Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
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If there's been one constant in the BYU-San Diego State series, it's that the games are rarely competitive. In the 32 meetings between the two teams, the average margin of victory for the winner is 20 points. Only three times previously have the games been decided by a touchdown or less. In the last three games played in Provo, BYU has won by an average score of 43-14. If the Aztecs can lose by only 29 tomorrow, they'll have beaten the spread.
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In the wake of Utah's 13-10 victory over TCU last night, the Utes are two wins away from a second BCS bowl bid in the last five seasons--no questions asked. But, here's a question:
"If the Utes and Cougars both finish the season 11-1, which team will be ranked higher in the final BCS Standings?"
For both teams to finish 11-1, Utah would have to beat San Diego State and lose to BYU, and the Cougars would of course have to run the table.
So, is it possible that BYU could beat Utah and finish behind Utah in the BCS Standings?
The Utes' win over TCU (a team that throttled BYU) will further enhance the Utes' already strong computer quotient, so the question is whether a win over Utah will be enough for BYU to sufficiently narrow the computer chasm and leapfrog the Utes. I'm sure many think that an 11-1 BYU team would deserve to be the higher-ranked team, but I just don't know how the hard drives would interpret a BYU win over Utah--all I know is the Utes are ranked a full 10 spots ahead of BYU according to the computers, and that was before Utah beat a top 12 squad.
If BYU were to beat Utah, I'm sure many of the Harris and Coaches' pollsters would be inclined to put the Cougars ahead of the Utes, but just as many would reason that since the Utes lost to a highly-ranked BYU team, any assessment should not be overly punitive. Combine that reasoning with the Utes' current advantage in the computer rankings, and it's possible that the Utes have already done all they need to do to become the top Mountain West rep in the BCS discussion.
Allow me to stress that I'm not predicting anything, only noting that when you involve computers in the BCS equation, you really don't know how the data will be weighed and interpreted. And to this point in the season, the data has been heavily favoring the Utes. With wins over Air Force and Utah, BYU can narrow the gap--the only question is, would those wins be enough to close it and overtake the neighbors to the north?
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So, which non-BCS teams are likely to go BCS bowling, and could BYU still end up in the mix?
Well, first, we need to determine if one or two non-BCS spots will be available.
With the SEC and Big 12 assured of their "two-bid" status, only the Big Ten has a team currently in position to steal a second bid for its league--and that team is Ohio State (11th in the BCS Standings). Remember that a team has to be in the top 14 to eligible for BCS at-large status. If Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes will finish top 14, and will likely get a BCS bid. But, if OSU loses just one more game, the Buckeyes would be eliminated from consideration. There is an outside chance that Michigan State (currently 18th) could elevate to top 14 status with a win at Penn State to conclude the season, but one more Michigan State loss, combined with an aforementioned OSU loss, would make the Big Ten a one-bid league.
The Big Least and ACC will only qualify one team per, so that leaves the Pac-10. If USC runs the table, the only way the Pac-10 becomes a two-bid league is if Oregon State also runs the table and goes to the Rose Bowl. If the Beavers lose just one more game, or if USC loses one more game, the Pac-10 is a one bid league.
So...
if Ohio State, Michigan State and Oregon State/USC lose one more game, it appears two bids will be available to non-BCS teams--the highest-ranked non-BCS league champ, and an at-large non-BCS team in the top 14 of the final BCS Standings.
In that scenario, undefeated Utah and undefeated Boise State would both go to BCS bowl games. But, if one of those teams lose a game, then things get interesting.
A Boise State loss eliminates the Broncos from consideration. But, as mentioned, a loss wouldn't necessarily doom the Utes' chances. And, there's this: imagine that Boise State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Oregon State or USC all lose a game, AND BYU beats Utah to end the season. You could see BYU AND Utah go to the BCS (although a potentially undefeated Ball State team would be clamoring for inclusion). Far-fetched perhaps, but certainly not impossible.
For those who say BYU is not BCS-worthy, I hear you. But seeing as BYU is already ranked 15th, the Cougars would definitely be top 14 by running the table. And the bottom line is, if you're in the top 14, and no other eligible teams are available as at-large picks, the BCS HAS to take you. Remember also, that the highest-ranked non-BCS league champ that is also in the top 12 HAS to go. This year, there appear to be as many rules keeping non-BCS teams in as there are rules keeping them out.
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The audio archive for the BYU Basketball Cougars is up and running. Last night's exhibition game is now available for download or on-demand listening.
You can listen to part or all of BYU v. Concordia by going to this page and clicking the desired audio links.
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