Derrick Favors' struggling season, and what comes next

SALT LAKE CITY — Let's start with something we can all agree on: Derrick Favors hasn't been as impactful of a player this season for the Utah Jazz. In the 2015-16 season, the Jazz were putting efforts into an All-Star campaign for him, before he missed a month in the middle of the season due to back issues.

This season, that hasn't been the case at all. Favors is averaging just 9.2 points and 6.1 rebounds in 23.5 minutes per game. He's dropped from 19th to 43rd among power forwards in ESPN's RPM statistic. If you prefer Win Shares, he's added just 2.1 of those this year, compared to 8.3 and 7.1 in the previous two seasons.

Of course, there's an explanation for all this: Favors very transparently has been playing injured all season long. First of all, he's missed 17 games this season thanks to the knee injuries, dubbed variously a "left knee bone contusion," "left knee IT band syndrome," or just plain old "left knee soreness." That's after missing the end of the season last year due to "right knee soreness."

But even when he has been able to play, he clearly doesn't run as fast, doesn't cut as sharply and doesn't jump as high as seasons previous. Favors wears knee protection on both knees during games, ices both knees after games and gingerly walks up and down stairs on off-days, using the hand rail. Watching him do this, it's hard to believe he's just 25 years old.

The relevant question here is: When will Favors be healthy again? "That's a hard thing, I think. It's hard to define 100 percent," said Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder when asked about it two weeks ago.

Players normally point to the All-Star break as a time when they get a much-needed break to recuperate from any nagging injuries they have. But eight days off for Favors doesn't seem incredibly promising. After all, thanks to a well-timed stretch of rest, Favors had eight days off two weeks ago, and has still just averaged 8.7 points per game in seven games since. And over the season, his worst games have come when the Jazz have had two or three days off. His highest scoring averages come on the second night of back to backs.

But even longer breaks haven't been effective. That monthlong break didn't bring Favors any closer to his on-court form: it took him 11 games to score over double figures after coming back. And remember, all of this is coming after a full offseason which Favors didn't return healthy from. Favors played just one game in the preseason due to his knee issues.

The Jazz haven't been forthcoming about Favors' offseason, but something is unusual. "We knew that we were going to hit the season and have to manage Derrick and his condition," Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey told 1280 The Zone last week. "There's nothing that's surgical that needs to be done or anything like that, but there were a couple of things that he needed to take care of in the offseason and it was clear that we needed to manage his way."

Lindsey spun it as a positive, complimenting the work Favors had done to reduce his weight from 274 pounds coming into the season to 259 pounds now, but it's still unclear why Favors wasn't healthy from day 1. "Derrick put in really good work this offseason, but he was limited," Lindsey said.

Honestly, given that nothing is surgically wrong and long periods of rest don't seem to completely heal Favors, some around the team worry that Favors won't ever get back to being the explosive player that he once was. If there was an issue that could be surgically repaired, that'd be one thing, but without a smoking gun that can be repaired, it's hard to have much confidence that the situation will get better. Favors wouldn't be the first big man to have knee issues that permanently changed a career, even at age 25, and he wouldn't be the last.

The injury issues have had another effect, though: They've concealed how much Favors' role has changed in the shadow of Rudy Gobert's development.

First of all, Favors' primary job is no longer that of starting power forward, but of backup center. Favors has played 938 minutes this season, and only 46 percent of them at the power forward spot next to Gobert. Fifty-four percent of the time, he's playing center without Gobert on the court. Snyder seems to craft his rotations to give Favors every single one of the minutes at the center position when Gobert is off the floor.

With Gobert on the court, it makes sense to give him the ball. When he gets the ball in pick-and-roll situations, the lanky Frenchman's averaging 1.45 points per possession, second best in the league. On the other hand, when Favors gets the ball in roll situations, he's averaging 0.93 points per possession, 32nd percentile. Last season, Favors averaged 1.11 points per possession, a good number that was best on the Jazz, but Gobert's ascension to elite makes it a no-brainer to run pick and rolls with him instead.

That means Favors' touches have drastically decreased this season. Favors touches the ball 25 times per game in the front court this year; last year, it was 45 times per game. And in order to touch the ball at all, he's had to change his movement. "A lot of times what he's doing now is popping, and that makes sense if he's in the game with Rudy if Rudy's rolling," Snyder explained.

But popping isn't a natural fit for Favors, who's a career 33 percent shooter from distances outside of 3 feet. He has definitely improved there and is having his best season with his jump shot, but it's still not an efficient action overall until he can legitimately extend his range to beyond the 3-point line.

When Gobert's out of the game, the Jazz can have Favors roll more, but then he's likely depending on Dante Exum, Alec Burks, or Joe Johnson to get him the ball, none of who are reliable interior passers. Post-ups are another option, but Snyder's system isn't really designed to create post-up looks for any player.

The result is a frustrated Favors. When he has stretches where he doesn't feel involved in the offense, he'll force up looks when he does finally get a taste of the ball.

