PROVO — In 2011, after a shift in the college football landscape that saw the University of Utah and Texas Christian University join major conferences, one thing seemed certain, more conference realignment seemed inevitable.

With that in mind, BYU’s move away from the Mountain West Conference and into independence was logical. The Cougars eliminated any future roadblocks, be it conference alignment, television rights, buyouts or academic and institutional inadequacies. BYU placed itself on par with most of college football’s power conference programs.

And it’s not just off the field. BYU has done plenty of winning on the field to prove its worthiness. BYU’s 93 wins over the last 10 years comes second only to Boise State’s 113 when examining rumored conference expansion candidates.

In an article from CBS Sports, Max Weitzenhoffer, chairman of the Oklahoma Sooners board of regents, complained that when looking at expansion candidates, including BYU, “They have no seating capacities in their stadiums. They really don't build them up. They really don't have any TV. I really don't know what we have to gain by that."

That is true for most of the candidates, but not BYU. The Cougars today would have the third largest stadium in the Big 12, behind only Texas and Oklahoma. The Cougars have proven capable of supporting not only their own television station, but sport a lucrative deal with ESPN as well, reportedly earning between $800,000 and $1.2 million per home game for the life of the contract.

When it comes to making a case for BYU to join the Big 12, all the evidence is there. And that’s to make no mention of the Cougars' historical success on the field, both in individual achievements and achievements as a team.

So who is BYU to blame for lack of inclusion to a Power 5 conference? Maybe it’s the teams that surround them.

For the most part, when conferences have added new teams, they’ve done so in even numbers. There are exceptions, as Nebraska joined the Big 10 in 2011, they did so without a partner, though it is worth noting the Big 12 previously had an odd number of teams with 11. When Maryland joined the conference, Rutgers was brought along for parity.

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Kalani Sitake was hired at an ideal time for BYU football and its fans. The new head coach assumed his position leading the Cougars after a 35-28 loss in the Las Vegas Bowl to their rivals at the University of Utah.

When Colorado left the Big 12 for the Pac-12, the Pacific Athletic Conference brought Utah along as well to form an even 12.

TCU and West Virginia partnered to join the Big 12, while Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC.

It’s possible BYU is the prettiest girl at the ball, and there’s nobody left to dance with.

Geography certainly plays a role in conference expansion, as West Virginia is already a member of the Big 12 in the Eastern Time zone. Adding a team in the Mountain Time zone would prove difficult for non-revenue producing sports.

BYU’s most likely travel partner out West would be either Colorado State or Boise State, and while the Broncos of Boise State certainly provide a name on the football field, they would have the smallest seating capacity in the conference by roughly 8,000 seats. In addition, Boise is a difficult city to travel to, and brings little in regards to non-football sports.

Colorado State recently committed to a $210 million upgrade to its football stadium, which would still leave the overall capacity (41,000) 4,000 short of the smallest Big 12 stadium. Their results on the field haven’t been great either, averaging just 5.2 wins per season over the last 10 years, with only four bowl appearances.

Houston could be a travel partner, though the schools are over 1,100 miles apart. The other Texas schools in the Big 12 appear to have some reserve about adding yet another team in the area to fight over recruits. And if Houston was added, both Cincinnati and Memphis make more sense as travel partners.

The problems with independence still are what they once were. Lack of a conference affiliation means no fight for a conference championship, outside of Notre Dame, no independent team is represented by the College Football Playoff Committee, and as the Power 5 continues to accrue higher revenue, BYU’s lack of collective bargaining power may create a more noticeable gap in financial competitiveness.

Ultimately, as Max Weitzenhoffer said, in regards to conference expansion candidates, “they start getting all this money, then what do we do? We build up somebody we don't want to build up." There simply may be too little to gain by expanding beyond 10 teams.

Moving to independence was the right move for BYU, as it eliminated potential expansion roadblocks and upped its national exposure, but despite placing its chips in all the right places, BYU’s Big 12 gamble may never pay off.

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