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SALT LAKE CITY — The NBA Draft is now just two weeks away. The Jazz are bringing prospects in a flurry to get ready and slowly the draft might be taking shape.
What makes a good draft and what makes a bad draft? The simple answer is can they produce, but there is also a bit of luck involved with players falling into place. A true dream scenario is finding the cornerstones for years to come. A nightmare probably includes passing on one.
The Jazz have had good drafts and bad. There are a lot of people critical of drafting Gordon Hayward over Paul George, and it could be for good reason, but at least they got Hayward instead of Edpe Udoh, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson or Al-Farouq Aminu — all went before Hayward.
In 2011 Kenneth Faried and Kawhi Leonard went after Enes Kanter and Alec Burks. However, Derrick Williams went before Kanter and the dynamic duo of Jan Vesely and Bismack Biyombo went before Burks.
There will be a few scenarios for the dream and the nightmare. The reason behind this is: If Sam Bowie turns into Hakeem Olajuwon no one blames the Trail Blazers for drafting him over Michael Jordan. No one talks about the Rockets screwing up, just the Blazers, even though they both passed on arguably the greatest ever to play.
In that same draft Sam Perkins went before Charles Barkley. Leon Wood went before John Stockton, actually 15 teams passed on Stockton. There were three Hall-of-Fame players — Olajuwon, Jordan and Barkley — but nine players never made an All-Star appearance.
The dream scenarios for the Jazz could come in any different forms. It could include players sliding, or just fulfilling potential. The nightmare scenarios aren't necessarily a reflection on the player or pick, but a look at what the worst outcome could be.
There are no best or worst scenarios, just different dreams and nightmares that could come from this draft.
Dream Scenario 1: The slide
In this scenario the players the Jazz really like just so happen to tumble to them. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. One player makes a team reach and suddenly the Jazz have three great players in a bad draft.
14:C.J. McCollum tumbles draft day. The Kings do their normal King thing and take Shabazz Muhammad instead of Trey Burke. The Pistons grab Burke at 8, the Wolves take Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at 9. The Blazers reach for Dario Saric at 10 for their wing. The 76ers take Cody Zeller, then the Thunder take Steven Adams. The Mavericks take Michael Carter-Williams. McCollum gets swooped up by the Jazz to add a shooter to the Jazz that makes them deadly for years. The young point grows with the "Core Four" and the offense comes together with everyone able to stretch the floor and make plays.
21:Rudy Gobert scares teams with his lack of offense and he falls to the Jazz. The 7-2 big, establishes himself as the third big as he Kanter and Favors run over the league forming one of the best defenses around.
46:Nate Wolters slides down and the Jazz get their instant offense off the bench. He is the knock-down shooter the Jazz need in any clutch situation and his height allows him to play multiple positions.
These three, along with the "Core Four" for a young and deadly group that pushes in the next two years for a Western Conference Title, and maybe more.
Nightmare scenario 1: The reach
This is the scenarios where the Jazz reach for talent believing their player will still be there. They take talent over production and nothing works out the way they planned. This is based on the Jazz looking for a superstar in a draft without one.
14: The Jazz believe Rudy Gobert is really the next big thing and grab him at 14. They feel like either Dennis Schröder or Shane Larkin will be there at their next pick. Gobert never turns out to become anything more than just a big body and Larkin and Schröder get snatched up in the next seven picks. 21: Believing there are no point guards worth the pick the Jazz take Sergey Karasev. The 19-year-old Russian turns out to be just a European player who doesn't athletic enough to guard or attack, his shooting never fully develops and he just doesn't fit the Jazz system. The Jazz cut their losses and he gets signed by the Celtics who make a title run with him and Schröder in 2020.
46: Chips don't fall their way and the Jazz decide Peyton Siva is worth their last pick. He has the pedigree as a winner, but teams were passing on him for a reason. He is too short to play and his athleticism can't make up for it. He spends a few years as a back up for the Jazz, but never fully makes the transition to a starter. Side note: He becomes the head coach for the Lakers in 2025.
Dream Scenario 2: It works out
In this scenario nothing crazy happens, there are no shocks, the players fall where they are supposed to and the Jazz scouting does their job to get the right players.
