BYU awaits unfamiliar postseason opportunity

PROVO — BYU's one-and-done exit from the West Coast Conference Championships signaled the end of two record-setting streaks for the program: after six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, and wins in three consecutive Big Dances, the Cougars will not see their name in the field of 68 on Selection Sunday.

Following his team's Friday night loss to San Diego in Las Vegas, head coach Dave Rose said "this is not just one loss. This is one of those losses where you realize that a lot of what you really worked six months for, is not going to happen." What should happen, after the NCAA Tournament field is filled, is an invitation for BYU to continue its season in the NIT.

With a current RPI in the high 60s and a record of 21-11, BYU's postseason portfolio is similar to that of many 2012 NIT entrants. Last season, 21 of the 32 teams had 11 losses or more, while only 14 of the 32 teams had more than 21 wins. Additionally, the average RPI in last year's field was 80, and only 13 of the 32 teams had RPIs in the 60s or better.

As it turned out in 2012, a team with an RPI of 68 (Seton Hall, at 20-12) was actually given a 1 seed, while a team with an RPI of 69 (St. Joseph's, at 20-13) was awarded a 2 seed. BYU will not merit a 1 or 2 in 2013, but it should make the field. Whether the Cougars' rough finish (losing three of their final four games) will prevent them from gaining a top-four seeding and first-round home game is a relevant question.

At least one NIT projection has BYU receiving a four seed, and placement in a region with Air Force. I also think it likely that BYU will find itself in a region with at least one former Mountain West Conference colleague.

Whether or not BYU gets a favored seeding and a cherished home game, the more pertinent question becomes: what kind of postseason run can this current Cougar team make in the NIT?

Rose said that "our players love to play, they love to compete, and after the sting wears off, if there is an opportunity to continue, I know they'll be ready—they'll be excited to go. But it takes a little bit of time" to get over last week's setback. Time is something the players will have had before receiving their Sunday night marching orders. Then, it will be time for postseason play, and for the first time since Rose's rookie season in 2005-06, it will be in a tournament other than the NCAAs.

Like in 2013, the NIT-bound 2006 Cougars also were knocked out of their conference tournament after only a single game; before last Friday, it was the last time lost its league tourney lid-lifter.

In 2006, BYU went from losing to Utah at the MWC tourney in Denver, to being drawn against Rose's alma mater in the NIT a few days later. Seeded sixth in the first year that the NIT seeded its field, the Cougars visited third-seeded Houston (banner photo, above), and lost 77-67. BYU was part of a 40-team NIT field that season; the following year, the NIT reduced its field size to 32 teams.

2006 was also the first year that the NIT was operated under the auspices of the NCAA, which mandated that regular season conference champions not earning bids to the NCAA Tournament receive automatic qualification for the NIT. In 2012, 11 of 32 teams were automatic qualifiers, while in 2013, six teams have already qualified for the NIT as regular season champs who failed to win their conference tourneys (Mercer, Robert Morris, Charleston Southern, Niagara, Stony Brook, Northeastern).

When looking back at that 2006 team, the first thing that jumps out was how loaded that roster was, and how it set the table for the consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances that would follow. Picked to finish last in the Mountain West in preseason polling, BYU proved the pollsters wrong, going 12-4 in the MWC, good for a second-place tie.

The 2005-06 team featured a conference Freshman of the Year (Trent Plaisted), two future MWC Players of the Year (Keena Young and Lee Cummard), a future MWC Defensive Player of the Year (Jackson Emery), and four eventual members of BYU's '1,000-Point Club' (Cummard, Plaisted, Emery and Young). Three of the players on that team are in the top six on BYU's list of career three-pointers made (Emery, Mike Rose and Cummard), two of them are in the Cougars' career top ten in assists (Cummard and Austin Ainge), and two are among BYU's top ten in steals (Emery and Cummard). In short, that 2005-06 team had a ton of talent—-and potential.

Before his team's NIT game in 2006, Rose said "the majority of our players are returning next year. We set some really important goals this year that our guys have met. This is a chance to prepare ourselves for the future. Getting postseason experience now is our advantage for next year." The next year, BYU went 25-9, won the MWC and lost an NCAA Tournament First Round nail-biter to Xavier.

