Numbers Game

The NBA Draft Combine ended days ago, but some of the event's key metrics are only now being released and interpreted. Only time will tell how much the data will be either relied upon or disregarded. In Jimmer Fredette's case, some of his combine numbers have been eye-opening, for many observers.

Others, who have seen Fredette play for years, have to be less surprised that his performance ranked high in some notable categories.

*******

The combine's complete set of measurements for all players now includes speed, jumping and agility numbers, in addition to the anthropometric measurements that were released earlier.

Fredette's highlights:

Maximum vertical: 33" (t-9th among 11 measured point guards; 34th among 53 players measured)

Bench Press/reps of 185 lbs.: 14 (3rd among PGs; 13th overall)

Lane Agility: 10.42 (3rd among PGs; 3rd overall)

Modified Lane Agility: 5.11 (2nd among PGs; 2nd overall)

3/4 Court Sprint: 3.21 (10th among PGs; 25th overall)

When combining his ranking in all five above categories, Fredette ends up with a total ranking number of 77, which ranks 7th among point guards, and 12th among all players at the combine.

When combining his ranking in strength and agility alone (averaging lane and modified lane; no speed or jumping numbers), Fredette has a total ranking number of 15.5, which would be first among all players at the combine.

(Note: Thanks to Jason Peery for assistance with rankings in this spreadsheet)

*******

Fredette's jump and speed numbers are not particularly remarkable, while his quickness and strength results are extremely impressive.

Anyone who has watched Fredette play realizes he has a solid base and broad shoulders--both factors which help him in finishing in a variety of ways at the rim--but 14 reps of 185 lbs. is still an impressive tally for one of the shortest if not slightest players at the combine.

By the way, San Diego State's strength and conditioning coach had to be cringing a bit when the numbers came out. The Aztecs' two forwards at the combine, Kawhi Leonard (6'7", 227) and Malcolm Thomas (6'9", 223), each did only three bench press reps--tied for 46th out of 53 players who lifted. Leonard's max vertical of 32" measured less than Fredette and ranked 41st overall. A player who thrives on athleticism more than shooting, Leonard had a sub-par showing in Chicago, but what it will mean on draft night is debatable. Just as Fredette's jump numbers don't make him any less of an athlete, Leonard has skills that may not be reflected in testing.

As for Fredette's showing in the agility drills, I suspected he would show well there, since he has trained for years with speed/agility/conditioning guru Lee Taft, also Fredette's uncle. Jimmer was prepared for what he would face in Chicago, and came through with flying colors around the cones.

*******

Here are the shooting numbers from the combine; you will see that Fredette ranked first in college 3pfg percentage, tied for second in NBA 3pfg percentage, and ranked 9th among 47 players in overall combined shooting percentage.

*******

All in all, the latest numbers confirm what his closest observers and supporters have known for a while now: in addition to being a superb shooter and scorer, Fredette has athletic gifts that go beyond the boxscore.

He is not the fastest runner or highest leaper, but he is strong, agile and can make every shot expected of him in the NBA. Watching him continue down the path toward draft night will be compelling stuff.

*******

I spoke briefly with Fredette's PR rep at the Octagon agency this morning, and while the only confirmed team workout is with the Knicks on June 2nd, he alluded to the other workouts that will soon be scheduled, with Jimmer's camp taking a "strategic" approach to the workout itinerary. It has been previously reported that Fredete will also work out for the Jazz, Suns, Rockets, Pacers and Blazers.

Certainly the Jazz will be one of the teams to bring Jimmer in, and in the past, the Jazz have notified the media who it is they are working out and made those players available to reporters. So, while some teams are a little more cloak-and-dagger, the Jazz are very up front, and we expect to see Jimmer back in Salt Lake City sometime soon.

*******

I came across some Fredette-related comments from NBA personnel that may be a little dated, but are still interesting nonetheless.

NBA.com writer David Aldridge recently did a breakdown of the top point guards in the draft mix, and here's what was said in the section on Fredette:

--

"Then there's Fredette, the BYU senior who led the nation in scoring and who put up 52 in the Mountain West semifinal. There is no question about Fredette's ability to put the ball in the basket. His range is unlimited and his ability to create his own shot will make him dangerous, no matter who's guarding him. He's much better than the likes of Travis Diener and Bryce Drew, other scoring guards who've been compared to him.

"Not only can he shoot it, he can get it off under duress," one general manager said of Fredette. "He splits traps. Nice assist totals. He's got vision. He's a very productive player. You can make the argument that he's a high volume shooter, but I would be surprised if he just washes away. I'm not saying he's a star, a max player, but I think he'll find a niche in the league and be successful, like Kyle Korver and J.J. Redick. He'll be on the ball. You could slide him over. Especially if he gets on a good team and he's with guys who draw double teams in the frontcourt. He's going to create some dilemmas for teams."

Said a Central Division man: "I don't know if he's good enough to go (in the Lottery) or not. But having said that, he could play for us right now, because he could score. He's probably going to be a guard that comes off the bench and makes things happen."

Fredette's issue is defense. He doesn't play any. It's not just that he's garden variety bad; he's historically bad, according to a lot of scouts.

"I think he's almost invisible defensively," one personnel director said. "I watched Jackson Emery (Fredette's backcourt mate at BYU) out there and he's guarding like one and a half guys. I don't think I've ever seen (Fredette) bend his knees at the defensive end."

Some say that Fredette's defensive liabilities are a product of his importance to BYU, that the Cougars can't afford to have him get in foul trouble, so they encourage him to be passive on defense and not take chances. Others disagree.

"To me, that's kind of a copout," the personnel director said. "How many point guards really get in foul trouble in the course of a game? I just don't think he has any desire to defend. He can be a backup. He has to play a team that gives him some rope to take the kind of shots he takes. If you look at the starting point guards in our league, he has just no chance at defending any of them."

Said a veteran scout: "I don't see Fredette being a key part at our level. I see him like Eddie House, basically. You're a point guard; you have to be able to guard somebody."

--

*******