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The longer the Pac-10 has to wait for the Big 12's "big five" to get together and hop on board Larry Scott's Expansion Express, you might think the better it looks for the University of Utah, and perhaps the worse for BYU. But, then there's the "Jayhawk scenario," which doesn't look good for the Cougars or the Utes.
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Reports out of Texas are that the Pac-10's targeted quintet of Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is currently a quartet, with A&M exploring instead a move to the SEC.
Should only those four Texas/Oklahoma teams decide to move west and join Colorado in the expanded Pac-10, that leaves a hole for a 16th team, and that team could conceivably be Utah. Should the Big 12 unexpectedly stay together (which appears increasingly unlikely), Utah would appear poised to be the Pac-10's 12 team. That is, unless Scott really means what he says when he said: "I'd say that (having an 11-team conference) is a possibility." Either way, the Utes are still on the periphery of the expansion mix, and they have Texas A&M's independent spirit/bruised ego to thank, for the time being.
It could be that the Aggies are just looking for a little attention with the Pac-10's understandable focus on the Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners (who have plegded to remain together), but should A&M hold up the Pac-10's best-laid plans, the fly in Utah's ointment could be Kansas--the one "big name" legacy program representing the true odd man out in the expansion conversation. KU reps are hitting the airwaves, trying to position Kansas as a potential replacement for TAMU, should the Aggies not join their Texas brethren in heading west.
Among the relevant questions is which would Larry Scott prefer: a Kansas program that expands the league footprint eastward and helps deliver the nation's #31 TV market in Kansas City, or a second Rocky Mountain team in Utah that helps deliver Salt Lake City's 35th ranked TV market? Less empirical, but as important is the simple "Blink"-like query: if you were an expansion-minded conference commissioner looking to make a super-conference splash, and you were choosing between Kansas and Utah, which school would be more appealing?
A newspaper report out of Kansas City cites "a source close to the K-State athletic department saying the Pac-10 could be interested in both Kansas and Kansas State in the scenario that it misses out on some of the teams it is reportedly courting."
At the same time, there is speculation that should the two Kansas schools, Iowa State and Missouri be left (along with Baylor) to fend for themselves, those four programs could find a home in an expanded Big East. Suffice it say Kansas City star columnist Sam Mellinger prefers the Kansas teams end up in the Big East as opposed to the Mountain West. Excerpts from his column entitled "Is This the Worst Day in Kansas City Sports History?:
"Now we're left with something closer to bupkis, and the hope that bupkis doesn't turn into 'Mountain West.'"
"There is talk of Kansas getting a golden ticket to the Pac-10, or joining K-State in the Big East, but for now those are long shots on the good end, with Mountain West obscurity on the bad end."
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In a New York Times article today, an anonymous Big 12 AD is quoted as saying he thinks the Pac-10 will get the five Big 12 teams it wants in the end: "It sounds like by next week this Texas and Pac-10 thing will come together...it's probably a little more complicated and sensitive than we realize, as we didn't know how many problems would be associated with this."
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The moods and machinations swing day-to-day, but it's possible that when the expansion carousel stops spinning, the Mountain West Conference could be left with the slimmest of pickings as it ponders whether to add programs to its roster. Assuming a complete collapse of the Big 12, could the MWC win a figurative bidding war with the Big East for schools like Kansas or Kansas State, Missouri and Iowa State? Would adding Baylor and giving TCU a Texas playing partner make sense? Is adding Boise State as important as it would have been a week ago?
These questions and many others will be easier to answer once we find out whether Texas A&M is "all in" in the Pac-10's high-stakes expansion poker game.
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