SN on BYU: Middle-of-the-Pack in the MWC...plus the QB Battle

I've been leafing through the Sporting News 2010 College Football preview magazine, and I note that the writers pick BYU to finish 4th in the Mountain West Conference, behind TCU, Utah and Air Force.

Under Bronco Mendenhall, here are BYU's conference finishes:

2005: t-2nd

2006: 1st

2007: 1st

2008: 3rd

2009: 2nd

The last time BYU finished as low as 4th in its league was in 2003, when the Cougars ended up in a 3-4 MWC logjam as part of a 4-8 overall record--a record that was BYU's worst since 1970.

In the last 34 seasons, BYU has finished out of the top three in its conference only three times: in 1997 (6-5, 5th WAC Mtn.), 2002 (5-7, 7th MWC), and 2003 (above).

I understand observers' skepticism considering BYU's personnel losses from last season, but consider:

Bronco Mendenhall has the fourth best active win percentage in the FBS (min. five seasons; behind only Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops and Mark Richt)

BYU is coming off of four consecutive double-digit win seasons for the first time in school history.

Only four FBS teams have won more than BYU over the last four seasons.

Since 2006, Mendenhall's Cougars are 29-3 in MWC games (5-3 v. TCU and Utah; 24-0 v. the rest of the league).

So, go ahead and pick BYU 4th; I'll say the program has proven to be in good enough enough shape to finish top three in 2010.

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More from the SN folks:

OL Matt Reynolds and S Andrew Rich are named to the all-MWC team.

One of the four "Fearless Forecasts" is that BYU's streak of five straight Las Vegas Bowls will come to an end as the Cougars play in the Poinsettia Bowl. Then, on BYU's team page, the Cougars are projected to play in the Independence Bowl. It's evidently going to be a busy few days in late December for the Cougars.

BYU is listed as the MWC team "Descending."

Bronco Mendenhall is named as the league's "Best Coach," but not good enough to keep his team from "descending," apparently.

BYU's recruiting class is listed as coming in second to Utah.

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I am heading off on vacation starting next week, but as a parting shot, I have a few thoughts on the impending BYU quarterback competition--food for thought during the idle summer months:

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As the only QB to have taken a snap for BYU, it's a given that Riley Nelson has an advantage relative to his knowledge of the system and ability to mentor the other QBs as the lone true Cougar veteran (although Lark and Munns have both red-shirted). I don't see this advantage as an "inside track" to the starter's job, however.

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Nelson is as much a runner as he is a thrower, and in the past, Bronco Mendenhall has made no secret of the fact that he thinks quarterbacks who run as part of an offensive system are less likely to survive the season. While Nelson's running ability could be seen as a tactical asset, I get the sense that Bronco wants QB runs to be the exception and not the rule.

As such, BYU is probably still looking for the best passer, barring a change in offensive philosophy, and I don't see Robert Anae going that route--except for a change of pace. Anae wants a QB who can make all the throws--consistently, quickly and accurately; I wouldn't call him a huge fan of the "freelance." If QBs coach Brandon Doman were the offensive coordinator, you might see something different and more of a tilt toward a multi-tasking dual threat behind center.

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The supposition that the absence of Harvey Unga favors the more experienced, mobile QB may have some merit, but with a veteran-laden offensive line in front of him, the new QB shouldn't be running for his life, with or without a seasoned back alongside. Note that in 2007, with freshman RB Harvey Unga, a new starting QB Max Hall, but an offensive line returning four starters in D. Reynolds, Feinga, Aulai and Bright, BYU allowed 20 sacks. Last season with junior RB Unga, senior QB Max Hall, but an offensive line returning only one starter, BYU allowed 23 sacks. My point is, four starters back on the offensive line should mean more to the new QB than whether it's a senior or a freshman RB picking up blocks.

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Spring ball stats:

Jake Heaps 62-of-105 for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns

Riley Nelson 29-of-51 for 389 yards and 5 touchdowns

James Lark 27-of-46 for 253 yards and no touchdowns

Combine those numbers with the feedback from offseason throwing sessions, and Heaps is proving to be a favorite of the receivers, and the best pure passer.

