because TV ads reach many ineligible voters: residents living outside of the city.

Martindale said the UtahPolicy.com poll does not reflect her campaign's internal polling, which shows a trajectory similar to the primary election.

Becker said his campaign has not conducted any internal polling since the primary election, but Tuesday's poll results are consistent with what he's been experiencing while visiting with residents.

"I'm simply trying to put my best foot forward," the mayor said. "I'm just going to continue to work hard and give voters a choice. I hope they continue to swing in my direction."

The poll also gauges likely voters by taking into account prospective voters with a high interest in voting and those who actually voted in the August primary election. Of the 271 respondents most likely to vote, Biskupski edges Becker 45 percent to 43 percent.

Becker, Biskupski virtually tied in mayoral race, poll shows

That's why Jones predicts — if the election were held today — Biskupski would win by 3 to 4 percentage points.

"Undecided voters usually go to the challenger," he said. "Right now, Becker has a lot of momentum, but will the ground war with (Biskupski) stop him from getting the majority?"

While Biskupski fares slightly better with likely voters, Jones said the fact that Becker is ahead among all possible registered voters shows that his odds hinge on high voter participation.

"The heavier the turnout, the more it favors Becker," he said.

According to Salt Lake County Clerk Sherrie Swensen, voter turnout at the primary election was 40 percent, but she expects at least 60 percent for the Nov. 3 election.

It's the first year Salt Lake City is conducting an all-vote-by-mail mayoral election to increase voter turnout. Ballots hit mailboxes last week, so some Salt Lake residents have already cast their votes.

However, Salt Lake City Recorder Cindi Mansell has said most ballots flood in the final week before Election Day.

Jones said his poll also revealed some interesting demographics. Biskupski has found a 47 percent to 41 percent favor with women, while men favor Becker 46 percent to 43 percent. Minorities also favor Biskupski over Becker, 46 percent to 38 percent.

However, Becker is ahead among Republicans, 57 percent to 29 percent, while Biskupski is favored by Democrats, 54 percent to 41 percent.

While the race is too close to call now, Jones said the next couple of weeks will be crucial as undecided voters watch debates to make their final decisions.

"The debates have been very healthy, and I think people are going to listen to the remaining debates to help make up their minds," he said.

UtahPolicy and KSL-TV are sponsoring a live TV debate at noon Wednesday.

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Katie McKellar

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