There was only one senior on that that 2005-06 team: former walk-on Brock Reichner, who ended up second to Plaisted in scoring and led the team in three-point makes. Cummard, Plaisted and Emery were all freshmen. Young, Ainge and Jimmy Balderson were juniors who would return to start the following season, with fellow juniors Mike Rose and Fernando Malaman back to come off the bench in their senior years.

Flashing forward, BYU's pre-NIT cupboard isn't as fully-stocked in 2013 as it was in 2006, as three senior starters will graduate and the current BYU bench doesn't have a Lee Cummard waiting in the wings, or a Mike Rose ready to drop bombs, or a steady backup point guard like Austin Ainge, or a double-digit scorer like Balderson picking his spots.

What the current team does have are two all-conference and all-district players in Brandon Davies and Tyler Haws, both of whom will find themselves in many of BYU's career top ten lists, with Haws pacing to become the school's all-time scoring leader. Matt Carlino's assist and steal numbers are tracking for solid career marks, and while his inconsistency has been an issue, he is only a sophomore, and progress can be expected as he matures.

Davies joins with Brock Zylstra and Craig Cusick to provide senior leadership, but after the "Big Three" of Davies, Haws and Carlino, BYU doesn't possess the depth of talent that carried the 2005-06 team into the NIT and then onward, forming the first links in a chain of seasons that would be considered the most successful in BYU Basketball history.

For BYU to make noise in the 2013 NIT will require not only that BYU's stars shine, but that players who have previously struggled to make their mark find a second wind and make an impact.

In Las Vegas, on a night when Davies, Haws and Carlino combined for 53 points against USD, the rest of the team managed only 16, with the bench contributing a season-low six points. Such a performance will likely not get it done during the postseason, whether BYU is playing at home or on the road.

If the 2005-06 team symbolized a program on the rise, the 2012-13 squad shows the Cougars at a crossroads. Haws and Carlino represent a promising backcourt nucleus, but supplementary guard-line hopes may not necessarily be found on the current roster; indeed, they may be best realized in the return of Kyle Collinsworth and the acquisition of Skyler Halford.

Juco transfer Raul Delgado was thought to have filled a need on the perimeter, but his sub-par junior season has prompted more questions than answers. Fellow transfer Agustin Ambrosino is part of a group of front-court reserves that has struggled to distinguish itself as a collective. Nate Austin's offseason surgery clearly set him back to where the kind of progress that could have been expected from him was not in evidence. Josh Sharp's energy is not currently matched by his physiology, making it difficult for him to occupy BYU's traditional role at power forward. Ian Harward has dealt with back issues, but when healthy has fallen out of favor in the rotation up front.

Improvement should be expected from the aforementioned experienced returners, but again, newcomers may be the ones to provide the most promise, as signed high school seniors Eric Mika (6'10", 220 lb., center) and Luke Worthington (6'8", 240 lb., power forward) join the program next season. Both will be given every chance to earn major roles on next year's team, because they possess particular skills of which the 2013-14 Cougars will be in need.

Rose still has at least one open 2013-14 scholarship with which to work, and an offer has been extended to SLCC forward Sai Tummala, a 6'6", 215 lb. forward who, next to Halford, is considered the second-best player one of the top ten junior college teams in the country. Whether other scholarships will become available is impossible to predict, given that unexpected developments seem to occur annually in the college hoops offseason.

We may not be able to accurately forecast the composition of next season's roster today, but I am certain that this season's challenges will motivate Rose and whichever players suit up to ensure that the 2012-13 campaign is not only a rare exception, but in one way or another, a table-setter for future successes.

In the meantime, there is more basketball to play for the current Cougars, with an NIT invite likely on the weekend. Rose is hoping for some success, and perhaps even some synchronicity, knowing that the NIT finishes up with its final four at Madison Square Garden.

"It's interesting. We started this season in New York (games against Florida State and Notre Dame in mid-November), and maybe if we get a bid in this tournament and play well, we can end our season there."

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Photos: Courtesy Thomas Shea (NIT) and BYU Photo

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