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When the votes are counted next Tuesday, we might see a major shake-up in the political balance of power in the Utah Legislature -- the first one in more than 20 years.
Our brand new poll results show two key races are too close to call, and it could be a sign of an anti-incumbent movement that will hurt once-untouchable Republicans.
We've been keeping an eye on House Speaker Greg Curtis' race, as well as the race for Sen. Chris Buttars' seat this year. In both cases, the Democrat challengers are as close to winning as they've ever been.
Republicans are expecting changes at the Legislature this year. Many in the majority party acknowledge that at least three seats in the House, and two or three in the Senate, could be lost to Democrats Tuesday.
A few Democrats, even in Utah, are riding Barack Obama's coattails. But there is something else too: A focus on ethics and behavior at the Capitol is spilling over into two high-profile seats.
For example, House Speaker Greg Curtis has never had such a close race. According to a Dan Jones poll of 306 voters in District 49, 45 percent say they'll re-elect the Speaker; 44 percent say they're supporting Democrat Jay Seegmiller this year.
Curtis told us today ethics questions account for some of the votes, but he also pointed to changing demographics in his district.
Sen. Chris Buttars -- controversial for remarks he made in the last session, calling one bill "a dark, ugly" baby -- is also facing an extremely tight race. He is up only two percentage points: 42 to 40 percent over Democrat John Rendell.
Other legislative seats vulnerable for change are also in Salt Lake County.
"The huge Republican majority is going to be tested, and I look for a very heavy turnout, and that means more Democrats are going to turn out than usual," political pollster Dan Jones said.
This year, legislative races will be the local races to watch on election night. The changes may not be enough to shift Republican dominance in the Legislature, but it could be enough to shake things up a bit.
In statewide races, Republicans will still dominate elected offices at the Capitol, according to the poll.
The poll shows Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon will likely win re-election over Republican challenger Micahel Renckert with 68 percent of the vote. The Democrat is enjoying popularity for being frugal and frank during his first term.
"He is very frank about what he'll do fiscally, and that's what people like about Mr. Corroon," Jones said.
Attorney General Mark Shurtleff has a healthy 66 to 22 percent lead over Democrat challenger Jean Welch Hill right now.
For State Treasurer, Republican Richard Ellis is favored over Democrat Dick Clark 53 to 28 percent.
The poll also shows Gov. Jon Huntsman would win in a landslide if the election were today: 77 percent over Democrat Bob Springmeyer.
Huntsman says he's ready to take on the economy and ethics that are bound to come up in the next session.
High-profile county commissioner Randy Horiuchi's lead is not so healthy, after years in office. He's holding his own -- 50 to 41 percent -- over Republican challenger Steve DeBry.
Meanwhile, the poll also shows people in Salt Lake County like exotic animals and birds. A "yes" vote on both Propositions 1 and 2 would raise property taxes to pay for improvements at the Tracy Avairy and the Hogle Zoo.
Just under 500 people in our poll overwhelmingly said "yes" to both: 68 percent for the Hogle Zoo bond, and 59 percent for the Tracy Aviary bond.
Together, property taxes would go up under $10 a year for the owner of an average home in Salt Lake County if both pass Tuesday.
E-mail: rpiatt@ksl.com
