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SAN DIEGO — After a road loss at San Diego State, Utah State fans breathed a collective sigh of relief, muttering, “Phew, glad that one’s over with.”
Indeed, the Aggies and their fans were happy to leave San Diego as quickly as possible Tuesday night after a 60-45 loss to the sixth-ranked team in the country. The Aztecs led 35-22 at halftime, and didn’t look back as the game went on.
If anything, the past five games represent Utah State’s standing in the Mountain West conference — on par with every single school except the Big Three (San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV). San Diego State beat up the Aggies in the paint, outscoring Utah State 36-18. Also, the Aztecs took advantage of turnovers, outscoring Utah State 13-5.
San Diego State is an elite defensive team in the country, with third-place ranking in points allowed per game (56.6 points per game). The Aztecs aren’t one of the nation’s premier rebounding teams, leaving that to conference mate UNLV, which averages 27.3 rebounds per game. Still, San Diego State forces teams out of what they like to do and instead replaces it with substandard offensive attack for any team in the country.
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A problem that has plagued the Aggies consistently this season has been finding multiple players who can score against elite teams in the conference. Against UNLV, Utah State had three players score 43 of their 62 points. In the San Diego State game, both Jarred Shaw and Spencer Butterfield scored 10 points apiece to lead the Aggies, while the rest of the starting lineup combined for exactly five points. For the game, Utah State shot just 34 percent from the field.
Still, the Aggies are on par with most of their conference mates. For example, the fourth-place team in the Mountain West currently is Wyoming, which sits with a record of 8-5. At the present time, Utah State is 5-9, only three-and-a-half games behind the Cowboys. The goal in athletics is always winning, and losing to anyone detracts from that goal. However, the best way to analyze the Aggies this season is to look at their records against the teams from Wyoming on down in conference. Against those teams, the Aggies are 5-4, with the lone road win at Colorado State.
It’s important for the Aggies to look at the three remaining winnable games on their schedule and focus on those. Utah State hosts Fresno State in Logan this Saturday, then has road games at New Mexico and San Jose State before finishing the season at home against Wyoming. The Fresno State, San Jose State and Wyoming games are all winnable, despite Wyoming mauling the Aggies earlier this season, 74-57. If the Aggies can go 3-1 over their final three games, that will raise their conference record to 8-10, putting them in the conversation for the fifth, sixth or seventh seed in the postseason tourney.
Currently, Boise State sits in fifth place, while Fresno State sits in sixth and Nevada sits in seventh. Of the three, Fresno State’s schedule is by far the toughest, as the Bulldogs play Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State — all three probable losses. So, Utah State can jump Fresno with a 3-1 finish.
Boise State has games with UNLV and Wyoming, which are tossup games. It’s unlikely the Broncos will slip a full three games behind Utah State, but it could happen if the Broncos also were to lose on the road at Fresno. Meanwhile, Nevada has tough games remaining with UNLV and New Mexico.
So, the hopes of a suitable tournament seed aren’t yet lost for the Aggies. Still, the team will have to figure out its road woes, both offensively and defensively, soon, or else it will potentially sacrifice the remainder of the season.