Here's the Favors rebound and quick two that Snyder didn't seem too happy about: pic.twitter.com/KlRWgM69Vo — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) January 25, 2017

The biggest surprise with regards to Favors is just how little he plays at the end of games. Even including last season, when he was healthy, Snyder [rarely goes with Favors on the court](http://alexwainger.github.io/NBASubstitutionPatterns/) down the stretch.

It's easy to explain why: the lineups with Hill, Hayward and Gobert simply perform better with Boris Diaw, Joe Johnson, or even Trey Lyles in the game over Favors.

All of this analysis comes in the context of the decisions to be made about Favors' future in Utah. Favors' very reasonable $12 million per year contract runs out in the summer of 2018, and he has been eligible for an extension all season long. But due to worrying injuries and his play, the Jazz haven't been particularly interested in signing him to a long-term extension beyond 2018. That's especially true given that Rodney Hood and Dante Exum will need big raises that year if they're to remain on the Jazz's roster.

And from Favors' point of view, if things continue the way they are, he doesn't imagine staying in Utah either. He's not finishing games, and his role in the offense has been usurped. The mother of his children just opened a luxury goods store in Atlanta. He's been positive publicly, but privately, he's wondering: Why stay?

So if a departure is likely, the Jazz should at least look into getting something in return for him, rather than letting him walk for free. There are three major time options to move him in (this season's trade deadline, the offseason and next season's trade deadline) cases to be made for all three.

Waiting until the deadline next year would give Favors more of an opportunity to raise his value after an offseason where he might be able to get healthy. Moving Favors during the offseason would give the Jazz the most flexibility, and potentially with the knowledge of if they'll still have George Hill and Gordon Hayward moving forward.

But trading him at this deadline makes sense too. This playoff push looks like a critical opportunity to incentivize Hill and Hayward to stay: it's a lot easier to leave a team that loses in the first round quickly than one that's closer to the cusp of contention.

There's a case to be made that the Jazz need Favors to defend the elite power forwards that they're likely to meet in the first round if they face either the Clippers or Grizzlies. But watching Favors struggle to cover Blake Griffin (and even Jusuf Nurkic's relative success with Portland) this week, and thinking about the Warriors' formula for success against the Clippers (small ball spacing), has hurt that case a little bit in my eyes. It might be best to play opponents' big lineups off the floor with spacing, not by trying to match their size.

What the Jazz really would like is a reliable four who can space the floor and not get toasted on defense. There aren't that many of those, but there are some. The Raptors just traded for one of them on the market, Serge Ibaka. That crosses one off the list, but also revealed some information about which power forwards might be available.

The Sporting News reported that the Raptors had trade discussions on Ibaka, the Bulls' Taj Gibson, and the Nuggets' Danilo Gallinari. Gibson doesn't space the floor, really, but is an excellent defensive power forward. Gallinari might be a much better fit: he can really shoot from outside, gets to the foul line frequently, and is a decent defender.

On the other hand, the Nuggets' trade to lose a first-round pick to acquire Mason Plumlee signaled a desire for Denver to win now. But the Nuggets have done fine without him in the lineup (4-4), and Juancho Hernangomez has done some nice things starting in his place. Gallinari has an option to opt out of his deal after this season, which he'll probably use. The Nuggets would probably prefer to trade Darrell Arthur or Kenneth Faried instead, but those players fix fewer of the Jazz's problems. Arthur would be a nice bench bonus for the Jazz. Faried would be too, but he abhors coming off the bench.

It would be nice if the Raptors traded Patrick Patterson now that they have Ibaka, but that would probably be giving too much trust to Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl, and they too are probably focused on winning now.

The Pelicans and Pistons are both rumored to be looking to make changes. Terrence Jones of the Pelicans might be available, but he's struggled with his shot this year. Jon Leuer has always been underrated in my eyes, but he's been playing an increasing role for the Pistons recently. Still, maybe he could be had. Perhaps you could convince Larry Bird to trade away the Pacers' Thaddeus Young? That team is really confusing right now.

Including Favors in these deals right now is difficult, due to his injury situation and just the state of the league. DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony pointed out in his latest look at the draft that there's an overabundance of big men in the league right now. Seventy-seven players 6-foot-9 or taller are playing fewer than 15 minutes per game in the NBA right now, in other words, every team has an average of 2.5 big men who just don't really get time.

So these deals will likely have to involve other assets to get them done. The Jazz have lots of extra point guards, and you get the feeling that Alec Burks would be available if a team insisted on him. But mostly, first-round picks are going to be the currency here. The Jazz have their own, likely to end up around the No. 25 selection in this year's draft. They also have the Warriors' pick, almost certainly No. 30. This is a very good draft, so those assets have more value than they perhaps otherwise would. Of course, that's also a good reason to keep them.

In the end, I do think that it's likely that the Jazz are involved in a power forward deal at the deadline, with or without Favors. All of the Jazz's options have just been so inconsistent, and it's the most obvious space for improvement as the Jazz enter the break.

Overall, the biggest feeling is that it's just bad luck for Favors and Utah. For his injury issues to have hit him now, just as the rest of the Jazz have put it together, is such a shame for a really likable and talented player.

But the reality of the NBA is that things don't always go to plan. What is the Jazz's plan B?

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