14:Shane Larkin is their guy at 14, they pull the trigger and Larkin becomes the next great Jazz guard. The only thing that stopped him from being a top pick was his size and he uses his amazing athletic ability to overcome that. The 5-11 guard from Miami becomes the missing piece. He can shoot and set up his teammates so everyone stays happy. He follows in his father's footsteps and becomes a part of the community and leaves a legacy behind. 21:Kelly Olynyk becomes the third big man for the Jazz and gives them a deadly stretch four. He slips a little to the Jazz because he is older and isn't overly athletic, but fits in the Jazz's system with their two young big men. He becomes the Mehmet Okur for the team with his clutch shooting when the Jazz need it along with the height to play when foul trouble comes along. He isn't spectacular, but become a glue guy that helps the team stay together.
46:Myck Kabongo becomes the second point guard taken for the Jazz. They feel that he can solidify the backup role and push Larkin to be better. He is able to mature into what people thought he could be from high school. He splits time with Larkin for a few years then the Jazz realize they can't keep him and get a nice trade value in four years.
Nightmare Scenario 2: Best player available
This scenario might end up producing good players, but in the end it will be about how they still didn't fill positions of need with their picks. They end up missing out on all the point guards in the first round.
14:Shabazz Muhammad falls into the lap of the Jazz and they stick to their board and take the player who was once a top-3 pick. The 6-6 small forward comes in and can't find a spot on the team. He can't beat out Hayward or Burks on the wing and Ty Corbin wants DeMarre Carroll coming off the bench for energy. He becomes a locker room problem and doesn't get his first contract renewed. 21:Mason Plumlee is their top man at 21 and so they make the pick. He comes in and plays well in the short bursts that he gets on the court, but can't stay on the court for any extended period of time. His style doesn't complement Favors or Kanter and he slowly finds his time shrinking. He will stay with the Jazz for years, but won't be the contributor they hoped for.
46:Lorenzo Brown become the point guard to fill the need and is their best available. He shows promise and is given the keys to the team right away, but never develops and outside shot. Teams eventually just stop guarding him and he becomes a liability on offense as every team just picks on the passing lanes. He is off the team in three years.
Dream/Nightmare Scenario 3: Potential
In this scenario the Jazz decide they look at potential and go after it. This is both the dream and nightmare because it could change the Jazz forever either way.
14:Giannis Adetokounmpo is an 18-year-old from Greece who might be the biggest boom/bust player in the draft. He is a 6-9 small forward, who might still grow with a 7-2 wingspan, and played every position for his team in Greece. He could be a superstar in a draft without any.
His skills are unique and interesting. He works hard and will do whatever is needed. He also is missing a jump shot and strength. He isn't a great athlete and is still new to the game.
The dream scenario would be him growing to 6-11 and getting even an above average jump shot and getting more explosive. The nightmare is that he become Marvin Williams without the defense or attitude. He will show flashes of brilliance just to annoy fans who rarely see it all.
21:Dennis Schröder falls and he become everything that people have talked about at the Nike Hoops Summit. The Rajon Rondo comparisons come to fruition and he is the next great point guard for the Jazz. He leads the league in assists for years and finishes second in career assists behind John Stockton. The nightmare is that there was a reason no one knew about Schröder before he hit the Hoops Summit. His workouts were more telling than his one big game and he just can't get anything going. The Jazz give him a second big contract hoping it pans out and he just can't crack the starting lineup. Schröder heads back overseas never to be heard from again.
46:Kenny Kadji is the last pick and continues the long line of second-round sleepers for the Jazz. Kadji is a pure stretch four who, along with Kanter and Favors, abuses defenses with an inside out game allowing Schröder to penetrate and dish for a lot of easy buckets.
Or he shows why he stayed in Miami for four years. He is able to shoot, but can't guard anybody down low and won't rebound. His up-and-down streaks keep trending down, and he becomes a problem in the locker room.
There is a very real chance none of this will happen, but looking at some mock drafts and trying to piece together reports these all could be a very real possibility. This isn't meant to be a slight on any player, each scenario could ultimately flip-flop. Just thoughts about how great or poorly a team can draft depending on how the chips fall.