New study updates economic impact of Draper prison move

SALT LAKE CITY — A new look at the economic impact of moving the Utah State Prison from Draper found that developing the site could generate between $557 million and $2.7 billion, depending on what's built there.

"I think it just shines a light on how important it is that the property is developed in the right way," said House Majority Assistant Whip Brad Wilson, co-chairman of the Legislature's Prison Relocation Commission.

The Kaysville Republican said developing the nearly 700 acres at Point of the Mountain amounts to a "once in a lifetime opportunity that we don't want to squander."

The new numbers generated by the Legislative Fiscal Analyst's Office are in contrast to an estimate of more than $1.8 billion in "total output" once the site is fully developed that was part of a January 2014 study by a state consultant.

That study by Texas-based MGT of America also estimated the added value of the development to the economy at $1.2 billion, a total comparable to the new estimates from legislative staff.

Had the legislative staff looked at total output instead of using the more conservative model, their estimates reportedly would have increased to between $855 million and $4.5 billion.

Wilson sought a review of the consultant's estimate because he believed it was too low, assuming there would be housing and retail on the property rather than high-paying technology jobs in what's being called Utah's "Silicon Slopes" corridor.

But Rep. Merrill Nelson, R-Grantsville, saw the estimate as too high and asked legislative staff to take a closer look at what it would mean to build homes and shopping centers on the site.

Nelson said the staff came up with a new, $557 million estimate to replace the $1.8 billion suggested by the consultant by considering what projects would end up being built elsewhere in the state if the prison stayed put.

"I guess my conclusion is economic projections are volatile. They're speculative and uncertain," Nelson said. "We probably ought to not be making such an important decision based on speculative, long-term estimates."

Nelson represents one of the four communities where the commission is looking at land for the $550 million project. The commission is expected to recommend one of the sites to the Legislature before Oct. 1.

Besides Grantsville, the other sites under consideration are in Salt Lake City, west of Salt Lake City International Airport; and in Eagle Mountain and Fairfield in Utah County.

Each site has significant community opposition. Opponents of moving the prison have called for lawmakers to instead examine building a new facility on the Draper site, something that has not been done in depth.

Nelson asked legislative staff what it would cost to construct a new prison on the Point of the Mountain property, but was told the office was "not qualified to make such an estimate" without outside expertise.

The consultant recently took a "cursory" look at putting the prison on the grounds and said it would be too costly and cause security concerns. Opponents of moving the prison, however, have said it could be done in phases.

Building in Draper will be discussed at the commission's meeting Thursday, as part of a report from the consultant on recently concluded technical evaluations of each site that will include land acquisition and infrastructure costs.

"People keep asking the question," Wilson said. "When this information comes out, I think it will most likely definitively put to rest the issue of whether or not building it in Draper is in the best interest of the state."

He said once the Legislature chooses a site for the new prison, likely in a special session called by Gov. Gary Herbert, the focus will shift to ensuring the Draper site is properly developed.

"We should be taking the long view of what's in the best interests of the state," Wilson said, comparing the opportunities presented by the property to the redesign of I-15 and the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.

Draper Mayor Troy Walker agreed.

"I don't think the high-tech stuff is pie in the sky at all," Walker said. "This project is so unique. I think we're all going to have to sit down and put our heads together. … This is one of the most unique opportunities we have in the state."

The legislative review found that if the Draper site is transformed into a technology corridor, by 2029 it would bring more than 23,000 jobs to the state with a payroll of nearly $2.4 billion along with more than $178 million in state and local taxes.

Using the site for homes and stores would only account for just over 3,700 new jobs with a payroll of $315 million and taxes of just over $36 million once it was fully developed in 2029, according to the legislative review.

Legislative Fiscal Analyst Jonathon Ball cautioned in both reviews that they should not "be construed to suggest that moving the prison alone would cause the above commercial investments and associate economic returns."

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