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PROVO — For as cold as last week's game was, this week might be that wet. There is an 81 percent chance of rain in San Jose Saturday.
Just remember how beautiful Atlanta was.
This is an interesting game this week. San Jose is a worthy opponent with many challenges to deal with. My guess is that most people have heard about the record (8-2) and how close they played Stanford at the start of the season, etc, etc., but here's the deal: They are very good on offense and very solid on defense.
BYU has continued to improve each week and will need to continue to play at that same level or better to get a win this week. I think they will and I believe playing some pretty good athletes earlier this year will be the experience they need to meet the challenge in San Jose.
Let's take a look at what the Cougs are up against this week.
#1 OBJECTIVE
Davis Fales is completing 72.4 percent of his passes this year. That is crazy good, fourth best in the nation. BYU needs to get him out of a rhythm early and make him feel uncomfortable. This might be hard to do. San Jose likes the quick release pass for short yardage that leads to high completion percentages. BYU is okay with keeping everything short and will give up that short pass.
It seems like both teams might get what they like, but San Jose will be gaining yards and first downs as they go. BYU does want to manage points, so some where in the drive, they will have to stop the short stuff, or invite the long throw and break it up.
This will be an interesting strategy early in the game. BYU is dang good at stopping teams, San Jose is second in the nation in pass efficiency. I don't expect a similar game like we saw against Oregon State, but San Jose has a couple very good wide receivers and a big, good tight end that caused BYU trouble last year. There are a few players for BYU to keep a close eye on.
Utah State made 13 sacks in their game with San Jose, but the Spartans still threw for 467 yards. They are better throwing the ball than running it. Even though San Jose will be successful completing short passes, that still needs to be the strategy for BYU to give up the easy throws and prevent the long balls over their heads.
#2 OBJECTIVE
Even though San Jose is scoring about 35 points per game, I think BYU can keep them around their goal of giving up fewer than 24 points. If that is a possibility, then of course BYU needs to score at least their average this season of about 28 points a game. The offense continues to improve; the running game is now solid with Jamaal Williams increased number of carries a game. He has become a real weapon. The offensive line gets a couple previous starters back in uniform and probably ready to play. The depth alone will be a help.
It appears that Riley Nelson feels healthy and has been very productive completing over 60 percent of his passes in the last four games and five TD's in the last three games. Third down conversions have been over 44 percent in the last six games, all good stuff. San Jose is good at getting teams off the field, giving up just 31 percent success on third downs. BYU has been taking more risks this year on fourth down and has kept drives alive that led to touchdowns against Georgia Tech. BYU has made good on fourth down 70 percent of the time.
Here's what I'm saying if you are missing what I'm trying to get across. I think BYU has to win this game on offense this week and score enough points to win. There is no safety with a good lead. San Diego was up a bunch and lost. USU was way ahead and had to keep scoring to put it out of reach. I am impressed with how San Jose doesn't quit and plays hard to the end. It will be a good test.
#3 OBJECTIVE
Since San Jose plays good offense, BYU must play clean and avoid any turnovers. They also can't give up any big plays like a kickoff return. San Jose has returned two kickoff returns for TD's this year. San Diego ran 30 more plays than San Jose, had the ball 16 more minutes, but lost by a score of 38-34; primarily because of a return and quick scores.
The defense is going to work to limit points, BYU must be good in all the other parts of the game to avoid giving up easy scores to San Jose. If they can again get some big plays to help BYU get easy points, all the better. The BYU bounce is starting to come back to the Cougars. That is such a plus, just look at the Utah game for proof.
There will probably be more BYU fans at the game than San Jose fans. San Jose is the second worst home attendance in the FBS division. They draw just over 9,000 fans a game at home. The stadium holds just over 30,000. BYU often has more than 9,000 fans attend games on the road. The fan support can make a difference in a close game, whoop it up Cougs.
QUICK HITS
- My first game as a Cougar was at San Jose. I was a redshirt and as we ran on the field, I stepped on Phil Odle's foot and took him down. I though that would be my last game as a Cougar.
- I also went to San Jose in 1968, the last time BYU was there. There were more policemen in the stands than fans. We had a bomb scare at 3 a.m. at the hotel. We traveled with police escorts everywhere. Their protests against the Church were unnerving.
- I know I've told you before, but in 1941, San Jose played in Hawaii, and because of the war, couldn't get back home. The players were used as guards and watched the beaches for invasions from Japan.