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Nelson has thrown only ten passes in game action over the last three years. Heaps has thrown exactly 1,000 passes in game action over the same time period. Granted, Heaps was only playing high school ball, but he was playing it at a high level in Washington's highest state classification, winning three straight state championships. Heaps' high school numbers:

618/1,000, 9,295 yards, 114 TDs, 18 INT; 30 rushing TDs; record: 40-2.

Heaps has had three straight seasons and 42 starts worth of taking snaps, reading defenses and making throws in competition, albeit at a level not on a par with the FBS. Nelson is a year removed from a mission with little recent game action under his belt. James Lark has yet to play since his mission. So, who is the most "game-ready?"

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Before Bronco Mendenhall ever coached a game at BYU, he offered a scholarship to an instate quarterback, and he chose to offer Pine View's James Lark over Logan's Riley Nelson, the summer before Lark's senior season. Nelson then played his senior season and went on to choose between Utah and Utah State, eventually picking the Aggies. As you all know, Nelson then approached BYU about transferring after his LDS mission.

In 2006, while Nelson was playing for the Ags and Lark was red-shirting in Provo, BYU was watching film of a 9th grader named Jake Heaps. The next year, he was attending BYU's summer high school camp. For as long as is allowed by regulation, BYU has invested a great deal of time and effort into landing arguably the biggest recruit in school history--a recruit good enough to win MVP honors at national all-star camps and a #1 rating by many recruiting services. I don't think you bring in that kind of talent without expecting him to be good enough to earn the starting job.

After spring ball, Mendenhall said:"I think it's becoming apparent to everyone Jake (Heaps) is really a natural, poised pocket passer and makes very good decisions...He's a great young man, an excellent leader... one of the brightest prospects at quarterback that I've seen. You forget that he's still a high school senior...he's everything I thought he would be and we're very fortunate that he's here."

Mendenhall, on the possibility of starting Heaps as a freshman: "With any other player other than (Heaps), I'm not sure I could be even close to being comfortable. But I've been pleasantly surprised. Jake is an exceptional young man, a very good talent. He's picked up and grasped our offense very well and moved our football team this spring. So I'm further along toward my comfort than I thought I would be. That's making me rest a little bit easier."

To say that Heaps isn't seen as a preferred talent by the BYU coaches is to ignore the historical, anecdotal and statistical evidence.

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I am a fan of author/sociologist Malcolm Gladwell, and I am going to incorporate his "Blink" theory in stating that it doesn't take long to realize that Jake Heaps is a special player and the best quarterback currently in the BYU program. Whether you choose to use Gladwell's "thin slice" observations or a thicker slice of perspective, Heaps has all of the inherent qualities you want in a college quarterback. His athletic ability, poise, leadership skills, winning background and pro potential all indicate he can be the starter when BYU opens the season September 4th.

Bronco Mendenhall often warns of the danger of giving certain young players too much, too soon in what I call this "era of entitlement." At the same time, Heaps is not your typical young player, and many of the qualities that might undermine a freshman starter do not appear to be part of Heaps' makeup.

Some might say the "safe" thing to do would be to start the experienced quarterback and let Riley Nelson's running ability give the Huskies something to worry about. However, I anticipate that Mendenhall and Anae will simply start the best quarterback who gives BYU the best chance to win against Washington, and if it's Nelson, that means he will have had a heck of a summer. Nelson, after all, is a great athlete in his own right, and is capable of making the competition interesting.

When it comes time for the decision to made, I expect that BYU's starting quarterback will be Jake Heaps. We're only about three months away from finding out whether that will indeed be the case.

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As mentioned above, I will be on vacation starting later today, until June 10th. However, because I don't know how to totally stop working and stop writing, I will inevitably make a posting or two between now and then--I can't seem to help myself.

If you go a few days without hearing from me, you'll know why, and if/when you do see a blog entry, you'll know I wrote it while breaking away from the sun and the surf somewhere very far away.

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