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SALT LAKE CITY — With the NBA season coming to a close, teams are shifting their focus to the upcoming draft set for June 25. With only Golden State and Cleveland still in the playoffs, the remaining 28 teams are gathering data, watching film and bringing in players for workouts.
The Utah Jazz have invited players in for workouts since May 6. The Jazz have already worked out 36 players but none has been projected lottery picks. With many of the completed workouts comprising of players projected to go in the second round or undrafted, the Jazz may have not yet seen who they want with the 12th pick.
Let’s take a look back at the history of the 12th pick dating back to 1985 (the year the current lottery system was implemented) all the way up to 2011 draft, those who are finishing up their rookie contracts.
I went back and assessed every draft pick since 1985 and gave each draftee a number grade based on their individual accolades (MVP, All-NBA Teams, All-Star selections, etc.) throughout their careers. The numbers range from zero (a non-contributor) to five (hall of famer/future hall of famer). Then, after giving every player a grade, I calculated the average of all the picks and found some interesting results.
Obviously, the first pick is the most highly coveted of the lottery picks. The first pick received a grade of 3.69, the highest of all picks. Since 1985, there have been two hall of famers — Patrick Ewing ('85) and David Robinson ('87) — and five more future Hall of Famers in Shaquille O’Neal ('93), Allen Iverson ('96), Tim Duncan ('97), LeBron James ('03) and Dwight Howard (‘04). Other No. 1 picks who could become Hall of Famers include Derrick Rose ('08), Blake Griffin ('09), and Kyrie Irving ('11).
Picks 2-5 are regarded as the next best picks, while picks 6-14 are all historically pretty similar in value.
Upon further inspection and in-depth research, the 12th pick is historically the worst of the first 14 picks. The 12th pick received a grade of 0.96, the lowest of the first 19 picks and seventh-worst of all first-round draft picks.
| Value of first round draft picks from 1985-2011 | |
|---|---|
| Scale from 0-5 | |
| 1st: 3.69 | 16th: 1.26 |
| 2nd: 2.93 | 17th: 1.48 |
| 3rd: 2.81 | 18th: 1.59 |
| 4th: 3.07 | 19th: 1.41 |
| 5th: 3.04 | 20th: 0.69 |
| 6th: 1.52 | 21st: 1.52 |
| 7th: 2.07 | 22nd: 0.87 |
| 8th: 1.93 | 23rd: 1.19 |
| 9th: 2.11 | 24th: 1.50 |
| 10th: 2.26 | 25th: 0.67 |
| 11th: 1.52 | 26th: 1.17 |
| 12th: 0.96 | 27th: 0.78 |
| 13th: 1.70 | 28th: 0.89 |
| 14th: 1.04 | 29th: 0.42 |
| 15th: 1.41 | 30th: 1.00 |
Since 1985, Mookie Blaylock ('89) is the only player selected 12th overall to make an All-Star game. The New Jersey Nets, the team that drafted Blaylock, only had him for three seasons before they traded him to the Atlanta Hawks where he made his only All-Star game in his second season with the Hawks.
Other than Blaylock, the 12th pick has only produced role players. These include Muggsy Bogues ('87), Harvey Grant ('88), Austin Croshere ('97) and Vladimir Radmanovic ('01).
Players selected with the 12th pick who are still contributing in the league, although only as role players, include Nick Collison ('03), Thaddeus Young ('07), Jason Thompson ('08) and Gerald Henderson ('09). Steven Adams ('13) has been productive in his first two seasons since the Thunder selected him with the 12th pick.
The Jazz do have some recent history with the 12th pick. Alec Burks was selected by the Jazz with the 12th pick and has, in some ways, underperformed. Not all of it is his fault. He’s played behind players like C.J. Miles, Raja Bell, Josh Howard and Randy Foye, and dealt with injuries. The Jazz do see promise in Burks, as evidenced by his four-year contract worth $42 million.
The worst 12th pick since 1985 was when Toronto selected 7-foot-3 Aleksandar Radojevic ('99). Radojevic only played in 15 games (12 with the Jazz) during his injury-riddled career.
What makes the 12th pick so much worse is how many great players have been selected with the 13th pick. Jazz fans are very familiar with the 13th pick of 1985 draft: Karl Malone, the hall of famer, two-time MVP, and No. 2 on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, spent 18 seasons with the Jazz leading them to two finals appearances.
Malone isn’t even the best 13th pick since 1985. Kobe Bryant ('96) was selected 13th overall by the Charlotte Hornets before being traded on draft day to the Los Angeles Lakers. Bryant is a one-time MVP, two-time Finals MVP, five-time champion, and future hall of famer. Other notable 13th picks include Dale Davis ('91), Jalen Rose ('94), Corey Maggette ('99) and former Jazzman Richard Jefferson ('01).
If history is an indicator of what will come from the 12th pick, it’s certain that whoever they pick at 12 will be nothing more than an average role player. That’s not saying that getting a role player in the draft is a bad thing: all it shows is that Jazz fans should not be expecting an All-Star with this pick. The Jazz aren’t. But they are expecting to improve their team with this historically bad pick, whether that’s by selecting someone at 12, or trading down.
Historically, trading down is the smartest thing to do. Since 1985, picks 13-19 have all produced better players including Steve Nash ('96), Mark Jackson ('87), Shawn Kemp ('89), and Kawhi Leonard ('11).
The Jazz still have dozens of players to work out. There’s no saying what the Jazz will do. Historically, it doesn’t look too bright staying at the 12th pick.
Nathan Harker is a sports writing intern currently enrolled at Brigham Young University majoring in broadcast journalism. Nathan can be reached at nathan.harker32@gmail.com or via twitter @nharker3207.
